FLASH OVERRIDE It's the Logistics, Stupid

We may mock Russia for their logistics failings. But you have to admit that Russia has been able to keep shooting and fighting--however flawed their execution is--a high-intensity war for a year now. Could America do that?

Decades ago I warned that conventional war is not inherently short:

The [Iran-Iraq] war as a whole showed us that modern war is not inherently brief. Arab-Israeli and Indo-Pakistani wars since World War II have misled us into thinking this is the norm. Desert Storm has seemingly confirmed this view and America now seeks a small but lethal Army that will strike hard, win fast, and come home. Yet by fighting on for years when most believed the First Gulf War would have to end rapidly, the Iraqis and Iranians have provided us with a much needed lesson that wars do not just end on their own. By simply pausing instead of furiously fighting Lemming-like until all weapons and ammunition are expended, these two states fought for nearly eight years.

Russia both narrowed its offensive frontage and reduced its intensity to fight beyond the time it thought was necessary. (And both expanded the war from the battlefield to economic and civilian targets, as stalemate on the battlefield developed.)

But we did not learn this lesson basic lesson from the Iran-Iraq War.

Via Instapundit, for too long we pretended we didn't need to prepare to sustain a long war. Now we have a problem:

The USA is in better shape than our allies ... and even some of our opponents as well - but you don't prevent, much less win wars, by just being marginally better. You must have overwhelming power.

If you desire a quick war, you must be armed and prepared for a long war. If you are not ready for a long war but only a quick war - then you will get the former and regret the day your predecessors bought off on the later.

America isn't the only Western country with the problem. And our problem is not the worst of the lot. 

But the problem was predictable. And wasn't fixed. And I did warn about this early in the Winter War of 2022.

We should be grateful that the West is having its noses rubbed into this mess while trying to sustain Ukraine in repelling the Russian invasion.

Is the lesson finally learned? 

For at least the past five years, military planners have paid lip-service to the growing possibility of such a conflict in the future, with a revanchist Russia in Europe or in the Pacific with a China attempting to invade Taiwan. But it has not been reflected in either the stockpiling of essential munitions or the investment in the industrial capacity required to produce them at the rate that any war lasting more than a few weeks would demand.

It would be worse if our troops were fighting while we painfully learned this lesson.

Will we act on the lesson?

UPDATE: A good lesson to learn (via Instapundit):

under no circumstances should any production line of weapons systems be allowed to go cold until its replacement achieves initial operational capability. Once those lines – and its equipment and craftsmen – are lost, they are almost impossible to get back.

The author is preaching to the choir on the long war issue. Although I’ll quibble with his assessment of our war record. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Don't Let Ukraine Fall in the Winter War of 2022

Too many Americans think America has no interest in defeating Russia in Ukraine. That is so wrong that I have trouble believing the argument is made. Europe is an asset for an enemy to exploit and not just an ally that won't spend enough to defend itself.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. But Russian losses have had an effect:

Over the last year, the war in Ukraine has morphed from a multi-front invasion that included Kyiv in the north to a conflict of attrition largely concentrated along a 600-mile stretch in the east and south.

The Russians don't seem to be able to gear up their offensive, either in intensity or in scope. And the "concentration" is practically much smaller. Bakhmut still seems to be the focus of Russia's military.

But Russia still holds significant Ukrainian territory. If the war ends with that situation ratified, that would be enough to build up as a launching pad for additional conquests in the future:

If Russia occupies Ukraine, it would effectively border Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. ... And it would raise the question of whether and when Russia would press farther west. It would put Europe in a position it never conceived it would be in: living with a hostile and powerful enemy at its border, and a not-always-predictable America guaranteeing its frontiers.

Now, as always, Russian occupation of Europe would threaten U.S. control of the Atlantic – something for which Washington fought two world wars. ...

If Ukraine falls, the U.S. will be forced to engage Russia. Fighting directly in Ukraine will be a choice, which means doing so will be politically painful. Presidents are rarely rewarded for avoiding a threat that has not yet materialized, even if it’s inevitable.

A forward defense is necessary for America. In Europe, that policy should keep Russia as far east as possible. Because if we don't, Russia has no "natural" limits for westward expansion. And America's presence keeps Europe fighting with minimal American forces.

And Poland is hardly relying on the rest of NATO to defend it:

It is part of a mammoth military spending spree spurred by the war in neighboring Ukraine. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak hopes the influx of arms will help build “the largest land force in Europe,” and he sees Warsaw signing billions in weapons contracts with U.S. suppliers.

America would need to fight Russia directly if Russia keeps moving west in the vitally important Europe. Which will draw away American power from the primary military threat in the Asia-Pacific region, with all the risks that would create as China continues to lean forward in Asia.

So it is much better for America's national security to help Ukraine stop Russia at Ukraine's borders when Ukrainians are eager to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

And for God's sake, stop saying this war is a "quagmire" because it is still raging. Ukraine was invaded a year ago. And the fact that Ukraine is still fighting is a good thing--not a sign of doom.

UPDATE: There are a couple weeks of frozen ground remaining. Might Ukraine launch a belated winter offensive to set the conditions for a spring offensive, and count on the muddy thaw between winter and spring to degrade Russian counter-attacks?

UPDATE (Wednesday): Three drones, one assumes Ukrainian, were used to attack deep into Russia. Mostly a failure but did an oil facility sustain damage?

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine says it may withdraw from Bakhmut, long under attack by Russian forces. Or Ukraine is baiting Russia into flinging more troops at their lines. Or both, in sequence.  

UPDATE (Saturday): I don't see reports of potential Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut and reports of Ukrainian reinforcements being sent as conflicting information. 

To keep an enemy from turning an orderly withdrawal to another defensive line into a rout and gaping hole in your front you ideally want fresh troops to assist the withdrawing forces and keep the enemy cautious.

I'm still impressed that the Russians withdrew across the Dnieper River in Kherson province without the Ukrainians hammering them at the river. 

UPDATE (Saturday): I'd bury a massive string of explosives in Bakhmut's city center sewers to detonate when the Russians pull in to celebrate their victory.

