Word is that the USA has asked Taiwan to hold off on the F-16 request for now to avoid a direct “no.” Reports suggest that a strong lobbying effort from China is dooming that effort, even as the PLAAF continues to add aircraft like the 4+ generation J-10 and equally advanced long-range SU-27 family fighters to its arsenal.
Chinese diplomacy has certainly stalled the much more complicated effort to find a party who is (a) able to make diesel-electric subs; and (b) is willing to sell them to Taiwan. The Republic of China currently relies on 2 submarines that are too old for anything but training missions, and 2 Hai Lung (Sea dragon) class submarines ordered from the Dutch firm Rotterdamsche Droogdok Maatschappij (RDM) in 1981 as a derivative of their Zwaardvis (Swordfish) class. A follow-on order for 4 more was blocked by the Dutch government in 1992 thanks to Chinese pressure, and RDM went out of business a few years later. Since then, Taiwan has explored a number of alternatives to obtain diesel-electric submarines, thus far without success.
Can these release and approval of existing orders help break the F-16 logjam eventually? Can the broader US-Taiwan defense relationship be saved, or is it eroding fatally?
Who'd have thought that America won't supply anything Taiwan needs? But then, I'd have thought France would sell to anyone. But no more. Not to mention the Dutch and other Europeans. So with Europe denying Taiwan advanced weapons, is it really safe for Taiwan to assume America won't succumb to pressure from an increasingly influential China?
The Taiwanese would be wise to approach Russia about the submarines. Russia does have a motive to arm China's neighbors, after all. And if the Taiwanese can't get F-16s from us in a reasonable amount of time, Taiwan might want to go Russian in the air as well.
UPDATE: This article reinforces my points:
Taiwan, which has seen its military superiority over China gradually slip over the past few years on the back of a massive rise in Chinese defence spending, urgently wants to get its hands on advanced F-16 fighter jets and submarines.
And:
The United States, wary of upsetting Beijing too much, has refused to sell Taiwan top-of-the-line weapons before, including air-to-air missiles and advanced warships.
"In terms of military modernisation, we're trying to catch up," said George Tsai, political scientist at Taipei's Chinese Cultural University. "But the U.S. has its own calculations."
That is, Taiwan needs weapons that they may not be able to get from America. We rightly have our own calculations to make, since our foreign policy is about promoting our interests. I happen to think that our interests require us to keep China from conquering or intimidating Taiwan, of course. But our calculations surely involve getting China's help on other issues, convincing them not to harm our interests, and basic commercial and financial calculations, which may convince us that we can shave off some weapons systems to protect those interests without (hopefully) critically undermining Taiwanese defenses.
If we won't supply specific weapons to Taiwan for whatever reason, Taiwan too needs to make its own calculations on purchases and might turn to Russia. Heck, depending on our calculations, we might be happy if Taiwan did that.
UPDATE: Well what do you know? Taiwan has opened up a supplier in Europe:
The Taiwan deal with Eurocopter, a subsidiary of German-based EADS, could strain China-European relations which, like Sino-U.S. ties, have been hurt by trade disputes and the value of the Chinese currency.
European arms sales to the self-ruled island that Beijing considers a breakaway province of China have dried up in the past 17 years due to their political sensitivity, although EU-Taiwan trade ties are generally strong.
It is only a deal for 20 search and rescue helicopters rather than armed ones, but it is a non-U.S. supplier. Taiwan could use more of that.
