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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Flying Standby on Air America

The Air Force will always have more important things to do than airlift Army light tanks. So don't build those Future Burned-Out Hulks.


Wasting Army appropriations on a niche airmobile (or, God help us, air droppable) capability that will hardly ever be relevant is a mistake that will get soldiers killed and threaten the ability to achieve the mission.

I've mentioned this before, but let me return to this neat innovation that for the Army is a problem

The U.S. Air Force conducted a test of its Rapid Dragon palletized munition system concept Nov. 3, which could one day pave the way to launching a barrage of cruise missiles out of the back of mobility aircraft.

Note to Army:

Let's see a show of Army hands for those who believe the Air Force will free up the cargo planes and fighter escorts and all the other supporting assets needed to move the light armor in numbers that could make a difference?

And now the Air Force has new missions for its transport planes.

I'm not saying that isn't an important mission. But it isn't an Army mission.

So stop the Army madness:

Light tanks are stupid. New light tanks are a waste of money. Just call them FBOHs (which I suggest be pronounced "Fu-bohs" to be similar to FUBAR).

Lord, people, has nobody noticed we have a lot of surplus heavily armed, well protected, tracked Abrams tanks not in the force structure that could be given to infantry brigades?*

The Army can call light tanks Mobile Protected Firepower to disguise but not change the reality that they have substandard firepower, aren't protected against anything but the smallest weapon, and aren't mobile strategically in the real world and tactically won't move one bit after blowing up. Really, the MPF is the Holy Roman Empire of armored fighting vehicles.

For the Air Force, there are always more important things than granting Army wishes. Building the Future Burned-Out Hulk won't--and shouldn't--pique the Air Force's interest in moving the vehicle in significant numbers.

Still, I count the MPF as progress from the Future Combat Systems (FCS) days when the Army thought that if it plowed enough money into a project it could get a well-protected and highly lethal armored vehicle weighing no more than 19 tons so it could be airlifted anywhere. The wonder tank, I said in Military Review, could not be built.

*That link goes to my Army magazine article on the topic.

Monday, November 29, 2021

China Dream. Global Nightmare

China is either expanding their ambitions or being more open about their ambitions.

 

China is thinking big, based on the recent Pentagon report on Chinese military power:

Beijing’s goals of preeminence, to be achieved fully between 2035 and 2049, [is summarized] as follows: “complet[ing] its development and attain[ing] national rejuvenation, realizing an international status that Xi describes as a ‘global leader in terms of comprehensive national strength and international influence.’ A renewed PRC will have attained—among the Party’s many goals—its objectives to field a ‘world-class’ military and assume a leading position within an international order revised in line with Beijing’s overall foreign policy goal to establish what it refers to as a ‘community of common destiny (人类命运共同体)’….”

In so arguing, the 2021 CMPR moves well beyond earlier editions, which typically suggested that Beijing aimed for regional preponderance at most. Indeed, such has previously been the conventional wisdom among many scholars and analysts. It is even quite possible that many PRC officials in power two decades ago did not regard future global preponderance as either realistic or worth taking risks to pursue. Nevertheless, under Xi today, the PRC is far more powerful and pushy than many ever anticipated. It now has additional ambitious goals for the next three decades—the grandest and most strategic guiding policies of any great power today. 

Or maybe China is just more open about what they ultimately want.

Of course, other power are reacting to the Chinese rise. America, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, India, and other smaller powers don't wish to be bullied into vassal status or lose territory to China's newest grandiose territorial claim-of-the-year.  These potential victims increase their power and reach out to each other for allies.

Even the bizarrely hostile-to-NATO Russia might have been hit with the clue bat enough to stop appeasing China to join the coalition that is forming.

As long as China can't separate and single out targets to break the chain of cooperation and alliance, China has severe limits to what it can cheaply achieve.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Weekend Data Dump

Isn't going to--or even just watching--the Olympics in China too much like accepting the 1936 Berlin Olympics? Aggressive, genocidal, careless with germs, and brutal to its own people. Why celebrate this?

Dread nought but the costs and delays.

Making friends and influencing pilot skill.