UPDATE (Saturday): Losing Bakhmut wouldn't be much of a defeat for Ukraine, given the time and casualties Russia spent to be on the verge of taking it. But by fighting so long for it, it gained a value for Russia no matter how hollow that seems to observers. 

Would Ukraine launch a big counteroffensive as Russian forces exhaust themselves pushing into the wrecked city? Bakhmut itself wouldn't be the objective. Destroying the Russian ground forces capturing Bakhmut would be the objective.

My only concern is that Ukraine would be doing Putin a favor by destroying Wagner troops. Still, a big battlefield victory on offense that secured Bakhmut as a side effect would hurt Putin. We'll see. With so much talk about a counteroffensive in Zaporizhia (and I've done my share), is Ukraine looking elsewhere?

UPDATE (Sunday): I remain unsure of Ukraine's intent. 

An attack south from Zaporizhia to reach the Sea of Azov makes sense. It is farther from Russian supply sources. And the Kerch Strait bridge is still not fully repaired. Kherson front forces could launch an amphibious and airmobile assault across the Dnieper River when the main attack starts making serious advantages in the south.

Further, an attack on the Donbas front runs into the teeth of Russia's logistics system.

On the other hand, the Russians have had a lot of time to rest units on the southern front and have built lots of fortifications. And the Kerch Strait bridge is getting repaired. It would have been better to strike when the bridge was damaged. 

And as Russian forces batter themselves against Ukrainian defenders for small gains--and not only at Bakhmut--Ukraine gets two advantages. One, Russian units and supplies are depleted. And two, Russian forces advance into areas where they do not have fortifications to hold the line.

Another factor is that I don't know where the mud is forming. Is it worse in the Donbas? Is the ground still okay in the south? Maybe Ukraine has to wait until this mud season passes. Or maybe Ukraine has a window of still-firm ground to take ground and then use the mud to impede Russian attacks to eject the Ukrainians.

So I don't know where Ukraine commits what I assume is a gathering strategic reserve being built since Russia invaded. And I think I know that Ukraine will strike where it thinks it has the best chance of a decisive battlefield victory because the stakes are so high. 

UPDATE (Sunday): ISW thinks that Russia's recent faltering attacks may be wearing out the army and setting the stage for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

I hope so. If Ukraine has the strategic reserve and ammunition. And if Ukraine doesn't give Russia even more time as it did after the September counteroffensives by not being able to generate a counteroffensive to take advantage of that fleeting opportunity before Russia reinforced its forces.

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here.

Weekend Data Dump

Hungary's Orban is really annoying me. He repeats the nonsense that the West is prolonging Russia's invasion of Ukraine by arming it rather than negotiating with Putin. I'll ask again, why is making Russia's conquest of Ukraine faster and easier the preferred policy? And only arming Ukraine has forced Russia to scale back its territorial goals in this war--in practice, not in ultimate terms--from all of Ukraine to "only" parts of it. What an a-hole.

Grassroots efforts in the three Baltic states and Poland to support Ukrainian troops in the field. Add this to Ukrainians and the rest of the West and you have my reachback for the camp followers notion.

Will China openly support Russia's war effort? "Mr Blinken told CBS News that Chinese companies were already providing 'non-lethal support' to Russia - and new information suggested Beijing could provide 'lethal support'."

Now the Left agrees this is bad? Tip to Instapundit.

China's genocide. The only question is whether it is an actual genocide using murder or a cultural genocide of the Uyghurs that will take generations to complete. Tip to Instapundit.

Where is the 9th planet in our Solar System? (And I swear to God I'll slap you if you say "Pluto".) Tip to Instapundit.

Why more and more people question the elites. Yes, it is true that the idea that university-based knowledge credentials are over-valued compared to experience. But the education credentials all too often in this era reflect not education but a woke stamp of approval with little real education involved. As they say, do read it all. Tip to Instapundit.

More on the possibility of China providing military aid to Russia. The U.S. ambassador said that would be a "red line." What does that mean? Doing something to provoke China to openly aid Russia would be a mistake. Pushing China to be a co-belligerent would be Sicilian Expedition level of stupid.

For too many, tensions aren't raised by China's aggression but by America's response: "TENSIONS between the United States and China could worsen in the Indo-Pacific region this year as Washington holds its biggest joint military drills with the Philippines since 2015, according to security analysts."

Well yes, Russia is waging war on Ukraine while Ukraine is waging war on Russia's military. That logically follows from Russia's claim that Ukraine isn't a real country and should be run by Moscow. Although at some level, Western sanctions on Russia are Ukraine's war on Russia itself. And of course, Russia battles Ukraine's military, too.

Good: "The U.S. is increasing the production of weapons at some locations that were previously shut down to meet the demands of American military commitments to Ukraine." Although I find it odd that the assumption is that Russia can't over time ramp up at least ammunition production to match or exceed our capacity.

China's training for surface navy combat. Has it kept pace with massive naval expansion? Is it any good? We count on our training advantage. But I'm not confident our own training for surface warfare is anywhere nearly good enough. And that's apart from the effects of a quarter century of lobbing cruise missiles at static land targets.

Interesting: "Currently, America is capable of making about 180,000 155mm shells a year, while Europe, according to Bastian Giegerich of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, cranked out about 300,000 last year." I'm extremely surprised that Europe produces more than America. Also, making precision weapons standardized mass-produced items rather than a nearly handcrafted would be good. Excellent article. But they're preaching to the TDR choir.

Good idea: "Former Warsaw Pact countries are even toying with reopening factories to make 152mm munitions, so Ukraine can keep using its Soviet artillery." And it was a good idea 8 months ago. 

This is good as a symbol, so kudos to Biden: "Joe Biden has hit out at Vladimir Putin on his first visit to Kyiv since the war began." But let's not get carried away saluting "bravery". And I'm not gonna lie, I worry that letting Ukrainians see Biden up close will scare the Hell out of them just as he scares Democrats (via Instapundit).

Russia shot themselves in the foot by invading Ukraine: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has long seen Central Asia as Russia’s 'most stable region.' He has regularly exerted influence and political pressure over its leaders. However, after decades of stability, the last year has seen Russia’s influence in Central Asia deteriorate at an unprecedented pace." Indeed. Russia better hope China isn't replacing their influence. It may be a general problem, eh?

