A number of our allies have reason to believe it would be good to have nukes to deter invasion by Russia or China. North Korea may aspire to conquer South Korea, but it fears China, too. China's ability to invade North Korea is advancing almost as fast as North Korea's ability to invade South Korea decreases. Could we reverse the order of ally getting nukes to someone with nukes becoming an ally?
It was all fun and games when the CCP thought North Korea would only nuke China's foes:
The Chinese public, even with a heavily censored local Internet, made it clear they were not happy with a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons while still ruled by a homicidal and increasingly hostile to China tyrant.
Trump famously reached out to North Korea to diffuse their hostility toward America an our allies. I'm not sure how well it worked when Trump was president. But it sure didn't last under his successor.
China was once flipped when we had a common enemy, the Soviet Union, during the Cold War. That alliance of convenience didn't last the ending of the Soviet threat to China and America.
Many people think we can flip Russia to pry them from China's dominance. I've long wanted that. And believed Russia ultimately intended to turn against China. Even if it didn't intend to be friends with NATO. But I think that it is a horrible idea to think we can flip Russia by feeding them Ukraine.
Certainly, American politicians have had ambitions to befriend an equally repugnant rulers with nuclear ambitions.
But could we actually flip North Korea?
Consider that flipping enemies to allies requires a common enemy. With North Korea, we certainly have a common enemy--China. Koreans have long been dominated by China so all Koreans--north or south--have reason to worry.
North Korea borders China. North Korea has certainly taken actions to block Chinese efforts to make an invasion easier.
And North Korea may think it must do something dramatic to avoid a Chinese invasion that America and our allies might tacitly support to partition North Korea in order to end a North Korean nuclear threat.
Imagine that a nuclear-armed North Korea could deter a Chinese invasion of North Korea. And North Korea could transfer most of its army north. And even reduce it in size to make modernizing the remnant easier. Perhaps even see some sanctions reduced and eliminated in time.
And with South Korea's demographic problems, South Korea could reduce its military in size. Any plans to operate north of the DMZ could evolve to reinforcing North Korea if China invades.
The DMZ could remain in place as a safety net to keep South Korea and North Korea worried that a war of conquest could break out.
There is long history arguing against such a flip. But only twenty years after American and Chinese fought hammer and tong in the Korean War, the flip of China away from the USSR began.
Sanctions haven't worked to modify North Korean belligerence or its nuclear ambitions because China was a source of enough resources for the North Korean regime and its narrow base of support to survive and even thrive.
Fifty years after we fought North Koreans, maybe a flip based on a common enemy--China--rather than misplaced faith in bribing North Korea into good behavior can finally be an option.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
