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Sunday, February 18, 2024

Weekend Data Dump

Hamas never gets international warnings: “Israel is facing growing international warnings over its planned offensive in Rafah - the city in southern Gaza crammed with Palestinian refugees." I feel sorry for Gaza civilians. If Hamas cared, they could surrender.

Thank you. Your services are no longer needed. Tip to Instapundit. 

I'm glad the team that denied the Lions a Super Bowl appearance lost. And nothing about Kansas City offends me. But I was saddened that a former Michigan kicker broke a 30-year Super Bowl field goal distance record--and held it for 30 minutes. Egad. But it was a tense game to watch.

Shame: "roughly 60 percent of those flown to American either had [no ID] or 'had identification that did not per se, connect them to the United States'; ... while far too many of those with firm ties to America were left in a country where the Taliban was actively hunting them down." Biden hid defeat with volume.

Don't count America out. We have problems. The rest of the world has worse problems. And America has a history of fixing what is wrong. If you think China will replace America, think again. China might not even remain more populous than America. As I've noted. The "American century" will repeat. Again:


From the "Well, Duh" files: "Attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have interrupted the Defense Department’s larger counter-ISIS mission in the region, according to an Inspector General report released Friday."

Sadly, just training for war is dangerous: "The Marine Corps has identified the five Marines who died in the crash of a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter Tuesday in California."

I'll never claim China isn't trying to increase influence in the Middle East: "American defense firms may have come in droves to show off their wares, ...  but Chinese firms claimed the most floor space outside host nation Saudi Arabia. Beijing also put on an aerial demonstration for the first time."

British commandos get a new boat to reach the shore for raiding missions. Is this an "old" mission that new strategic assumptions call into question?

Building the "incident" for war? "The government of Venezuela accused neighboring Guayana Sunday of granting illegal oil exploration concessions in territory the two nations are disputing."

The media twists Trump’s claim about not defending a NATO defense laggard. It’s more of this pressure to battle this weakness. Further, fighting is not a NATO requirement. And Trump opposed Russia when president. I understand not liking Trump or his hyperbole. But predictable hysteria makes me mistrust you.

Russia’s surface fleet experiences significant shrinkage: “The new fleet will be a return to the traditional Russian navy job of defending coastal waters including the Baltic Sea and Black Sea. Even accomplishing that mission is in doubt if Russia cannot get its shipyards up to speed.” Wanting much more is folly.

Ukraine’s USVs work: “NATO naval officials are fascinated by this development and are learning as much about these USVs as they can because, for coastal warfare or operations in restricted waters, that can be a decisive and inexpensive weapon." Remember their limits.

The Mann v. Steyn verdict is a free-speech travesty. But fine, Mann’s climate data manipulation is way different than molesting young people. I assume this will be overturned on appeal. If not, it will be entrenched travesty.

I agree that America should resume robust military aid to Ukraine. But saying Republicans are blocking aid ignores that Democrats refuse to control our southern border—a basic federal responsibility—to get aid flowing.

Is the U. S. “distracted” from East Asia? Ah, another case of the Goldilocks Syndrome. Don't pretend we have few interests in the Middle East ("The area exports jihadis and oil. Our prosperity relies on the supply of the latter and the containment of the former.")--including Shia nuclear mullahs--or Europe.

Oh? “The United States became the world’s policeman not because of its security needs but because it could." Stability rebuilt our World War II-ravaged allies--and created new strong allies. Have no doubt we have security needs abroad. Nor do I see 'imperial overstretch' abroad.

All I know for sure is that you better not kneel in protest while it is played. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine needs men for the machine: "A potential expansion of the nation’s military draft to replenish the exhausted, battered army has become an emotional, politically charged issue." Ukraine wasted time--perhaps unavoidably--that could have ended the war faster. So here we are:
 

The BUFF lives on: "Sometime in the 2030s, the service plans to have a fleet of two bombers — at least 100 B-21s and the current fleet of 76 B-52s, modernized top to bottom with a slate of upgrades."

Were Israel's threats aiming for this? "The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue."

The 82nd Airborne Division is getting a new helmet Next Generation Integrated Head Protection System that protect against bullets. I started out wearing the old "steel pot." Getting older, here at TDR

Iraq said talks to redefine and eventually remove American troops from Iraq (when Iraq doesn't need them) will continue as long as nothing "disturbs the peace" of the talks. Is this a warning to Iran to cut out their attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria?