The lower class must know their place (via Instapundit): "Vice President Kamala Harris has come under fire for sharing a distasteful photo of her, maskless, bending down to meet a young girl who was wearing a Covid mask in a stunt that several social media users have pointed out is unfair." As I noted earlier:

 

God love them and best of luck to them, and all that. I'm all in favor of equal rights. But accommodating transgender people should not be a military problem. Add one more substitute for victory that our leadership values. Hey, here's another substitute to focus on.

The Wagner Group's role in Russia's military effort. Also, the high casualties reported of recruited convicts were from first wave. I don't think that can be extrapolated to all recruits. Not yet anyway.

Paying to keep the best of the best in uniform.

Europe has backed Ukraine and sustained its economy better than expected a year ago. But I protest the descriptions of conservative parties by their origins as  dangerously ultra-right parties. Or are we free to paint Democrats here as the party that went to war to defend slavery?

Artillery is much in demand for Ukraine: "Because they're fighting a conflict without an air force, essentially all of their fire support is from artillery. So, they are using it at rates that exceed, for example, how we would fight." That's mostly true for the Russians, too. I've noted that as long as enemy air power is nullified you can use artillery just fine in place of your own air power.

Roald Dahl is stealth censored by woke editors. I wouldn't trust that my e-books won't be changed like this. If you value a book, keep a paper edition. Nobody is ordering book owners to bring their paper copies in to the Fire Department for censoring. Well, not yet. The barbarians are inside the walls and pretending we are the barbarians.

There are Russians who would have Russia join the free West.

Japan has pledged an additional $5.5 billion in financial aid for Ukraine.

Saying we must give Russia an escape route from the war it started implies this is a war in which Russia faces destruction. So we need to give Russia an open path of retreat to get them to stop fighting. That is not the case. The war would end with Russia intact if it withdrew from its conquests. Nobody will pursue them into Russia. So Russia already has an escape route. Anything more involves rewarding Putin's aggression.

NATO reacts to Putin: "Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on February 19 said he and Biden will discuss the possibility of increasing the U.S. troop presence in Poland and making it more permanent." That is happening already because we've gone well beyond REFORPOL being enough.

Oh, Lord: "There are reports of more collapsed buildings [in] Turkey [and] Syria after another 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck Turkey’s Hatay province which was devastated by a massive tremor two week ago."

And now for something completely different:

 

Erdogan denies a link between lifting Turkey's black ball on Sweden's NATO membership and getting American F-16s, but as long as Turkey is holding NATO membership for Sweden (and indirectly, Finland) hostage, Turkey isn't getting F-16s. 

A new relatively small package of American military assistance to Ukraine. Mostly ammunition and stuff that can be used quickly when received. And Bradley fire support vehicles to call in fires. Is that a first?

Canada unleashes the wild "super pig" on America. If it can be made into bacon, bring it on.

I'm not in the Tulsi Gabbard fan club. She's easy on the eyes, but she's no conservative. Although I'm happy to have more of her in the Democratic Party. Is it just me?

No mean dissenting Tweets: "The real story emerging in the #TwitterFiles is about a ballooning federal censorship bureaucracy that's not aimed at either the left or the right per se, but at the whole population of outsiders, who are being systematically defined as threats." Via Instapundit.

CBS will have a very selective "election denier" forum that looks at some election denie(R)s while ignoring other (D)eniers. Tip to Instapundit. And a tip to Treacher for that party identifier usage.

Daniel Ortega's return to power and continuing descent into dictatorship after President Reagan's pressure drove him from power (aided by an election Ortega didn't rig enough) is a lesson that the only good communist is a dead communist. 

Flinging poo and beating his chest: "Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that Moscow was suspending its participation in the New START treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States" Bold move, Cotton. Let's see how it works out. I still wonder if Putin is scaring Russians more than Westerners.

South Korea abandons space launch partnership with Russia. Tip to Instapundit. 

WT Actual F, Spain? That's one PETA boycott I'd support. But PETA probably won't touch that. We'll always have sickos. Why do governments want to ratify their behavior? Tip to Instapundit.

I hear complaints that Biden's pledge while in Kiev to support Ukraine as long as it takes essentially commits America to a "forever war". That charge fails on two counts. One, Russia can't fight forever. And two, there are no American blank checks. Who actually believes American leaders don't change their mind? I'm so old I remember when Afghanistan was the "good war".

Stop Russia now or we'll be fighting them further west (via Instapundit). I prefer the Russians as far east as possible. 

Until we get people living in space to be mobilized, I'm against a Space National Guard. I mean, we skipped right over a Marine Guard and Coast Guard ... Guard. Okay, the last one would be awkward. But my point stands. Besides, the service is too small to justify state-level organizations.

It's our third raid in a short period: "American forces, working with the Syrian Democratic Forces, captured an ISIS provincial official in a helicopter raid in eastern Syria this morning, U.S. Central Command announced." We use information from raids to quickly nail targets of opportunity before they can rabbit away.

Oh? "[The] United States is still deciding which [Abrams tank] version is best and whether it will pull those vehicles from existing stockpiles or have them produced, according to a top US State Department official." So we may send Abrams with depleted uranium armor? I thought the point of producing them was to limit the tech sent there?

India is working to expand its influence to the Middle East. Well, with China expanding its footprint on the Indian Ocean, that makes sense. 

And now for something completely different:

The Netherlands buys HIMARS. 

I disagree with this testimony about the National Guard that rests on an incorrect description of Congressional and presidential war powers. And if that interpretation gains ground, the federal government won't fund the Guard as the military's combat reserve and will instead send the money to the Air Force and Army Reserves to create that capability. I noted this effort back in 2021.

There are 41,000 hours of surveillance footage from the January 6th riot? Let's just assume that there is footage for 12 hours of action. Does this mean there are over 3,400 security cameras around the Capitol Building and its grounds? Once again:

 

The Estonians deny that Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine validates "triumphal declarations of Russia and its actions having become a strategic failure. However appealing it may sound, it is premature to declare winners and losers." Yes. If Russia hold its conquests, Russia will be encouraged to do it again. And Russia will learn hard lessons in this war. If it takes another generation to complete, it is is still a Russian victory. And there are Russians with more territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine.

