Saturday, October 17, 2009

Is This the Beginning of the End?

Thirty thousand Pakistani troops are moving into South Waziristan in another effort to take down the Taliban that threaten both Pakistan and Afghanistan:

After months of aerial bombing, troops moved into the region Saturday from several directions, heading to the insurgent bases of Ladha and Makeen among other targets, intelligence and military officials said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic or because they were not allowed to brief the media.

They said the operation was expected to last around two months.

Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas confirmed Saturday evening that a full-fledged ground operation was under way and said that it aimed to "uproot" the Pakistani Taliban. He said it was too early to discuss what sort of resistance the army was meeting.


The Pakistanis have been intermittently trying to defeat their Taliban (and al Qaeda allies), but have always backed off before the job was done. I imagine our $7.5 billion aid package is designed to keep the Pakistanis at it until they win. We've certainly been working to get the Pakistanis to keep at the job.

The recent Taliban bombing effort apparently failed to halt the attack. We'll see if Pakistani morale holds. Opinion polls so far show good support for fighting the jihadis, according to the article.

And we'll see if Pakistan's efforts encourage President Obama to commit American forces to finish the job on Afghanistan's side of the border.

I can see both America and Pakistan as being reluctant to commit troops and suffer casualties only to see the other fail to control their side of the border. The problem is that Afghanistan can be the rear area sanctuary for Pakistan's Taliban as much as Pakistan is a sanctuary for Afghan jihadis. And the current offensive appears to mean that our summer effort to convince Pakistan that we're in this to win paid off.

I can't imagine that our renewed debate on winning in Afghanistan was terribly helpful in getting Pakistan to move. Unless it is a good cop/bad cop move to persuade Pakistan to move lest our president use Pakistani passivity as an excuse to back off his until recent commitment to win in Afghanistan. Maybe this offensive means we have checked off a box on the checklist to sending more troops.

Right now, the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater is ground zero for the jihad. If America/NATO and Pakistan are resolute and grant no quarter to our enemies, could this be the beginning of the last jihad?