I think we all need this:

 

I suppose the Waukesha killer is a "mostly safe" driver. Five Six dead and 40 injured is probably just "local news," anyway. I don't know if that racist man murdered 6 people for racist reasons. But he definitely murdered six people. Don't give me any of that "Some guy did some things" crap. We'll see what the trial says, though. Perhaps there is some magical bit of fact that changes how this looks.

Re-envisioning American security efforts in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, given Turkey's wobbly status as a NATO ally? One, I don't think the Russian naval presence is much of a threat to NATO. And two, we are already working on our Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

A shiny F-22 to test ... something.

Well of course you need to talk to bad people as part of diplomacy. The problem in the West is that the Cult of the Signing Ceremony all too easily moves from talking to concessions to bad people.

A trip string on the way to being a tripwire to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? But if this doesn't deter China, make sure we can drive them into the sea.

Perhaps NASA decided on an actual space mission because it figured women and minorities would be hardest hit: "[Earth's] planetary defense will take a big step, conducting its first experiment to determine how such a deflection might play out in reality thanks to NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test, or DART, which launches later this month." Tip to Instapundit.

A Global Britain focus doesn't mean Britain is abandoning Europe: "The British government announced new defense collaborations with Poland and the Ukraine on the back of a visit to the two Eastern European nations by Defence Secretary Ben Wallace this week."

One thing that liberals don't seem to get about police and security is that they protect people from becoming criminals. When I managed a fairly sketchy video arcade (the only time I had a gun pointed at me or a knife brandished in my face was there), a lot of my customers were people who would steal from the arcade or damage property if they had a chance. But if they didn't have that chance, they'd be customers. A lot of people live on the border between legality and illegality. Liberal policies ease the path for a lot of people to enter the criminal justice system. The liberals advocating those policies can feel good about how "compassionate" they are, however. So full speed ahead!

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Three months after the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan, the top commander of U.S. special operations forces said he does not see the new Taliban government as a partner against the terrorist threat from ISIS, but rather he urged the United States to continue working with other Afghans and foreign governments there." Who knew?

I'm disappointed that Jonah Goldberg quit as a contributor at Fox News over Tucker Carlson. Sure, his time on air has been infrequent given his politics and FNC's audience. But unless he refuses to go on any media, this seems pro-Democrat. I've respected Jonah despite his anti-Trump stance. Believe me, I get that. I believe Jonah has tried to be a conservative apart from Trumpism. I have some sympathy for that, too. But this seems to move him too far into de facto Democratic Party territory for me to be comfortable with him. And that saddens me. I can't bring myself to despise him, or anything. But I will pay less attention to him going forward. His big loss, I know. 

It's like we've gone back in time to when roving tribes of barbarians sacked towns: "A mob of robbers targeted stores in Hayward and San Jose, Calif., on Sunday, marking the third consecutive day of smash-and-grab looting in the San Francisco Bay Area." I say they should enjoy what they voted for. Ef them.

I'm tired of being supposed to care more about leftist-run cities than their residents care about themselves. Media stories about racist "urban retail deserts" in 3, 2, 1 ... Tip to Instapundit.

Science is getting more politicized and gets less respect. Has science declined and so earned that reduced respect? It's totally out of my lane, but there might be a relation. Tip to Instapundit.

Leftistss are saying that if Rittenhouse had been Black the jury would have convicted him. Au contraire. Leftists would have said that Black Rittenhouse was the Black face of white racism. As they do for everyone who doesn't follow their leftism.

Corruption destroys everything: Iraq edition.

Helping Iraq defeat Iran: "Before the United States withdraws the remaining 2,500 military advisers in Iraq, it is worth remembering that the country is not lost to Iran yet and that, with global support, Baghdad can beat Iran and disband its militias. All Washington needs to do is have some faith in anti-Islamic Iran Iraqis, and some patience in maintaining the currently costless U.S. policy on Iran in Iraq." I agree.

Formally ending the Korean War is meaningless when it comes to ending the North Korean threat. 