The Chinese are retiring elderly planes that are copies of Soviet Mig-21s. But: "There are indications that China may turn J-7s into suicide drones for use in a massive attack on Taiwan." I suggested this for Israeli planes too old for service.

People on a mission from God change nothing: "Iran’s city of Qom is one of the country’s most important centers for Shiite Muslim clerics, packed with religious schools and revered shrines. But even here, some are quietly calling for Iran’s ruling theocracy to change its ways after months of protests shaking the country." 

So ... the idea that Nikki Haley is a white supremacist candidate is amazing. According to the left, whites are so racist that they'll vote for minorities who have [checks notes] policies they like. FFS.

Know your place, peasants! "The European Union is suing Poland after its top court challenged the primacy of the bloc’s law and failed to act impartially, in the latest escalation of the bloc’s already tense relations with the nation over its alleged defiance of the rule of law." The proto-imperial EU wants subject provinces and not member nations.  Luckily, there is resistance to stripping away the prefix.

The Russians plan to fully absorb Belarus by 2030: "According to the document, issued in fall 2021, the end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. " I noted the Anschluss. I've said taking Belarus should have been Putin's priority over Ukraine. I guess it was. But will Putin's invasion of Ukraine provoke Belarusians to revolt?

We need as much shipyard capacity as we can get: "At a cost of $100 million, Austal USA has opened a waterfront shipyard in National City that will compete for contracts to repair and modernize Navy ships in San Diego, home of the largest naval fleet on the West Coast."

Back in the day, I avoided eating anything with poppy seeds to avoid a false-positive drug test. 

Latvia's military build up will include HIMARS and anti-ship missiles. Hold off the Russians and keep the Russian navy away from the coast.

Yeah, I have doubts: "North Korea claims its nuclear forces are capable of destroying its rivals, and often follows its provocative weapons tests with launch details. But many foreign experts call the North’s claims propaganda and suggest that the country is not yet capable of hitting the United States or its allies with a nuclear weapon." The odds are higher that shorter-range missiles that can hit South Korea and Japan work.

Are the Estonians right that Russia got one big thing right that NATO has apparently failed on? "Ammunition stocks are at 7 million units, allowing [Russia] to continue the war with the same intensity at least until mid-2023 – and this estimate is constantly extending due to increasing production rates, which are likely significantly up from the pre-war 1.7 million units per year.

The Libyans are still trying to form a national government. The Turks and their mercenaries are a big speed bump. 

Russia adapts defense production to sanctions. Over time Russia can cope. Also, Russia has lost 302 military aircraft, including helicopters; and Ukraine has lost 142.

Don't trust China.

If another Palestinian "intifada" is about to break out, the Palestinians have never had less support for it. Gulf Arab states are more concerned about Iran, Iran is broke, and Russia is at war. And when will the Palestinians accept any state rather than demanding the effective destruction of Israel? On the other hand, Israel seems to be undermining its ability to resist as a unified state.

Indeed: "The war in Ukraine, now approaching its first anniversary, is continually changing European politics. And as a result, the hub of European leadership is trending eastward — most obviously toward Poland." And the growing hub of NATO.

A reminder that I believe any defeat of Russia that isn't clear and reflected in Russia's loss of conquered territory sows the seeds of future Russian hatred of NATO and more aggression.

Do not become confused, the F-35 is a good plane. I was worried until I realized the doubts were seeded and fed by Russia.

Letting upper middle class Westerners feel superior with their "planet-saving" EVs imposes a high cost on the environment in the Third World. As if any of those foreigners will "like" your social media picture of your new EV sitting next to your bank of recycling bins!

Is it Biden's fault that Russia and China are "closer" than ever before? First, define "closer." Ultimately, Russia chose that route. Second, if splitting Russia from China relies on throwing victims to Russia, that will never satisfy the Russians who recognize a sucker when they see one. I'm no fan of Biden, but Russia didn't need his help to ef up.

Integrating Western fighters into Ukraine's military requires a lot of work that isn't fast, especially when you look at close air support for ground troops. Would establishing the Flying Tigers 2.0 speed that up?

Hopefully Sweden's ban on burning Korans is just to get Turkey's approval of its NATO membership. After Sweden joins, hopefully a court rules it against Sweden's laws. And if a court won't, Sweden broadens the law to include all holy books to get a court to strike down the law.

Yeah, I'm sure our federal government over-classifies documents more to protect bureaucrats and politicians from consequences than to protect real secrets from enemies. And only the little people pay consequences for failing to secure them. I mean, Hillary Clinton still roams free despite a pre-meditated private email server to avoid State Department procedures to protect secrets. And an obvious effort to erase the evidence when caught.

Oh? "Wang Yi, China’s most senior foreign-policy official, said Beijing is willing to work with Moscow to defend both countries’ national territories during talks with Russia’s security chief on Tuesday" Why that Chinese pledge doesn't scare the Hell out of Russia is beyond me.

Oops: "Russia tried and failed a test launch of its new intercontinental ballistic missile while Joe Biden was in neighbouring Ukraine, it has been reported." The poo failed to launch so Putin could not beat his chest. A sign of a wider rot?

Wargaming to learn rather than to ratify bureaucratic imperatives. I'm not sure what our wargames do.

The enemy of my enemy. Look, we enlisted West Germany to resist the USSR ten years after defeating Nazi Germany. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine will get a JDAM with a range of 45 miles. Interesting. Ukraine's air force is still flying enough to use them, eh? I wonder if a drone could carry some to hit the Kerch Strait bridge? Tip to Instapundit.

Shockingly, "stone axe-free zones" didn't work very well for early humans. Simple savages were neither noble nor peaceful. When you make stuff, others want to take it. And then you need to defend it. Tip to Instapundit.

The Iranians are not finished with protesting the mullah regime.

An American airstrike mows the jihadi grass again in Somalia.

As it was early on, "the world" is not united against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Still, the West is holding together better than I thought. That's the important measure.

Russia's ability to fix its problems waging war founder on a refusal to accept what is considered "badthink" as the foundation of change. 

