Friday, December 04, 2009

Regional Pier Competitor

If the Russians manage to rebuild their military power, and if they move into the hostile rather than friendly category, we can at least take comfort that they are both pushed east and that they will be a regional power (granted, the regions would be "Eurasia") lacking the ability to cut the lines of supply between North America and European NATO:

The Russian public is becoming aware of the fact that they won't have much of a navy in 5-10 years. The problem is that, in that period, most of the Cold War era warships that now comprise the fleet, will have to be retired. These ships are falling apart, as there was not any money, since the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, for repairs and upgrades. The Russian parliament is calling for more money, to build enough surface ships to maintain a respectable fleet. That is proving difficult. ...

The new fleet, even if construction picks up, will be much smaller. The Russian fleet will go from 170 ships and subs now, to less than a third of that. This is not popular with most Russians, but the money, capability and will is not there to do much more.

The Soviets during the Cold War needed to cut off American and Canadian reinforcements from reaching the front if the Red Army was to win a war. A much smaller Russian army would now have to face the prospect of facing major ground reinforcements arriving if the war lasted long enough, since the Russian fleet will be hard pressed to defend their long coast let alone project power into the North Atlantic.

Not that the Russians should be viewing NATO as a potential enemy. The Russians really should worry more about their Far East and China. Heck, if Moscow could get that reality through their thick skulls, I'd welcome a modernized Russian military.