The rise of T-55s and T-54s: "Russia is running out of tanks." And its artillery tubes are wearing out.

Ukraine found the M-109 tracked artillery it received useful. But FPVs have proven cheaper and more useful for hunting enemy forces.

Just a reminder that Christian Arabs in America and their descendants are rapidly becoming the only survivors of Christian Arab communities in the Middle East. I mean, if you want to talk about genocide.

I wish Trump wasn't hyperbolic, giving "Europe" an excuse to shudder in fear. Yes, Trump induces faux EU shudders. Trump is a gift for EU apparatchiki who never let a crisis go to waste to strip the prefix from the proto-imperial EU. But not-Trump also induces shudders. The EU--not Trump--is a threat.

No, we do not need "national service". The military is short of recruits but any national service would have tons of exemptions to get that relatively small amount of young people into the military. "National service" would end up being mass forced labor and indoctrination for the progressive cause.

Of course Putin lied about Ukrainian identity fiercely separate from Russia's. Or does our shared historical, cultural, and language mean America was--and remains--wrong about independence from Britain? Should we welcome a Britain intent on "protecting" English-speaking people in America?

It's a low bar to say America is doing better economically than Europe. But no less true, even now with an administration seemingly intent on destroying free market capitalism here. Although sure, some of the edge is a sugar high of "stimulus" that even Europeans can't afford.

That's going to look bad on the Houthi annual performance review: "Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeted a commercial cargo ship Monday in the Red Sea whose final destination was an Iranian port, the U.S. military said."

LOL: "The former president of Mongolia mocked Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend and his focus on history to try to justify his invasion of Ukraine." Tsakhia Elbegdorj has a point. The Mongols did have a huge empire that ran through China and Russia.

Yes, America's allies are ramping up defense spending. But any equivalence with China's allies Russia and North Korea is rather silly. North Korea is tiny and hates China nearly as much as it hates America. And Russia is still trying to dig out of the defense hole they dug by invading Ukraine. 

I just see a lying, paranoid fiend with a certain animal cunning who has more territorial ambitions. But perhaps that's just me.

Western media always worries far more about the backlash than the lash: "We reported here at Jihad Watch on the gang-rape in Italy on February 5. The establishment media took no notice of it aside from CNN using it below as an opportunity to warn against the 'far right' using it as a weapon." Via Instapundit.

Oh? "'It's true to say that President Putin is confident that he can outlast the West and so it's incumbent on us to show the resolve to prove him wrong,' said a senior official from a Western country, asking not to be named." I think it's true that Putin says he can outlast the West. Russians say a lot of things that aren't true.

The Abraham Accords are alive. Not even Arab governments want to re-crown the Palestinians as Queen of the Victim Prom.

Why defend a state made by colonialists? "The United States should carefully examine the prospect of recognizing Somaliland." Ethiopia opened the topic. Let's examine it. Somaliland looks more like a functioning state than a lot of countries with a UN seat.

American liquified natural gas sustained Europe post-Russian imports.* But Biden scaled back future projects. So "as European buyers seek a full divorce from Russian gas, the pause on new LNG project approvals will raise some longer-term concerns." Smart Diplomacy®? *Well, most of it.

HAHAHAHAHA! "Customers now dump thicker and heavier 'reusable' carriers instead, triggering more pollution than ever - for only an extra ten cents per  [plastic] bag at the check out." But the backers cared so much! Tip to Instapundit.

Obama's intelligence agencies illegally colluded with foreign intelligence to set up Trump for investigation even before summer 2016. Not banana republicy at all. If true, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Hur said Biden can't be prosecuted because of his mental state. But what about all the boxes of classified documents he had held for so many years? Why didn't the report tell us the nature of those documents?

Follow the scien--oh, ef it, just do what you want: "The Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could soon employ 'Indigenous Knowledge' in their research, a document obtained by the Washington Free Beacon shows." Via Instapundit.

Government-delivered migrant domestic help: "Holy shit. They found a way to bring back slavery and make it woke." Tip to Instapundit. Did I call it, or what?


FFS, of course Hunter Biden sold access to his cooperative father who also profited. Via Instapundit.

Reachback for Ukraine: "A solution was soon found by updating a three decade old technique that used internet-connected troops in the combat zone with a large number of tech experts and other support personnel stationed anywhere in the world outside the combat zone." I suggested reachback for the squad.