Propellers.

Will cyber-war keep the Navy from leaving the pier?

Targets in Russian-occupied Mariupol--beyond the practical range of HIMARS--are blowing up. Does Ukraine have new Western weapons or did Ukraine build their own? Or, notwithstanding Russian air defenses lighting up, could special forces and partisans be involved?

Victor Hanson is getting an eerie inter-war vibe about the Winter War of 2022. I'm not. Which is odd. I guess I wonder how Putin can start World War II 2.0 when he plays the role of Mussolini and not Hitler. And if we have a pre-World War I period analogy, unless China gives Russia a blank check of support, we're not there, either.

Just a reminder of how optimistic I am at heart. I really thought the budding Resistance would calm down or that I could ignore it if it didn't. I underestimated the ability of the media to sustain the THC. And so I overestimated my ability to resist commenting on the insanity. But I did not succumb to defending Trump reflexively, at least.

Don't be silly, Democrats can be as racist and sexist as they want to Republicans! The media will go along happily.

This article says that wokeness in the military isn't depressing recruiting among potential Republican recruits as much as societal wokeness is depressing the willingness of potential Democratic recruits to enlist. Could be. And it is almost assured that more wokeness in the military won't attract a demographic that wokeness has turned against America and military service. But I'm sure military wokeness undermines the ability of the military to fight and win wars. Our military has too many substitutes for victory to pursue.

The Coast Guard is increasing western Pacific deployments to combat China's subliminal aggression using naval militia and coast guard assets to bully neighbors.

The Science: unsettled.

If there are infinite genders why don't people just accept their gray-area gender with all the pride it deserves? Why do all the gender changes seem to only involve going from men to women, or vice versa, with surgery? I'll accept whatever you choose to "assign" yourself. I can't be made to celebrate your choice. But I'll certainly tolerate it as I expect you to tolerate me.

China's Belt and Road massive lending program in the Third World to build trade infrastructure was welcomed--until China demanded repayment. Collateral, meet damage. Tip to Instapundit.

I have no problem with a full accounting of American aid to Ukraine. But the real savings would come from a full accounting of money for American domestic recipients of Covid stimulus and "Inflation Reduction Act" spending.

Actual science deniers. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is deploying very old BTR-50 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine. It's a bigger version of the M-113. Although it is a contemporary of the M-75. The BTR-50 will be adequate if it is a rear area security vehicle rather than a front line combat vehicle.

Some say Western sanctions on Russia have failed. But Russia is lying about its economic statistics. Russia lies a lot. Here's an article if you'd prefer print: "It appears Russia is well on its way toward its long-held worst fear: becoming a weak economic dependent of China–its source of cheap raw materials." To be fair, Russia chose vassal status. And the West tried to welcome Russia--which withdrew from the USSR in relief, I should add. #WhyRussiaCan'thaveNiceThings

Or maybe ... And I'm just spitballing here ... if this is self-reported data, men lie more these days. Other men, obviously. 

The new reality: "Poland wants to see larger stockpiles of U.S. weaponry on its soil, which would allow allies to respond faster in a crisis, the country’s head of state said this week." REFORPOL endorsed!

American Abrams tanks may not reach Ukraine this year. Sigh. It's just 31. This is beyond our capabilities? Unless this is misinformation.

It's always something: "The Canadian military has discovered Chinese spy buoys in the Arctic which are monitoring US submarines and melting ice sheets." This isn't new. It's just new to the public. It's interesting that China wants an Arctic Sea route to Europe. Which goes past Alaska for easy interdiction.

Russia has hurt itself by invading Ukraine. But Ukraine has been wounded, too. Which is why I want to help Ukraine win--not try to finely calibrate a nuanced barely sufficient Ukrainian victory that doesn't cripple Russia too much. On the flip side of the coin, we should not throw Ukraine under the bus out of fear of Russian power.

Pakistan engineered a Taliban victory in Afghanistan to get a friendly and compliant Afghanistan. Oops.

Extending Ukraine's ability to reach out and touch Russian supplies. Oh, and also Russian ships at sea.

Sanctions are not a quick, decisive blow. They add costs to an enemy. Even if the enemy finds ways around sanctions. It's move and counter-move. It's a war of attrition. I never expected sanctions to be decisive and fast. Although I had doubts as so many experts promised quick results. I should not have had doubts.

Well that's unfortunate word choice:

To be clear, our Secretary of Transportation sucks because he is incompetent--not because he is a gay white man.

Will Putin's invasion of Ukraine splinter Russia? Possibly. But in the short run Russia can reduce the chances by turning around and leaving Ukraine. Nobody will pursue them. In the long run, Russia should stop being a-holes and join the West. But Putin has decided it is death or glory time. His glory through conquest in Europe or Russia's death from utter failure. And it is not up to the West to give Putin victories to avoid the fragmentation of Russia.

I've hoped that a bloodied Russia might be deterred from renewing a war against Ukraine even if Russia keeps its conquests. But I think this analogy does not bolster that point: "Students of the U.S. War of Independence will remember the Battle of Bunker Hill. There, British soldiers occupying Boston succeeded in seizing the high ground. But their victory came at the cost of so many of their soldiers killed and severely wounded that they never undertook an initiative like that again. Let us hope that the West’s fortitude and Putin’s failure in this case reduces Russia’s appetite for subsequent attacks on its neighbors." The British went on to fight Americans for many more years after that 1775 bloody nose, withdrawing only in 1783. And coming back for another go at us in 1812.

The U.S. wants to expand training missions for Taiwanese troops. Good. The Taiwanese need that.

Marine Corps logistics were insufficient for past operations let alone being good enough for their new distributed operations across the western Pacific. More on small stockpiles forward with boats and supply UAVs to sustain them.

China takes a critical look at Russia's military performance. Would China provide limited military aid to Russia just to have them tested in a combat environment to learn more?

The United States marked the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a large military aid package for Ukraine. I won't offer one-year analysis. Day 365 is little different from the last 150, really.

Stalemate in the Black Sea. But this cracks me up: "While [WHO???] speculated an amphibious assault on Odesa was imminent, , Russia didn’t indicate it planned to launch one, Cancian said." I've done that to hold a place until I clarified something! Oops. I feel the author's or editor's pain. I didn't think Russia could mount much more than a small supporting amphibious landing for an overland drive.

