Saturday, December 08, 2007

You Can't Go Home Again

Al Qaeda is running north to the general Mosul region. I figured that the jihadis would have a rougher time than they did three years ago when they ran from Fallujah.

Lieutenant General Carter Ham certainly agrees that the area will be much tougher for the jihadis to operate in:

A question about Iraq. We're told that al Qaeda has to some degree reasserted itself in the north part of the country, having been squeezed out of central Iraq and western Iraq. Is this an indication that they're taking their last stand, making their last stand in Iraq? Or is this another case of them being squeezed out of one area, reappearing in another, only to be squeezed out and show up somewhere else? Is it a continuation of that pattern, or in fact are they making a last stand?

GEN. HAM: I don't think, Bob, that anybody would take the point yet to say this is a last stand, but very clearly there are places in Iraq, in Anbar and in Baghdad, which are increasingly inhospitable to al Qaeda in Iraq. And so it's clear to us that they are seeking other opportunities, and one of their places that over the past weeks it appears that they are trying to reestablish themselves is in the northern areas of Iraq, particularly along the Tigris River Valley, and specifically in and around Mosul.

Conditions in that area have changed considerably since al Qaeda was last influential in that area, and I think what they are finding is -- are increasingly capable Iraqi security forces, both Iraqi army and Iraqi police.

And though al Qaeda is specifically targeting them this time, it appears, they are finding those forces much more resistant to the influences and to the attacks.

So yes, there is concern and there has been some indication that al Qaeda in Iraq is trying to increase their level of activity in the northern portion of Iraq. We're seeing so far that the Iraqi security forces are handling that pretty well, but certainly too soon to say that it's last stand.


There are only so many places they can run and increased Iraqi capabilities and the continuing presence of most surge brigades make settling in anywhere much harder. And while the jihadis run, they are easier to kill.

Defeating the jihadis isn't the only task we have, but they are one of the more deadly threats we must defeat. They are going down.