The Syrian army said Thursday it has begun withdrawing from a city at the heart of the country's uprising, but the regime expanded its crackdown elsewhere by deploying soldiers and arresting hundreds ahead of a fresh wave of anti-government protests.
Protesters say Daraa may be quiet but hardly pacified.
Stratfor has a useful background piece on Alawite domination of Syria. Short take away: until one of the four foundations of Assad's power fracture (Assad family unity, Alawite unity, Alawite control of intelligence and military forces, and Alawite control of the Baath Party), the regime has the means to fight the unrest and ultimately defeat the protesters.
I still wonder if the military piece isn't the most critical. I don't know how many of the military units are loyal enough to kill civilians. If there aren't enough to go around, can the protesters eventually break the military pillar by continuing protests widespread enough to keep the loyal units on the move massing to suppress one location and then moving off to another? Would that shake the morale of even loyal units or cause less reliable units to openly revolt?
The advantage still lies with Assad, it seems, but that could change if the regime doesn't quiet this unrest.