Inflation is not defeated. Tip to Instapundit.

Deja vu all over again: "The [Iraqi security forces] inability to permanently dislodge ISIS from the northern Baghdad Belts could allow ISIS to use these areas to launch attacks into Baghdad. The Baghdad Belts are a series of suburban areas around Baghdad that ISIS and its predecessors have used to build the capabilities necessary to launch major attacks into the city." The 2007 surge operations focused on defeating ISIL in the Baghdad Belts. Are we sleepwalking as we did before the ISIL flood in the middle of 2014? I begged our government to pay attention. Are we paying attention now?

I'm starting to agree with feminists that we live in a patriarchy. Now, even the best women are men. Tip to Instapundit.

Germany wants India to play a role in isolating Russia. I thought India would be the best actor to get Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. But I guess Russia is too much in thrall to China these days to listen to anyone else. So Ukraine is playing along with China's faux peace initiative.

Is China learning from Russia that it is too difficult to invade Taiwan? Well, here's hoping. I worry that the Chinese think it is obvious that their civilization would do far better than those hairy steppe chimps with broken nukes.

Will South Korea become the next nuclear-armed state? In my opinion, yes. The moment South Korea is convinced America won't trade Seattle for Seoul. But it would be a race with Japan. And Ukraine will be a late entrant if it doesn't join NATO.

In my view, Democrats aren't protecting voters--as in protecting legally eligible voters. Democrats are seeking to protect ballots that add a vote to Democrats.

The idea that China wants the war in Ukraine to drag on is nonsense. As time goes on, the West's industrial capacity to sustain a war increases. Of course, the longer the war goes on the more Russia's military is crippled. Which might be handy for China. And I'll admit that China would benefit from a Russian-American war. 

LOL!

 

Because I'm a classic liberal conservative rather than a strong-man conservative of the European type, I often had sympathies for non-foreign policy positions of Democrats when they had solid classic liberal positions on civil liberties. But now that Democrats are crawling with illiberal progressives--which is indistinguishable from Euro-conservatives in terms of state power in addition to their damaging solutions to problems--I have little respect for their policies. American political labels are weak in this regard. Conservatives who are classic liberals have less in common with strong-man conservatives or strong-person progressives. It doesn't seem like continental Europe has America's kind of classic liberals, does it? American exceptionalism, again. Tip to Instapundit.

Question: Are Americans resisting going back into the offices to work post-pandemic lockdowns because they fear their human resources departments; and feel safer from cancellation and routine coercion in their own homes? Is that the only safe place from wokeness?

The Marines evolve to return ... to the sea. I'm not entirely happy. But it may be lack of information. Even if most of the Marine Corps MLR needs can be met with cheap LSMs (formerly LAW, which I'm not happy with), I don't know why APDs can't be in the mix. 

Latvia adopts conscription, joining fellow Baltic state NATO members Estonia and Lithuania in preparing to resist the Russians if they cross the border. They escaped the USSR and don't want to return no matter how far west the Russians want their border. Russian paranoia will not decrease no matter how far west Russia advances.

Michael Beschloss thinks their is a MAGA plot afoot in Georgia. It's funny that Blue-Anon doesn't see that woman is as nuts as he is. "Historian." More like a hysterian.

Interesting, if true: "Russia shot down several of its own aircraft in the initial days of the invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a dearth of willing pilots needed for Moscow to achieve air superiority, The Financial Times reported." Will the Russians turn off their air defenses to get their pilots flying?

The Winter War is weakening Europe? This is a silly take. Europe is becoming a military pole in a multi-polar world regardless of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Hell I've noted that Europe was important in the Cold War mainly because the central front was the inter-German border. But the war is getting Europe to re-arm. How would Europe be better off blindly sliding into irrelevance as Turkey, India, and others grow in power? Europe is still a concentration of demographic, economic, and scientific power. Being able to defend that is relevant to the Europe and the world.

Seymour Hersh's article does not prove America bombed the Nordstream pipelines. It has many flaws. That said, his errors do not prove America didn't do it. I still think an accident is the most likely culprit. But I could be persuaded otherwise.

Woo! Saying this is no longer racist hate, right? "The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress." Now coax the skittish intel squirrel to say the word "Wuhan".

Why I don't trust our intelligence agencies these days: The CIA director says Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. But could make the uranium needed to make nuclear warhead in weeks. Also, he notes Iran has a ballistic missile program. And how much help from North Korea has Iran purchased already?

The Host is Dying

Pakistan is running out of other people’s money while the Pakistani military keeps sucking the country dry.

Shocking? 

Decades-old political economic problems in Pakistan are coming to a head. The South Asian nation needs billions of dollars in financial assistance to avoid a default at a time when its usual patrons are disinclined to bail it out.

America tolerated Pakistan's double-dealing while we had to. 

But America finally got tired of subsidizing Pakistan’s support for the Taliban. And losing the Afghanistan War completely ended our interest in spending money on that lost cause.

Good luck to Pakistan with their new Chinese friends. Are they willing to subsidize Pakistan's unsustainable clusterfuck? 

To be more accurate, the problem is Pakistan’s military that has impoverished Pakistan while maintaining control with corruption, violence, and the exaggerated threat from India—which hardly wanted to control that mess and has even less interest as China’s power rises.

Only real reform that dethrones the Pakistani military's parasitic relationship with the state can help. 

Or will Pakistan be the first country to threaten to use nukes if it doesn't get IMF loans?

UPDATE: Gloom hangs over Pakistan:

Every major institution and influential group of people has failed the country: the government; the army and intelligence apparatus; the judiciary; parliament; political leaders and parties; the media; the educational and health systems; the civil services; the landed, business and religious elites; etc. Together they have ensured a failed state. The primary culprits are known. They couldn’t care less.

The Quaid, the Pakistan Movement and the people of Pakistan are incessantly mocked. In his last days, the Quaid told the Raja of Mehmudabad “I am surrounded by traitors”. Today, the country is besieged by them. No enemy of Pakistan matches the enmity of its own rulers. They laugh all the way to their foreign banks and talk of national security and economic stability while the ruled sink below the poverty line to wither and die.

