As I asked recently, what has Russia really won in Syria?
The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.
Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.
More broadly, I am totally committed to the idea that Russia is actually effing up their foreign policy royally, as I've addressed again and again and again and again and again and again and again.
And that's not an exhaustive list. I just stopped at the first search page and didn't follow any links! Seriously people, the Fuck-up Fair lives in Russia now year round.
And don't even get me started on the over-hyped "hybrid warfare" salute to Russian so-called genius.
This author has my six on this issue:
In the West, liberals and conservatives alike seem to agree that Russia has reemerged as a great power with a global reach. And in Russia itself, well-known foreign-policy experts assert that the West had best get used to their country’s resurgence. ...
Of course, Russia matters. A country with 144 million people, thousands of nuclear warheads, a million active troops, vast oil and gas reserves, and a U.N. Security Council seat will always matter, and observers shouldn’t be surprised when it vigorously pursues its interests abroad and in ways that challenge the West.
That said, Moscow’s strategic acumen and tangible gains aren’t nearly as dazzling as the consensus suggests. Understanding that requires a clear-eyed look at both sides of the ledger.
And for the Middle East, this author is on board the Putin skeptic train, too:
The collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago meant that its once-formidable presence in the Middle East collapsed as well. Today, however, as the United States has withdrawn from the region, Russia has rushed to recapture the Soviet Union’s position there, through a combination of military force, arms deals, strategic partnerships and the deployment of soft power. But its success is being significantly overestimated.
Although I disagree with the idea that America has withdrawn from the region (although the author correctly caveats that). Oddly, there is an idea floating out there that America is unbalanced toward the region.
Of course, the idea that Russia is surging in the Middle East is tied to the false notion that America is in retreat in the region. The fact that we no longer need hundreds of thousands of troops to defend our interests isn't a sign of weakness--it's a sign we achieved things with our military commitments.
The Russians strut about beating their nuclear chest and flinging hybrid poo. They are dangerous. But keep some perspective. Russia is a regional military power with plenty of internal problems.
And despite their intensely annoying nature that requires us to guard against them doing something dangerously stupid in Europe, we do have an interest in splitting Russia from China. And so do the Russians. Only China would be happy with a US-Russia war.
