But what if Taiwan isn't willing to defend itself?
Consider the population as a whole:
China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Beijing has vowed to bring the island under mainland rule, by force if necessary, but ties have improved vastly since China-friendly Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in May.
China has sought to win hearts in Taiwan, a strategy for eventual unification, by helping Ma honour a campaign pledge to revitalise his economy by letting in a daily maximum of 3,000 visitors from China.
After decades of living under the looming colossus on the mainland, is the false thaw that is a mere tactic for China making it too difficult for the Taiwanese to rapidly shift mental gears to a war footing?
And what of Taiwan's rulers?
President Ma Ying-jeou's efforts to build a diverse communal coalition have taken a hit after an official was alleged to have called Taiwan's majority population "primitive" and suggested China should use force to seize the island.
The affair is a huge embarrassment to Ma, who has worked hard to unite Taiwan's fractious communal groups to support his ambitious China engagement program, despite continuing Chinese threats to take over democratic Taiwan by force.
This is merely an "embarrassment?" Say whatever you want about our current leaders, but "clinging to God and guns" pales in comparison to this sentiment.
If the Taiwanese people are too charmed to feel the need to resist an invasion and the leaders of Taiwan don't want to resist, how large and sophisticated would a Chinese invasion have to be?
I know it seems like I'm unreasonably convinced China will attack Taiwan when they haven't so far and seem to be on their best behavior. But I cannot imagine that China can become a true global power with a hostile Taiwan allied to America acting as a figurative stopper in the bottle for Chinese naval power projection. And every year the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait tilts toward China. Am I really unreasonable?
UPDATE: Thanks to The View from Taiwan for the link. We probably disagree on most things outside of bolstering Taiwan to resist China, but for on-the-scene commentary on Taiwan he is indispensable.
Just when I was beginning to lose hope for sanity, an emergency shipment of reality arrived. We'll see if the Taiwanese are in the mood for such reality.