Can those who resist the problems gain the power to fix Pakistan? Not if addressing "climate catastrophe" is part of their solution. Seriously, the problems are a little more local, don't you think?

Jihadis are more likely to exploit the problems with promises to fix the problem while causing even worse problems. Including owning the nukes.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The ICS Strikes a Blow at Carrier Dominance

What was once called network-centric naval warfare is being built. How can the platform-centric carrier fit in to that Navy?

America's super carriers are the pinnacle of platform-centric warfare. When massing effects required massing assets, the carrier's strike aircraft massed the decisive weapons in one place for effective command and control. But the development of persistent surveillance, secure networked communications, and highly accurate long-range missiles has allowed a navy to mass effects without massing assets.

The Navy is in the "early days" of building the Integrated Combat System (ICS) that links the sensors and weapons of multiple assets:

The U.S. Navy is considering how best to equip ships and sailors to take advantage of fleetwide connectivity that Project Overmatch will provide. At the heart of this is the Integrated Combat System, a single hardware-agnostic software suite that all ships can pull from to conduct missions alone or in a group. ...

The key to this “paradigm shift” — of connecting a group of ships and allowing their combat systems to collectively agree on a best course of action based on ships’ locations, munitions stocks and other factors — is the aids that will help humans make rapid decisions, Pyle explained.

“The ability for a decision-maker — whether they’re in the fleet, whether they’re in a strike group, whether they’re in ... a maritime operations center, or whether they’re sitting on a cruiser — to be able to pair any sensor to any shooter, that’s pretty powerful,” he told Defense News during the conference.

It may be the early days of ICS, but the concept under different names has been around a long time.

I've noted the possibilities when you can separate the sensor from the shooter in aerial warfare, too. That is the foundation of ICS.

And at the beginning of this century I wrote about the effects of network-centric warfare on the platform-centric aircraft carrier:

Under the conditions of today’s platform-centric warfare, dispersal weakens a force and makes it slow to respond and mount a concentrated attack. In order to concentrate effect in an attack with platforms, forces need to be collocated or, if dispersed, near the enemy (or collocated with or near the friendly asset to be defended). Aircraft carriers overcome this problem of delivering massed effect by collocating a powerful air wing on a mobile airfield that, on its own, can deliver strong blows. While a carrier may be assisted by outside sensors and weapons systems, the carrier's and associated battle group's organic capability to fight enemy assets is substantial and greater than any other individual naval platform. Before Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles entered service with the fleet’s escorts, the carriers were the sole means of offensive action and represented “the highest value seaborne target against which an enemy could aim.” These newer weapons allowed any surface action group to conduct offensive warfare.

According to the United States Navy, the basic advantage of network-centric warfare is that the Navy will be able to deploy widely dispersed units that mass effect in a timely manner without needing to mass the components themselves, as platform-centric warfare requires, for coordinated action. Superior surveillance, communications, mobility, and weapons effectiveness and range will allow this geographic dispersal of units. Even before the dawn of network-centric warfare, the widespread deployment of surface-to-surface missiles throughout the Navy made the aircraft carrier an important asset rather than one vital for offensive missions. By allowing all the units in the network to fight as a physically dispersed but tactically unified force, networks will make the carrier platform’s ability redundant. Concentration of effect will no longer rely on concentration of forces. In addition to the evident offensive value, this characteristic has defensive value by reducing the footprint of our forces, thus avoiding giving the enemy an attractive, high-value target. Dispersed small units that can fight as one yet remain dangerous despite the loss of even many of the individually less capable platforms will confound the enemy's efforts to deliver a decisive strike against the Navy.

But the delay is no less devastating for the survivability of carriers when enemies have similar capabilities.

I'm not saying carriers lose all their value with this kind of network. Carriers have two basic roles. One is achieving sea control against a peer enemy. The other is power projection against enemies ashore that cannot effectively strike--or even find--the carrier at sea.

With ICS-equipped enemies, the former role becomes too expensive to carry out. Carriers will be sunk and their host of sailors, pilots, and expensive stealth and support planes will be lost in minutes as swarms of enemy missiles converge on the target. 

You may say that ICS-equipped escorts will be able to mass defensive missiles and systems to protect the carrier. But I doubt that the defenses could stop all the inbound missiles. Enough will evade defenses to get at least a mission-kill. Is it really worth it to use networks to defend the big platform-centric offensive carrier instead of focusing on networked offense?

The future I wrote about is arriving later than I thought. But it gets worse for carriers:

The multibillion-dollar endeavor, referred to as JADC2, envisions any sensor feeding any shooter the data he or she needs — meaning responses to foreign aggression will likely be quicker, more efficient and less constrained by geography.

At the same time, the Navy is pursuing what’s known as distributed maritime operations: becoming harder to find, harder to target and harder to sink. Underpinning the concept is the need for reliable, insulated connectivity.

This is broader than the Navy capability being built and has more uses than just naval warfare if the sheer volume of expanding the capability beyond the more manageable Navy assets that must be included.

And why bother tying up so many ICS-equipped escorts to defend expensive super carriers when those ships could be in ICS-equipped strike groups swarming an enemy with offensive missiles? 

The carriers will remain useful against smaller enemies that can't strike them. And the carriers could be committed like cavalry of old when the ICS-equipped swarm wins control of the seas and breaks an enemy's naval cohesion to fight networked. Then the carriers can be committed to help sink the scattered and isolated vessels. And used to project power ashore to really exploit control of the seas.

My prophecy is old. And delayed. But the vision is arriving even bigger than my original thoughts. Will the Navy lose the carriers needlessly in combat because it is too sentimental and reverential about their history? Or will the Navy phase out the carriers from their central role by relegating a smaller number to power projection roles, using the money for more ICS-capable ships?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Britain Resets. Again.

Brexit isn't the cause of British defense shortfalls. Give Britain time as it recovers from the whiplashes of winning the Cold War, the War on Terror, Brexit, and Russia's renewed imperial ambitions.

