Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Time on Target

the Telegraph (via Austin Bay) reports we are planning for a massive air assault on Iran's nuclear infrastructure:

Strategists at the Pentagon are drawing up plans for devastating bombing raids backed by submarine-launched ballistic missile attacks against Iran's nuclear sites as a "last resort" to block Teheran's efforts to develop an atomic bomb.

Central Command and Strategic Command planners are identifying targets, assessing weapon-loads and working on logistics for an operation, the Sunday Telegraph has learnt.

They are reporting to the office of Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, as America updates plans for action if the diplomatic offensive fails to thwart the Islamic republic's nuclear bomb ambitions. Teheran claims that it is developing only a civilian energy programme.

"This is more than just the standard military contingency assessment," said a senior Pentagon adviser. "This has taken on much greater urgency in recent months."

A massive blitz does not mean that this would be the only assault and it would be over in hours. Even in a campaign lasting weeks, you'd want to opening salvo to take advantage of the element of surprise and pave the way for following sorties.

Nor does this imply that we won't try for a lesser siege-like strategy designed to provoke the Iranians into irrational actions that then give us the pretext to unleash an aerial blitz.

Whatever we do, the end state should be a revolt that overthrows the mullahs. Remember the main lesson of the Iran-Iraq War: don't assume you can teach true believers "a lesson" and expect them to mend their ways. When we take action, we must destroy the mullah regime.