A year has passed since North Korea conducted its unexpected shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. Yet, while tensions between the two Koreas seem less intense now, the threat posed by North Korea’s military continues to be as complex and diversified as ever. Indeed, even as the North Korea looks like it is edging toward collapse, there are signs of dangerous military changes, including the further politicization of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) and the diversification of its military capabilities. ...
[While] the KPA’s diversifying military capabilities are unlikely to help North Korea achieve its goal of becoming a “strong and prosperous nation,” they are certainly making it a potentially more deadly one.
North Korea's armed forces are in free fall. The only way that North Korea's military could defeat South Korea is if a massive barrage of chemical and high explosive warheads causes the South Korean army to collapse, allowing the KPA to road march all the way to Pusan without having to fight. Heck, just preventing their troops from stopping and looting at the first mall they drove by would be the biggest challenge to the advance if the South Korean army collapsed.
In reality, the North Korean security forces may not be able to defend the regime let alone the state:
The North Korean government is increasing fearful of an invasion from the south. This is something that is not even mentioned publicly. But the northern leadership is aware of how their armed forces have deteriorated in the last two decades. The decline has accelerated in the last few years as the troops have lost their faith in North Korea. Part of this was hunger, for in the past the troops always had food. But most troops are conscripts, and they are coming from families who have known only increasing deprivation. The troops also noted that their senior officers live very well. The northern leadership is also aware that the South Korean armed forces have loyal, well-armed and trained troops. North Korean military experts point out that the southerners are strong enough, especially if their American allies help out, to invade the north. Of course, the south has no interest in doing this. The only talk of moving into North Korea is to restore order after a government collapse up there, or a civil war. But the northern leadership doesn't care what the reason the southerners use to invade, just that they are planning to move north, and that they could get away with it.
I also think the South Koreans would move north if they needed to carve out a no-launch zone north of the DMZ to push North Korean artillery out of range of Seoul. South Koreans aren't eager to pay for rescuing North Korea.
But the point is, North Korea could start a war but the odds against them winning it--or even surviving it--are pretty darned high. How anyone can look at North Korea's military and see a growing threat is beyond me. You'd have to be a fool, a North Korean fan boy, or on Pyongyang's payroll to conclude that North Korea's conventional military threat is diversifying and dangerous. I'm probably missing an explanation, but I honestly don't know what else it could be given how shockingly wrong the premise is.
Good grief, the "stealth" plane that the author mentions is an ancient wood and canvas biplane! No doubt the North Koreans will try to infiltrate their special forces into South Korea--including by Y-5 flights--but don't go thinking that the 200,000 "special operations forces" noted means they are all like our special forces. Few will be lucky to be even as good as our Rangers. I imagine the vast majority are simply light infantry trained in irregular warfare.
As for the KN-01 missiles that the author says are now mounted on the Y-5, those are more recent vintages of ancient Russian Styx anti-ship cruise missiles. The North Koreans could get lucky with this in a militarized incident, but they aren't winning a war with them.
Actually, one thing that comforts me from the Strategypage link is that the North Korean leadership is said to understand that their military is lousy. That is a relief since I feared they had no clue that their military is ancient, hungry, and ill-trained.
You can prop up the rotting corpse of North Korea's military and pretend it is having a party, but the stink should be too obvious for anyone to ignore.