Returning to port to reload takes a Navy sub out for quite some time: "The SSN(X) nuclear attack boat will be more focused on the war in blue water than the multi-mission Virginia-class submarines, which are designed to operate closer to shore for missions like signals intelligence and special operation missions." Maintenance, too. So there you go.

Testing for the AIM-260.

Friggin' lasers on friggin' destroyers: "The United States Navy has decided to install a laser weapon system [called ODIN] on some of its guided missile destroyers (DDGs)." ODIN will replace the point defense weapon. The purpose is anti-drone. Despite the math, the author uses it to conclude the shocking fact that a ship with point defense anti-missile weapons will survive more than a ship without such a system. Wow. But until ships have the electrical power the lasers are just potential for anti-missile work.

Turkey helps Ukraine. It should not be a shock that Turkey is doing this. Turkey has a long history of war against Russia. Turkey does not want Russia to control more of the Black Sea coast.

Before I experienced the last five years, I too would have considered the possibility that Watergate was an anti-Nixon coup built on lies an allegation too far-fetched to consider

Does it take a village to raise a lone wolf jihadi? Just asking.

This does not surprise me: "For a long time, Democrats have boasted that immigration (legal and otherwise) would make them the 'natural majority party' in short order. Well, looking at the results from the 2020 and 2021 elections, there’s a lot of evidence to the contrary." I never worried about the Democratic claim. America is a land of opportunity. Democrats may want to import a loyal and dependent serf class. But when immigrants don't accept their assigned place and instead prosper, Republican policies look better. Tip to Instapundit.

If Biden thinks tapping the strategic petroleum reserve will help lower gasoline prices, why isn't ending his restrictions on drilling and pipelines a better approach? I hope there isn't a "strategic" reason for needing that oil any time soon. Tip to PJ Media.

Last week I mentioned that China blocked a Filipino resupply effort for one of China's outposts. The Philippines made it through this time: "Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said the two wooden boats carrying navy personnel reached government forces stationed on a military ship at Second Thomas Shoal without any major incident." China allowed the mission on the condition there was no military escort. Which infringes on Filipino sovereignty.

Oh, please! "As Iran and world powers prepare to resume negotiations next week on reviving a nuclear deal, the U.S. and its allies are already debating a list of 'Plan B' options if the negotiations collapse, Western diplomats, former U.S. officials and experts say." As if! Plan B will be to offer Iran more and demand less.

The Steele "dossier" fraud strategy is apparently Democratic Party standard operating procedure

The Navy continues to regularly sail through the Taiwan Strait in defiance of Chinese claims to control the waters. I'm pleasantly surprised the Biden administration is doing this.

Remember when the left was having wet dreams about the superior German Xi Jinping Flu strategy? "The CDC elevated its travel recommendation to "Level Four: Very High" for [Germany and Denmark], telling Americans they should avoid travel there, while the State Department issued parallel "Do Not Travel" advisories for both countries." As I said from the beginning of "two weeks to bend the curve", let's wait until this is over before comparing national responses. And use uniform definitions, of course.

Paranoidmuch? "A retired Russian admiral has alleged that the 2000 Kursk submarine disaster was caused by a collision with a NATO sub, an unproven claim that defies the official conclusion that the country’s worst post-Soviet naval catastrophe was triggered by a faulty torpedo." #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

How could it not have that effect? "Don't drive drunk. That's simple and obvious advice. And it appears ridesharing services are making it easier for people to take it." Tip to Instapundit.

China is just a wealthier thug regime now:

 

Health professionals have either gotten dumber in the last 20 years or so, or they've gotten incredibly powerful. What am I to make of the "assigned [gender] at birth" nonsense I hear these days? Back in the day, doctors looked at newborns and based on visual evidence, identified the child's gender. Either modern doctors are too stupid to grasp the obvious or they are way too powerful. Sigh. Peak stupid gets pushed higher every week, it seems.

Seriously, I just don't get that whole sophisticated European pro-science nuance thing: "The World Health Organization said that coronavirus cases jumped by 11% in Europe in the last week, the only region in the world where COVID-19 has continued to increase since mid-October."

