Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Don't Forget Phase Four

The Pakistanis hope to smash the Taliban in South Waziristan very quickly:

Army officers said their strategy was to use fighter jets and helicopter gunships to defeat the militants within the next two weeks.

They said they hoped to use overwhelming force to ensure the campaign did not drift into the winter or turn into a drawn-out guerrilla war.


No doubt it would be nice if the Pakistani military could inflict crippling casualties on the Taliban while they are initially willing to stand and fight. I have no doubt that Pakistani troops can rapidly reach their geographic objectives.

But I don't think the three-week offensive crushes the Taliban. Enough will survive to carry on and the Pakistanis won't be spared a winter campaign to suppress the Taliban and defeat them over time.

The Pakistanis can't replace persistence with firepower if they truly intend to exert enough control to prevent jihadis from using the area as a sanctuary to attack Pakistani cities and Afghanistan.

This might be just another traditional punitive expedition designed just to cow the unfriendly tribes for a year or two.