Tuesday, March 03, 2015

The Coming Civil War in California?

Natural disasters are natural. Oppressive governments that make matters worse are man-caused.

The idea that global warming is one of the causes of the Syrian Civil War is nonsense. Stresses from natural disasters is normal--slaughtering people in reaction is not.

While it is not nonsense to say that natural disasters can sow discontent in people, even if Syria's climate has warmed to cause mass migration to cities, since the planet's temperature has been flat for 18 or so years now, the cause of that changing climate in Syria is not global warming. Weather changes. Climates change.

Second, it is nonsense to even think of weighting the change in climate more than the sectarian divisions caused by a minority government sponsoring sectarian terrorism abroad while bloodily repressing their people and keeping most resources for the regime's favored sects.

To their credit, the study authors themselves don't say global warming caused the civil war. But that is what will be repeated and that's the only reason this study got reported.

And the case is undermined by the explanation that Syria's average temperature has gone up 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900.

That revolution was a long time coming, apparently.

But you'd better hope that drought doesn't cause civil war. Because another article in the same journal says California's drought, too, is the fault of global warming (but what about the "pause?"):

In a separate study, also published in the same journal, Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, said the long-time upward trend in California's temperatures have caused the current drought there to be worse, regardless of the initial cause of lack of rain. Diffenbaugh didn't see much of a change in rainfall, but a big one in terms of warming.

I'll note that other climate scientists say the drought is purely local conditions. Which, given the "pause", makes sense.

But if that study is correct, I assume that Sacramento will begin barrel-bombing the San Fernando valley while San Francisco gears up their chlorine gas bomb arsenal.

Funny enough, the article ends up bolstering one of the main objections of we "deniers" to crippling economic growth to halt our contribution to (the currently "paused") global warming:

While they are different places, there is a connection between the two droughts and climate change, Kelley said. It shows that a wealthy United States can bounce back from a big drought and a country like Syria sometimes can't, he said.

Apparently, it is possible to cope with changing climate if you aren't a poor dictatorship that stokes sectarian differences to remain in power. Don't give Assad a "get out of jail free card" by blaming global warming.

And note, too, that while the global warmers want greater government control to fight (the currently "paused") global warming, the study also noted that Syrian government policy contributed to the problem:

Using satellite images, Kelley's team confirms that over-pumping of ground water in north-eastern Syria because of government subsidies for wheat production depleted a source of irrigation that farmers could otherwise have used when rains failed. Meanwhile, the Syrian government slashed food and fuel subsidies. "This resulted in agricultural collapse and mass migration," says Kelley.

So maybe California isn't out of the woods yet, depending on what policies they order.

Alagore Akbar!