America's information war line on Afghanistan should emphasize the deadly contrast from how good it was when we backed the government; and how big of a mistake it was for our allies to give up and let the Taliban win so easily. Hold out the hope that if our once-allies get their act together we may circle back. Until then, let our enemies pay for saving Afghanistan.

Masks will set you free: "Australian authorities are removing COVID-19-positive patients and residents in the Northern Territory to a quarantine camp in Howard Springs, after nine cases were identified in the community of Binjari, according to a local official." Tip to Instapundit.

Colluding with foreigners to influence American elections: "Politico recently reported that the Sixteen Thirty Fund, the leading dark money machine of the Left, had pumped $410 million into Dem 2020 efforts to defeat Trump and Republicans." Tip to Instapundit.

Huh: "China's Communist Party is intensifying covert influence operations in the United States that include funding Washington think tanks and coercing Chinese Americans, according to a congressional commission report." From Instapundit.

Given other problems with our Navy, the rust on our ships is a visible sign of the service rot and not a Covid-related transitory problem. This is a problem that predates Biden, of course. But is any of the so-called infrastructure spending spree America is starting going to our shipyard problems? Senior leadership is another problem.

China's growing carrier force. If the Chinese send them into a sea control battle against a capable enemy, I almost feel sorry for China. But I think the purpose of the PLAN carriers is peacetime power projection against weaker powers. Remember the difference between sea control and power projection.

American-Israeli divisions over Iran are in the open. Well, sure. Israel wants to stop Iran's nuclear weapon program. America wants to stop talking about Iran's nuclear program. Maybe if Biden doubles down on Trump's sanctions and grey area warfare plans against Iran's regime, it will kick the can down the road in the hopes that Iranians will overthrow their mullah regime.

When did Trump become the ruler of Germany? "Is there a simple explanation for this low vaccine uptake in parts of Germany? Given that Germany and Austria are typically seen as stable democracies, mistrust when it comes to the vaccine roll-out is hard to square."

Good! "Reports indicate that semiconductor giant Samsung has picked Taylor, Texas as the site for a $17 billion wafer fabrication plant." Tip to Instapundit.

I sometimes think that America should sell small plots of land to allies who are in danger of being conquered by an enemy in order to give people from that territory a place to rest their legal sovereign claims to power on. Or is that what their foreign embassies in friendly countries provide?

I'm thinking about replacing Netflix with Amazon Prime. Netflix isn't as good lately and I'd at least get faster shipping with the Amazon video library. But inertia is powerful. But I'm just a Netflix price increase away from flipping.

Without comment:


The Air Force is willing to attack enemy surface ships: "The Air Force is preparing for a new era in maritime operations, taking on a larger role in surface warfare as the U.S. casts a wary eye at China and Russia." Well, good.

Iraqi pro-Iran proxy militias claim they can drive America out of Iraq. They wrongly claim they drove America out in 2011. At the time, Obama and Biden claimed victory.

The Taliban government is not trying to defeat the Islamic State: "The Taliban has expanded its shadowy war against the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan, deploying hundreds more fighters to this eastern province in an increasingly violent fight and critical test of the group’s counterterrorism abilities after the U.S. troop withdrawal." The Taliban just want to compel the Islamic State to conform to Taliban demands for who the Islamic State fights.

It is hard to argue against the idea that America should bring home a lot of manufacturing. Tip to Instapundit. Or even just to North America. If there is war with China and we impose a blockade of China, it would be rough if we hurt ourselves as much as we hurt China. 

Maybe increase the number of Russian troops dying in the Donbas? "A top diplomat for a NATO member country says the North Atlantic military alliance plans to discuss ways of deterring Russia during a summit next week." It really isn't a mystery.

Sweden updates their airborne early warning

Well, it's better than Chinese troops: "Australia announced Thursday it is sending police, troops and diplomats to the Solomon Islands to help after anti-government demonstrators defied lockdown orders and took to the streets for a second day in violent protests." Who knows where the Chinese will go next.

Unclear on the concept: "The 'alarming' increase in military operations in Ethiopia could undermine the 'nascent progress' toward getting all parties to Ethiopia's conflict into negotiations on a ceasefire, Jeffrey Feltman, US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa said on Tuesday." Oddly, the parties are trying win rather than stop fighting. Which requires military operations. Our confusion on this may explain a lot.

