Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Putinkin Village

Putin is acting like the Soviet Union is back in town to scare Europeans and small children into panic.

But other than their oil wealth, which could begin declining soon as the Russians continue the Soviet tradition of mucking up the economy, the Russians are less than they wish to appear.

Having abandoned democracy, they face a government succession crisis; having failed to use their lottery winnings of oil sales to build a real economy, they are vulnerable to price or production declines; and their sabre rattling uses old weapons refurbished from Soviet glory days and a few new weapons manned by the painfully few troops with any idea of how to fight.

Right now, the Russians can nuke us or they can aid our enemies. They've got nothing in between. But what the Russians have done is remind people around the world that the only thing worse than Russia without power throwing their weight around is Russia with power:

Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova and even Belarus have been threatened with cut-offs of energy supplies, much higher energy bills, and a take-it-or-leave-it attitude that has only encouraged centrifugal tendencies on the part of Russia's neighbors - many of them already seeking closer ties to NATO and the European Union as a hedge against Russian resurgence.

Beyond Russia's immediate neighborhood, its position has declined as well. Russian missile-rattling in response to U.S. plans to deploy ballistic missile defense components in Europe has deterred few on either side of the ocean and only boosted trans-Atlantic solidarity.

It has had the same effect on Europe, where missile threats, coupled with pipeline diplomacy, have helped heal divisions between "old" and "new" Europe and prompted stronger EU scrutiny of Russian actions.

The fact that the normally platitudinous EU-Russia summit in May 2007 ended in open disagreement between Putin and the leaders of the European Union should speak for itself.

Things are looking fine now, but Putin's successor - whether it's him or someone else - is likely to inherit a host of domestic and foreign policy problems that will require tough choices both at home and abroad.


Seriously, Putin should be embarrassed. Iran makes the Europeans wet their pants before Iran has nuke one and reach for a conference. Putin's nuclear threats actually stiffen European resolve!

Putin should just buy a sports car and some flashy jewelry, and spare Russia and the rest of the world the effects of his very public midlife crisis.

Putin is alienating the West even as he must face the prospects of a China that no longer needs Russian arms sales and perhaps a little more eager to reclaim their lost Far Eastern provinces from Russia.