Thursday, July 13, 2017

Operation Cautious Calm

A wall to passively defend Israel in the north from Hezbollah attacks and a hint that Israel might strike an Iranian-supplied missile factory in Lebanon could just be misdirection by Israel.

The fear of infiltration and intrusion is behind the Israeli decision to build the wall for about 20 kilometers in areas defined by Israel as "sensitive areas," such as the settlement of al-Mutla, opposite the tents and the Naqoura area.

This is due to Israel's belief that Hezbollah will try to occupy border settlements and hold hostages in the next war. ...

Israel has finally hinted that it might target what it says is a missile and ammunition factory set up by Iran in Lebanon for Hezbollah, which could ignite a war.

If I was in charge of Israel's military actions, and if I was going to launch a months-long multi-division ground and air raid deep into Lebanon to seriously damage Hezbollah while the terror group is committed to the multi-war in Syria, I'd make it seem like I wanted to passively defend the border and perhaps launch a point strike inside Lebanon:

I think (and have long thought) that if timed right, Israel can advance into Lebanon on several axes while the fortifications allow Israeli troops on the border to hold the line against enemy thrusts into Israel; and will be useful once the Israelis withdraw back to the border after what is in effect a giant raid and punitive expedition.

And a wall would be a useful shield on the Israel-Lebanon border while the sword of the army and air force drive north to gut Hezbollah.

And a useful tool in the aftermath as the raiders pull back into Israel itself following the raid/punative mission.

Remember, Israel simply cannot sit on the defensive on the border while Hezbollah fires well over 100,000 rockets and missiles into Israel. Israeli defenses can't shoot down that many incoming rounds (even the minority that will strike something other than open terrain) and Israeli aircraft and artillery can't knock all of them out fast enough (if they can achieve that result at all).

Neither Russia nor Turkey will be upset if Iran's cat's paw in Lebanon and Syria is seriously damaged, given their opposition to Iran's dominance of Syria.

I'm not in charge, of course. And who knows if Israel wants to do this? But I'd do it. It makes sense.