A lot of Taiwanese are upset with their government's plans to implement a new trade pact with China that opens up Taiwan to Chinese investment:
Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Taipei on Sunday in a bid to pressure embattled President Ma Ying-jeou to retract the service trade pact and introduce a law to monitor all agreements with China.
Is this Sunflower Movement an indication that Taiwanese will not go along with China's insistence that progress be made on integrating Taiwan into China politically?
The Communist Party's subjugation of its own citizens and overreach in Hong Kong is feeding the movement. Young Taiwanese have watched as China has backtracked on pledges to allow Hong Kongers to elect their own leaders. Beijing's attempts to impose vaguely written anti-sedition laws and patriotic education, and to clamp down on the city's freewheeling press, are equally unnerving. China should be learning from Hong Kong's civil liberties and first-world financial system, not the other way around.
Taiwanese have to wonder what Beijing might try if Ma got his way and effectively merged the two economies. Trade pacts with China can involve political control as much as economics: Just as oil gives Russia undue influence over Ukraine, China's trade brawn gives it vast leverage from Indonesia to Nigeria. If it's displeased by events in Taipei, Xi could just cut off the flow of business to Taiwan.
It could be. If so, Taiwan is in a difficult position because China insists that the status quo cannot remain, so refusing to move closer to China is dangerous as Chinese power increases.
Not that going down China's approved path isn't deadly for Taiwan's freedom. But Taiwan can force China to decide on a different path.
Of course, having China invest in service industries would allow China to build up a shadow logistics network inside Taiwan, for use by Chinese special forces infiltrating Taiwan before an invasion, posing as tourists.
I touched on this issue in my still relevant Chinese invasion scenario here:
The actual invasion will have started before the shooting starts. Special forces and intelligence officers will infiltrate Taiwan, placing navigation aids to guide parachutists and missiles, and preparing for direct attacks on Taiwanese strategic assets. They might even stock warehouses with consumable supplies and vehicles to be used by the invaders.
Just what types of companies are included in this pact? And how easily can the list be expanded to things like construction companies? Such Chinese controlled assets could rip up roads and bridges needed by Taiwan's army to respond to an invasion, no?
I've long worried about this ability to begin an invasion. China will surely study Crimea for how Russia led off an invasion with Spetsnaz special forces.
If China can own and operate trucking companies, warehouse outfits, or telecommunications companies, or all sorts of businesses on Taiwan that could be used to equip invading troops with 4-wheel drive vehicles, communications gear, "camping" gear, food and water, and other non-weapons equipment, an invasion becomes much easier to carry out.
I know, China lacks traditional means of amphibious warfare. But as I explain in that invasion scenario post, that's not an insurmountable obstacle. Our approach is fairly unique, actually.
Say, here's China adding to their stealth amphibious capability.
The Taiwanese need to reform their military so that military service is a valued choice of young adults. It's great that young people are marching against a pact that they worry will undermine their democracy. But young people need to be willing to point the pointy end of the stick if the Chinese decide to just take Taiwan.
Increasing defense spending to pay volunteers and buy needed weapons is way overdue. And if Japan is now going to export weapons, I say the Taiwanese look into these fine submarine models as their first purchase.
I'm encouraged, actually. The desire to protect what they hold dear is the first step to defending it, no?
