Buying Time

It is too easy to believe that the NIE report that is being seized on by some to weaken our pressure on Iran is part of a deep plan to actually confront Iran.

Indeed, with the Annapolis meeting to address the Palestinian question just held (I believe I blogged exactly zero on this event), it is easy for me to buy something like this. My personal view is that convening something like the Annapolis meeting is really just a box to be checked when you really want to do something else. Addressing the Palestinian issue (man, have they got issues) provides that needed cover for others to work with us on what we really want to do when many will insist we must solve the Palestinian question first.

Yet forcing a confrontation with Iran with an obviously flawed NIE seems like too big of a goal. I've thought I've seen dots for the past several years indicating a strike on Iran is darn-near imminent. I have been wrong repeatedly. In reality, it appears we really do seem to be preparing to contain Iran and prepare for strikes only when the dullest can be persuaded that Iran is a threat.

But what if there was a plan--but just a smaller plan. Already, I thought I could see some sort of border deal between Iraq and Iran that stops Iranian support for Sadr's boys.

What if President Bush believes we need to buy less time to settle Iraq than Iran needs to build nuclear weapons?

Wouldn't Iran have incentive to behave in Iraq lest the Iranians give us an excuse to bomb Iran over that issue when the NIE seems to have taken strikes on Iran over nuclear weapons off the table?

Which would still leave us time to turn back to addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions?

Still, the simplest explanation is usually the best. And the simple explanation is that politicized leaders at the CIA undermined our efforts to keep pressure on Iran to halt their nuclear programs. So somebody bought time. The simple explanation is that Iran did the buying.

But you never know. Well, I never seem to, anyway.