Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Putting Moscow on the Couch

As a history and political science major, I'm obviously qualified to psychoanalyze Russia's bizarre thinking.

The issue at hand is that Russians aren't worried about China's rising power:

Developments in Central Asia and Pakistan are a major concern for Russia, but the growing military might of China isn’t really, at least according to Russian political and military officials I spoke with at a key conference in Moscow.

Think about that. Russian power in their Far East is minimal and China's military power is rising. China's massive population dwarfs Russia's dwindling population in their Far East. And the Russian Far East--territory Russia grabbed from China--has natural resources that China could use.

Yet The Russians aren't concerned? How is that possible?

Also consider that Russia routinely accuses America and NATO of plotting against Russia. Yet NATO struggles to have a division's worth of troops in combat in Afghanistan and to wage a small aerial campaign against Libya. Yet NATO somehow is a threat to strangle or invade Russia?

So NATO, which is no threat to a weak Russia, is denounced by paranoid Russians. Why? Because NATO isn't a threat and so accusing NATO of being a threat has no consequences. What is NATO going to do if we get mad at Russia for pretending we are a threat? Invade them? Not bloody likely.

But China, whose conventional military power is growing and faces off against Russian conventional forces incapable of waging war for long, is not even brought up as a threat by most Russians in authority. Why? Because Russia can't do anything about it. Why bring it up when the Chinese will just get mad and threaten retaliation? Shoot, China got mad at Google for fingering a recent hack of GMail on Chinese hackers!

So there you go. Russia threatens those that don't threaten it; and meekly accepts those who are a threat to it. What would a real psychiatrist say about that?