Monday, December 09, 2013

Cuba is So Screwed

Socialist (and a particularly addled form of Hugo Chavez-designed socialism--not the merely unsustainable Swedish variety) Venezuela is going down despite oil wealth and I don't know if Cuba can survive that crash.

When the Soviet Union went down, Cuba lost a source of fraternal socialist assistance that kept their ramshackle economy going. Hugo Chavez stepped up to fill the gap. Venezuela is sinking fast:

Venezuela is emulating Cuba where half a century of communism has impoverished most Cubans and made it a criminal offense to even discuss change. Venezuela can’t stop the economic meltdown and growing shortages unless the government takes control of the entire economy and institutionalizes poverty and shortages as countries like Cuba and North Korea have done. The government is expanding its control, but has not got the manpower or the will to go all the way. The problem in Venezuela is that a lot more people still have access to weapons and government efforts to arm pro-government militias has backfired as many of the militiamen are no longer loyal to the government.

Cuba won't survive this type of wreckage (from a two-year-old article pre-Maduro):

Mr Chávez subsidises Cuba to the tune of around $3.5 billion a year, by sending it an estimated 115,000 barrels of oil a day (around two-thirds of its consumption). Cuba pays in kind, in the form of 40,000 doctors, intelligence and security experts and other workers stationed in Venezuela. In addition, Mr Chávez is putting up money for infrastructure projects on the island, such as the expansion of an oil refinery at Cienfuegos. Venezuela is also Cuba's top trading partner.

Venezuelan aid has been the biggest single factor in helping the communist island emerge from the catastrophic slump that followed the demise of its previous sponsor, the Soviet Union, in 1991. Adult Cubans remember the early 1990s as a traumatic time of food and fuel shortages. Might such penury return?

Is China so eager to screw with us that they'd pick up the tab for that mess of an island off our shore?

We'll see. In the meantime, assuming Maduro is incapable of reversing the collapse (as he accelerates it with his policies), the Dutch should check their ammo.