Historic military exercises signal Sino-Russian intentions.
From 18-25 August almost 10,000 Russo-Chinese troops participated in unprecedented joint exercises in Russia and China. -Although ostensibly an anti-terrorist operation, the scale and scope of these exercises suggest other motives: anti-US collaboration in Asia, Russia's desire to showcase weapons for sales to China, and China's rehearsal of operations in and around Taiwan -However, examination of these exercises also suggests an often overlooked dimension, namely a joint desire to deter or counter potential US operations against North Korea
[Jane's Foreign Report - first posted to http://frp.janes.com/ – 6
September 2005]
Well this is interesting for a number of reasons, if true. One, for all the talk of Iraq War opponents that Iraq has weakened us for any other contingency (as if those opponents would support any military action outside of New Orleans, but I digress), foreigners looking at our military power don't seem to think we are hobbled. For goodness sake, the Russians and Chinese apparently think we could invade North Korea! They think they need to deter us and plan for action if we aren't deterred.
Second, the fact that either country thinks it would be a good idea to come to the rescue of that abomination in Pyongyang says a lot about Moscow and Peking. They have lovely friends, eh?
Third, if true, what does this say about Chinese intervention plans? I'm assuming Russia just wants to sell the weapons that would be used. Airborne and amphibious training suggests not so much an invasion to intervene on the side of North Korea as it suggests a land grab. An intervention to defend the Northern regime would require lots of troops coming in overland followed by the logistics to sustain them. Amphibious and airborne moves, by contrast, would allow for planting tripwires as far south as possible that are designed to halt US and ROK movement to the north for fear of sparking a wider war. Such a presence can be light on power and logistics. Is Russia showing China how to pull a Kosovo in Korea? Remember that following the Kosovo War the Russians sent forces from Bosnia into Kosovo uninvited to carve out an occupation zone to bolster their Slavic brethren against NATO occupation. This lessens the second point, of course, since the rescue would only be a partial rescue to keep a rump Kimmunist state alive even as the South Koreans and US forces bit off a chunk of the North's territory.
Fourth, if this is a land grab, I wonder if the thinking in Peking and Moscow isn't so much fear of our invasion but of a North Korean collapse followed by a ROK/US intervention to restore order? Surely, the Russians and Chinese must know that even though our power is hardly depleted, South Korea is not about to support an invasion of the North; and even if we did invade, we'd need to have a lot more than the one brigade of Army troops we have on hand to carry out an invasion. This lessens the first thought, though no completely. The Russians and Chinese could realize Iraq complicates our actions without crippling our options.
Fifth, if true, it shows that waiting for a North Korean collapse just isn't a hope based on nothing. China would clearly prefer to have North Korea continue as is to be a nuclear threat against Japan and America. Otherwise they wouldn't have propped up the North like they have. But the status quo may not be possible. The Russians and/or Chinese may have reason to believe a collapse is coming based on their far more intimate knowledge of conditions inside Pyongyang.
If the joint exercises are not solely aimed at Taiwan and have a North Korean component, I guess the planning is a Korean Kosovo to keep the US from marching to the Yalu River and not a defense of the regime.
My idea of partitioning North Korea could effectively be in play.
