Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Whose Guns of August?

Yesterday I noted that Turkey essentially gave Syria an ultimatum to stop killing their own civilians, or else.

Syria continues to kill civilians:

Heavy machine-gun fire rang out across the besieged Syrian city of Latakia Tuesday as the death toll from a four-day military assault rose to 35. ...

Assad has dramatically escalated the crackdown on a 5-month-old uprising since the start of the holy month of Ramadan at the beginning of August. Despite broad international condemnation, the regime has unleashed tanks, ground troops and snipers in an attempt to retake control in rebellious areas.

So, Syria has not stopped killing civilians.

What might Turkey do in the "or else" category?

A Turkish broadcaster said on Tuesday Turkey would set up a buffer zone on its border with Syria, but a Turkish government official said he had no such information.

CNN Turk broadcast the news in a rolling headline but gave no source.

Speculation in Turkey or a quiet warning leaked to the news? I thought a buffer zone made sense rather than an all-out drive on Damascus.

And to make things really fun, Iran warns against Western military intervention in their little client regime:

Iran sees no justification for any Western intervention in the “internal affair” of its regional Arab ally Syria, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Tuesday.

So does Turkey count as "Western" in their eyes?

And in the meantime, Syrians continue to die in accelerating numbers at the hands of the government and their Iranian allies.

UPDATE: And on Wednesday, the Turks demonstrate that their final word was not the final word:

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made a fresh call on Wednesday for Syria to halt military operations in a crackdown on widespread demonstrations calling for the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad.

The Turks deny they are thinking of a buffer zone:

"We're talking about a border that is 900 km long. We cannot talk about such a development right now," he said.

Turkish officials denied on Tuesday the news report that Ankara was planning a buffer zone to prevent an influx of refugees.

Unless the Turks plan to adopt smart diplomacy and lead from behind on this, what is the point of saying--again--that the violence has to stop?

As for the denial based on the impracticality of creating a buffer zone all along the 900 kilometer border? Well, that's why I said such a buffer would consist of bubble enclaves spread along the border rather than a continuous belt. The border really is too long for the latter. But denying what the realities of geography impose on you isn't the same as denying the intent to do it in a way that makes sense.

And I still think the government of Turkey would love to get their army busy with a foreign foe rather than sulking about what the government is doing to the army.

Gosh, I wonder if Turkey will get a UN resolution to authorize their action?