The history seems confusing. Strategypage has both reported that North Korea has cancelled the armistice before and that the latest declaration is new:
Once more North Korea is threatening to attack South Korea. This has been going on since North Korea signed a ceasefire agreement in 1953 to end the Korean War. The war itself has never officially been ended and now, for the first time North Korea has declared the ceasefire over.
So I have to ask, is North Korea just feeling the need to turn the Psycho Dial up to 11 to inspire the same amount of fear (and aid) that past lesser sabre rattling achieved?
Or are they prepared (perhaps from desperation rather than confidence) to do more and are dotting "i"s and crossing "t"s to justify an attack on South Korea?
And if the North Koreans are preparing for another performance of Dead South Koreans Theater, what scale do the North Koreans feel they need to kill on to work?
And when the South Koreans strike back hard, do the North Koreans plan to match South Korea escalation for escalation until South Korean troops push north?
I hope PACOM is looking at how fast they can react to a North Korean attack--at whatever scale--rather than focusing on coping with rising sea levels. Face it, we have no idea what the North Koreans think is rational.
UPDATE:IISS considers it likely that North Korea will strike South Korea this year--but after our joint exercises with the South Koreans are over. IISS judges this dangerous since South Korea will retaliate. Given that North Korea wants to shove South Korea's face in the dirt, unless North Korea responds to the retaliation, there is little point to starting this.
And if South Korea wants to establish deterrence against northern attacks, South Korea can't let this end with North Korean advantage. South Korea doesn't necessarily have to fire last, but there will need to be more rubble on the north side of the DMZ.