Shell shortage: "Delays in NATO delivering adequate supplies of 155mm artillery ammunition have hampered Ukrainian abilities to defend against Russian attacks or implement plans to successfully attack Russian forces."

Old TDR reminders of the difference between Trump and Obama on backing Ukraine against the Russians. But Trump is a threat to Ukraine according to our Democrat-media complex?

The European Union wants to contest China for Central Asia. I don't believe the EU cares about Central Asia as much as it cares about gaining the power to contest China for Central Asia. 

Our little carriers in action. They are useful. But they aren't little carriers, really.

Ef these autocrats: "As Putin and Trump threaten from east and west, Europe must stand up for itself[.]" They blame Trump or not-Trump. They could invest in defense through NATO, but no. They'd rather gut it to command the ruins of European military power left in the wake of that outcome. You know the drill.

The Air National Guard would like more F-15EX planes. You don't always need stealth--especially for NORAD air defense missions.

Ukraine is certainly imposing a cost on the Russians for using the Black Sea: "Ukraine’s military said Wednesday it used naval drones to sink a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea, a report that has not been confirmed by Russian authorities."

From "Aim High" to "Aim From High":  "U.S. Space Force operators will be responsible for flying a new fleet of satellites that will monitor ground targets in near-real time virtually anywhere in the world[.]" They will replace JSTARS aircraft that debuted in Desert Storm. 

Via Instapundit, water detected on two asteroids, for first time

I'd just put new plaques on them detailing the horrors and casualties of Soviet rule: "Estonia’s prime minister has been put on a wanted list in Russia because of her efforts to remove Soviet-era World War II monuments in the Baltic nation[.]"

NATO says that as a whole, NATO's European states will meet the 2014 goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. But only 18 of 31 NATO states individually will meet the goal. That's why Trump is hyperbolic about the issue.

Good for the victims, good for our image, and good practice for moving explody things: "Japan-based Marines are delivering food to a Philippine island where hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from flooding and landslides."

The Navy is confident it can integrate unmanned ships into the fleet over the next decade or so".

Russia taught us we need to be ready for a long war. Now Iran's Houthi proxies are giving us experience shooting down anti-ship ballistic missiles. China has few allies. China must be so happy with what Russia and Iran bring to the table--lessons for the West useful for resisting China.

They're right: "Donald Trump’s allies are downplaying and spinning his comments inviting Russia to invade NATO nations, saying that he should once more be taken seriously but not literally." Real spin is claiming he literally invited Russian to invade. Trump didn't kill NATO and increased support for Ukraine.

Ancient tanks and ill-prepared troops are Putin's answer to heavy losses.

Hmmm: "Non-kinetic effects — such as cyber, electromagnetic spectrum or space capabilities — are often less understood than their kinetic counterparts." I'm not against this ... but as we look at bright shiny new things I think we risk undervaluing kinetics.

But remember, being a special force doesn't mean being really good infantry: "The leader of the Navy SEALs -- the elite special operators who most famously led the raid that killed Osama bin Laden -- says the units are pivoting away from being a counterterrorism force to supporting other elements of the Navy."

It couldn't be that they see us as not so much the strong horse as heading for the glue factory, right?  "Some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly restricting the U.S. from using military facilities on their soil to launch retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian proxies[.]" Fix that.

We're still in the Earth-Moon system, so this might be premature: "The Space Force is considering requiring prospective guardians to enlist for an initial term of eight years on active duty[.]"

I wouldn't need to defend Trump if Democrats didn't turn it to 11 attacking him. As they have since 2016! We could actually agree on much about him. But then they go ruin the ride by conjuring up imaginary crimes and plots. TDS isn't a good look on you guys. Ah, the innocence of 2015! Via Instapundit.

We have let our Tomahawk arsenal dwindle: "We may not be prepared to fight a long war, but a long war may be prepared to fight us." Tip to Instapundit.

Remember, the 2% NATO goal set in 2014 gave NATO members until 2024 to meet the defense floor:


It takes two for peaceful means: "The Philippines is committed to asserting its claims in the South China Sea even as it aims to manage disputes through peaceful means, its top diplomat said."

We shouldn't need to justify each attack given the ongoing Houthi threat: "American forces have carried out a self-defense strike this week targeting a "mobile anti-ship cruise missile" in Yemen that 'was prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.'"

WTAF: "Iran’s Navy commander announced in a televised broadcast last fall that the regime owns Antarctica and will build a military operation in the South Pole." Just how much money did we release to Iran?