This author rightly notes that America can't ignore Europe to deal with Asia:

Although China remains the primary long-term challenge to American interests and security, it’s equally clear Russia will remain a spoiler in Europe at least through the end of this decade and possibly longer. Moscow’s conflation of security and subservient buffer states is likely to continue running headlong into the West’s vital interest in sovereignty and self-determination. The deal to send tanks to Ukraine should remind Washington that it must continue to exercise leadership in both theaters vital to the American way of life, carefully balancing the resources necessary to do so in each.

I concur. Bravo. But not because of the issue of supplying tanks to Ukraine shows Germany is wary of acting without America. Germany has its own issues that it hopes immersion in the purifying pacifism of the EU can wash away.

So that's something to quibble with. But then the author went and ruined the ride by saying Britain is reducing its military because of Brexit. Nonsense. This is the record since the tail end of the Cold War of British defense spending:

Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016 and didn't actually leave until 2020. 

In the year after Brexit, British defense spending dropped. Then rose. And Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will likely push spending higher.

If you go to the source of that chart for a longer look, you'll also notice that British defense spending declined after the Cold War and then shot up after the 9/11 Islamist terror attacks, peaking in 2007, before dropping to a plateau until 2014, and then dropping fast.

I don't see the Brexit slump alleged. And Britain's government has pledged defense spending increases.

That clearly biased pro-EU statement undermines the author's credibility. How many continental European states in the EU have more capable military force than Britain? 

And what problems exist are due to both the price of transitioning, the pandemic and lockdown, and the ongoing European Union effort to punish Britain for leaving the EU lest other peasants get dangerous ideas. Indeed, the proto-empire forces inside Britain are undermining Brexit with bad predictions and neglecting the value of breaking the ankle chains.

Is Britain's army a hot mess? Yes: 

A senior U.S. general has recently warned U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace that the British Army is no longer considered to be among the world’s top-tier fighting forces, according to a Sunday report.

But this demotion of the army was a feature and not a bug of post-Cold War Britain that made even more sense post-Brexit.

You can credit pre-Brexit naval investments in large carriers that made the Royal Navy's surface fleet little more than a pool of escorts for a carrier task force for finishing off the big-war British Army.

Until Russia called that policy into question in 2022. I think the British Army will be revived.

Britain will change course to revive the quality of its army if not its quantity very much. The Brexit transition will end and free Britain from the anchor that held it back. And British trade relations with the continent will revive under new terms as the EU finally tires of punishing a NATO state much needed to help Europe protect itself from Russia as America pivots to Asia.

Britain will muddle through and be fine, I dare say.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Most Obvious Lesson Taiwan Has Not Translated

Taiwan wants to learn from Ukraine's successes against Russia's invasion force. Taiwan is learning valuable things. But Taiwan is ignoring the biggest lesson: their enemy will keep coming.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an opportunity for Taiwan to learn how to defeat China if its ground forces storm Taiwan:

Taiwan was impressed with how Ukraine defeated the Russian 2022 invasion, but Taiwanese leaders are still trying to determine how best to translate the Ukrainian experience into something Taiwan can use. The missing element appears to be the military training Ukrainians underwent between 2015 and 2021. This was in reaction to the Russian seizure of Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine in 2014. The unexpected rapid mobilization of Ukrainian troops persuaded the Russians to agree to a ceasefire that lasted until 2022. During the ceasefire Ukraine reformed, retained and rearmed its military. That’s what Taiwan is now doing. The first step was to increase conscript service from three to twelve months. Next came changes to the training conscripts receive. The new training program concentrates on teaching Taiwanese to fight effectively using proven training techniques used by Western nations and now by Ukraine as well. 

I've long worried about how well trained the Taiwanese ground forces are trained, as I noted in this post.

Taiwan can indeed learn a lot about tactics, equipment, and training. I'd really like them to (tip to Instapundit) invest in Starlink communications, for example.

And the U.S. says it has learned some lessons to apply to Taiwan.

But the biggest lesson for Taiwan and America regarding the defense of Taiwan is not mentioned. A year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and despite Ukrainian victories, Russia still holds huge chunks of important Ukrainian territory. And despite massive human and material losses, Russia is renewing its offensive.

That is the lesson.

I believe that if China's invasion force isn't ejected from Taiwan that this in effect would be a Chinese victory:

"Stalemate" between U.S. and Chinese ground forces after three weeks means 30+ PLA battalions remain on the island. That's a problem, as I argued in Military Review. If the U.S. really thinks it won the war because the PLA was stalemated short of conquering Taiwan, we are seriously mistaken. Ending the war with stalemate on Taiwan means China has won the war.

And as I explored later when the report came out that I could examine directly, the definition in the wargames I was commenting about defined a "stalemate" in a way that actually represents a Chinese victory:

In any of the stalemate scenarios, I believe the result should be coded as a Chinese victory. Given the high American casualties predicted, raise your hand if you think America will support a fight to drive the nuclear-armed Chinese into the sea--even in the "stalemate, trending against China" measure--when Taiwan continuing as a political entity in the short run can be defined as victory. Or at least defined as not a defeat.

I think China holding a significant bridgehead regardless of the trend signifies a Chinese victory. Eventually a ceasefire will take hold, whether or not it is official. And then China will build up its forces on Taiwan for months or years until it can resume the invasion. Or until the threat of a resumed overland invasion undermines Taiwan's resolve to resist their giant neighbor.

We must, I argued, prepare Taiwan's military to drive the PLA into the sea; and if necessary plan to use heavy American ground forces to help with the mission. Never agree to a ceasefire with China still on Taiwan.

Consider that Russia's 2022 invasion was Russia's third invasion of Ukraine. Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and captured territory in the Donbas in 2014 and 2015 which were used to build staging areas for the 2022 invasion. You might say that Russia's mobilization and preparation for a second Big Push in early 2023 is the fourth invasion.

That's what China would do even if it took years to carry out. And Taiwan does not have the depth of Ukraine to absorb territorial losses without losing the ability to effectively resist. That's the most important lesson that Taiwan can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Still, despite this massive failure to identify the crucial lesson of ejecting the Chinese invaders, one major lesson absorbed that is good for Taiwanese morale is the real-world example that resistance is not futile.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.