Friday, December 04, 2009

No Excuses

Given that General McChrystal asked for 40,000 troops, I found it a little odd that our president didn't grant that request. If we end up losing (and there is no reason we can't win, I should add), it would be easy for critics to claim that a decision to send only 35,000--or 30,000 in this case--was the cause of our defeat. For want of a nail, and all that. I disagree with that simple causation speculation, but it would be a simple matter to protect himself from any charge that he shortchanged the surge by instead sending 40,000 as requested.

But he did not. Our allies, of course, can make up the difference, right?

"Nations are backing up their words with deeds," NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told a news conference after talks with NATO foreign ministers.

"At least 25 countries will send more forces to the mission in 2010. They have offered around 7,000 new forces with more to come ... That is solidarity in action and it will have a powerful effect on the ground."

Oh, so close. That only gets us to 37,000 and not 40,000. On such small numbers, accusations of losing Afghanistan could rest.

But our 30,000 isn't just 30,000, per the president's order for the surge:

Gates can increase the number by 10 percent, or 3,000 troops, without additional White House approval or announcement, the official said, adding that "this authority is designed to give him the flexibility to better manage the force and provide the commander with additional resources."

A senior military official said that the final number could go as high as 35,000 to allow for additional support personnel such as engineers, medevac units and route-clearance teams, which comb roads for bombs. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss understandings between the Pentagon and the White House.

Interesting. This makes sense though I confess I don't undestand how ten percent can get us as high as 35,000. But I'm just an ex-math major. Regardless of that, we will get the 3,000 gap closed, at least. So we'll have the troops numbers we need--assuming the allied contingents can actually replace what American troops would do.

And as an aside, this article mentions the 71,000 US troops in Afghanistan figure I've seen lately:
 
In a pre-speech briefing Tuesday, a senior administration official said 33,000 new troops had been "committed this year" -- a total that the Pentagon said included 11,000 authorized in the waning days of the Bush administration and deployed this year, and 21,700 authorized and deployed by Obama.


That adds up to 64,700, short of the 68,000 often cited by administration officials as the current troop level. The Pentagon says more than 71,000 American troops were in Afghanistan at the end of November.
 
That 71K is a figure for troops on the ground at the end of November which probably includes troops coming in as others go out so there is overlap as troops rotate. I'll stick with 68,000 as the best figure. But it actually is a difficult number to nail down. So don't worry about the precise number cited.

Besides, how we use the troops (and whether we have the will to use them to win) and not the precise number in battle is the important thing. This isn't engineering where we can calculate safety factors with margins of error. Or calculate when we will win, of course.