The Bennu asteroid came from an ancient ocean world. Huh.

Russian manpower shortages in the military and economy.

To control the Brown Skies: "Ukraine has created a new branch of their military, the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) Force." Does it make sense? Is it a separate service or a branch of the ground forces? If the former, expect fighter drones (Army) and a loss of interest in providing ground support. Much background.

Ecuador bought the weapons from Ukraine: "Russia recently banned the importation of Ecuadorian bananas ... in response to Ecuador sending the United States some elderly but still functional ... Russian weapons and military equipment in return for $200 million worth of new American replacements." 

Pakistan "at a critical juncture after a contested election". It's a heavily populated, Islamist-infested country that is an army with a UN seat. And it has nukes. So ... it would be nice if it didn't follow Somalia's path. 

Germany reacts to Trump's NATO spending comments: "The speech caused many appalled German politicians to put even more pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to boost defense spending, sooner rather than later[.]" Asking nicely didn't work. And the EU is exploiting them to get their empire, as I noted.

Hopefully enemies fear that those woke interns who hold the puppet strings are competent and resolute: "Would you be deterred by an antagonist you believe to be incompetent, irresolute, or both?"

Problem: "Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has fired two ballistic missiles from launchers disguised as standard shipping containers that were hosted aboard one of its sea base-like vessels." I've long raised the issue and discussed how we can use it--advice Iran took for the ship that fired the missile.

Revising the XM-30 IFV design by letting troops practice using mock ups. I had thoughts on the next IFV in Infantry magazine.

The United States is ignoring Pacific island nations we advanced through at great cost in World War II. Yeah, I've warned about that. Tip to Instapundit.

For tracking--not shooting them down: "The U.S. military partnered with SpaceX to launch a half dozen missile-defense satellites into orbit Wednesday in an effort to protect the United States against hypersonic missile attacks." Good.

Racism. Such accusations rest on the speaker knowing the charge is false. Tip to Instapundit.

I haven't started a new post to add Last Hamas War updates since this one that I still update. But nothing has really changed in the nature of the war to justify a new post. I could apply the same rule to the Winter War of 2022. But major conventional war in Europe is a different animal altogether, no?

To be fair, Azerbaijan got its "peace" to reload: "Azerbaijan is planning a 'full-scale war' against Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Thursday, two days after a skirmish on their border left four Armenian troops dead." Tip to Instapundit.

And yet it had more basis in reality than any Trump prosecution: "Seychelles' main opposition leader Patrick Herminie is no longer facing witchcraft charges after prosecutors dropped the case against him."

Huh: "South African troops in the Democratic Republic of Congo have suffered their first fatalities since their recent deployment to quell a rebellion." That would be a troop sponge if pushed beyond showing "solidarity."

Let's see if China can actually mediate a peace somewhere before throwing panties at Xi for challenging America diplomatic leverage

True enough: "The series of recent corruption scandals that have rocked the senior ranks of the Chinese military should make Beijing think twice about whether its forces are ready to fight, a senior U.S. defense official has said." If the problems exceed the scope of their objective. And if Xi knows their readiness.

International progressivism? Sounds familiar.

Huh: "A court in Hong Kong has ordered the liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande Group, once the world’s largest real estate company. The failure could pose obstacles to China’s economic recovery." And repercussions could shake the world.

Don't worry that changes in Ukraine's defense leadership is a crisis. It's normal. Indeed, I know I said on at least one occasion that I didn't gloat over Russian military leadership changes earlier in the war because I worried they would actually find a competent general. I preferred keeping those who failed in charge.

If our leadership can't trust our people with firearms under America's current Constitution, the problem is the leadership and not the armed citizens--or the Constitution.

So: "The U.S. recently conducted a cyberattack against an Iranian military ship that had been collecting intelligence on cargo vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to three U.S. officials." There is no indication of success. You know what would have worked? Sinking it! FFS.

Point: "President Biden is privately defiant that he made the right calls on Afghanistan in 2021 despite the U.S. military's chaotic exit[.]" Counter-point: "CSI: Kabul continues. The chalk outline on the ground clearly shows a pooch being screwed."

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia didn't fear Hillary Clinton. 'It was a relationship they were comfortable with,' some CIA analysts believed, but intelligence was suppressed." It was bizarre to claim Putin desired Trump over Clinton. If true, why not affect the primaries? Democrats amplify Putin's ploy.

One shell to rule them all? "After two decades of development the U.S. Army’s new XM-AMP Advanced Multi-Purpose 120mm tank round is finally ready to be issued for use by 120mm M1 tank guns. The new shells replace several other types of 120mm shells." 

Don't assume Russia wins a war of attrition: "Currently Russian weapons manufacturers cannot deliver weapons fast enough to replace all the losses. Russia also has an increasingly more difficult time mobilizing manpower." I never assumed that.

Pouncing on Trump's hyperbole concerning European defense spending, we're asked "Is it time for Europe to take responsibility for its own defence?" Yes, as long as that means European members of NATO contributing more to that proven defense organization and not through the proto-imperial European Union.

The "stunning effectiveness" of the Iranian-sponsored Houthi anti-ship campaign. If American air power can't handily smash this threat, how can we possibly get "victory through air power" against a peer enemy? I don't think we're more interested in winning than in "sending messages" to Iran's straying rulers.

Venezuela continues to threaten Guyana while Guyana rallies allies to resist Maduro's territorial claims.

Putin critic Alexander Navalny died in prison, as Putin intended: "Navalny was moved in December from a prison in central Russia to a 'special regime' penal colony — the highest security level of prisons in the country — above the Arctic Circle." Can Putin ever provoke his future victims to take action?

David and Goliath: "[The Philippines'] coast guard and fisheries bureau 'will maintain professionalism in dealing with any unlawful and provocative behavior' by Chinese vessels in Scarborough Shoal, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said in a statement released Friday."

Iran can't fight Israel to the last dead Arab if it can't arm them: "U.S. forces found more 200 packages of lethal weapons on a vessel intended to support the Houthis that have been firing missiles in the Red Sea and disrupting international shipments in the region."

Leading the economy has backfired. And if the government follows too closely it will tax it to death. So let's try getting the government out of the way of the economy, eh?

I seriously doubt the EU will create a stable and more prosperous world through the Asia-Pacific region. I think the EU wants a stable and more powerful EU via the power to negotiate with Asia-Pacific nations. But I'm cynical that way.

Tucker Carlson should look up Purchasing Power Parity before he decides that because he can easily afford groceries in Russia that Russians can. And look up useful idiot, too. I'm not living in the Tucker is a traitor for interviewing Putin Crazytown neighborhood. But FFS, Tucker should know better.

Teacher unions are destructive parasites feeding off our children and the many good teachers. Tip to Instapundit.

The president has always been a malevolent mediocrity. He's added angry apparent senility: "This is a real-life recreation of the fable of The Emperor's New Clothes, with the White House press corps playing the role of the obsequious courtiers." Tip to Instapundit.

Russian air transport planes. Which is important. Although moot for Russia since the paratroopers are pinned in Ukraine. 

Proxy: "In late 2023 and into early 2024, Shia rebels in Yemen, armed by decades of smuggled Iranian weapons shipments, sought to block commercial shipping from entering the Red Sea by firing rockets and missiles, as well as sending out speed boats carrying explosives or armed men[.]" They keep shooting.

Scarborough Shoal: "The Philippines on Saturday accused Chinese coast guard ships of "dangerous" manoeuvres after they repeatedly blocked a vessel delivering supplies to Filipino fishermen at a reef off the Southeast Asian nation's coast."

He won't be stepping on rakes across the international stage anymore: "John Kerry is winding down his career as a diplomat. It can't come soon enough." He was the worst Secretary of State. But how would one judge anybody's role as climate czar?

Overly focusing the Marine Corps to fight China--and to fight China's navy, I'll add--is a mistake.

Our so-called elites don't like the rest of us very much. As I've said, I once respected Democrats for aligning with blue collar people. Now, Democrats would reinvent sumptuary laws. Via Instapundit. 

On October 7th, America stood with Israel against the Hamas murder and rape invasion. Now, it's all "Dude, that was like four months ago": "[Biden is planning] a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state ...". Nothing says fighting terrorists like rewarding Hamas. Ah, Smart Diplomacy®.

With a glowing self-assessment by the VP published, Democratic leaders may have reached the acceptance stage of their grief that Biden is unfit to be president. They may hope they can pull her strings as easily as Biden's. Via Instapundit.

Air defense: "The Ukraine War proved to be a major boost in sales of the European air defense systems like the Norwegian NASAMS and Germany’s IRIS-T SAM (Surface to Air Missile) system." 

What I want to know is how many Democrats think Biden is a failure because he didn't led us to Green Nirvana last week. via Instapundit.