More on the Filipino resupply mission at Second Thomas ShoalChina demands the Philippines remove the grounded and very rusted out LST serving as a base. The Philippines refuses. I think the Philippines should do that--after building a permanent structure there.

It's so odd that Iran is so close to a nuclear weapon even after the Iranians denied ever having a nuclear weapons program to get the 2015 deal: "'They’re very close this time,' [General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command] says. 'I think they like the idea of being able to breakout.'" Why, it's almost as if the deal was a shield to protect Iran's drive for nukes. I do worry that Biden will trade Iraq for (another) toothless Iran nuclear deal.

I commend the Biden administration for this Inaugural Summit for Democracy! "The Biden administration invited Taiwan to participate in a meeting of democracies, further bucking Beijing’s long-pressed campaign to isolate the island diplomatically and testing a recent lessening of U.S.-China tensions." It's like someone in the administration reads TDR. If so, take the next step and have Taiwan be the permanent host for the League of Democracies

Biden tells us that the people who have the minuscule number of electric vehicles don't have to worry about high gas prices. To be fair, the upper middle class people who could afford those cars--often purchased with hefty government subsidies--weren't worried about gas prices before they had the electric cars. Let's go, Brandon!

Remember that deception is SOP for jihadi killers.

No! Way! "The son of the President was involved in a successful effort to handover a strategically vital natural resource to the Chinese that would guarantee their dominance in one of the most important new industries of the 'Green economy." But since it was a Biden and not a Trump son, the "news" media has memory holed it. Yet the Biden family will get richer on "blood Cobolt" through the president's promotion of electric cars. Tip to Instapundit.

I think Minor-Attracted People should be Bullet-Attracting People. After trial and conviction in a death penalty state, of course. MAPs take dirt naps.

My Thanksgiving tradition continues. I wanted to add the WKRP episode this year, too, but while it was shown on one of my streaming services that was apparently only for decorative purposes. And for God's sake, stop using Thanksgiving that Europeans were uniquely evil.

Say, why don't the Pilgrims get any sympathy from the American left for being refugees fleeing persecution?

Good: " Five members of the U.S. House of Representatives are expected to arrive in Taiwan on Friday for a short trip focused on meetings with the island's defence ministry, Taiwan's official Central News Agency reported on Thursday." Tip to Instapundit.

I suspect leftists will care about looting plundering pillaging when the gangs of crooks start hijacking Amazon and other delivery trucks.

From the largest aerial evacuation mission ever to the largest aerial infiltration mission ever? Oh well. The Biden administration didn't try to get our allies and friends out. But figured they could turn a political profit on volume. 

I don't know why the Waukesha parade mass murderer had his bail set at $5 million. I mean, if his long record of crimes and violence justified just $1,000 before he killed six, what are the odds he'll kill more at this point?

Is Russia preparing to invade Ukraine? Could quick shipments of American weapons deter Russia? The Ukrainian troops claim confidence. Surely, Ukraine has improved more than Russia since 2014.

Mexico's drug cartel problem sure seems like an insurgency or even a separatist movement now. Of course, it has seemed like it has moved that way for a long time. But the acute crisis for America I've long expected hasn't happened yet.

Nothing to see. Move along. Tip to Instapundit.

Well that's one way to work around the port bottleneck: "Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly spent over $500 on cookware at Parisian shop E. Dehillerin amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty in the United States." But not everybody can fly to Europe on the taxpayers' dime. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The 21st century white racist movement is amazingly nuanced. According to Democrats, white racists embrace Black conservatives. And also according to Democrats, white racists will seek out and kill white people who side with Black leftists. 

The story of laser-guided shells.

CRT isn't being taught in our schools--but it is. Like I've said, the left just lies. While CRT technically isn't being taught in K-12 schools because CRT is a legal theory; the conclusions of CRT--that white people are perpetually awful and minorities are perpetual victims--are being taught to children. But what really gets me is the moron intellectual referring to the "Asian panethnic community." As if deplorable people think "Asian" is a description of one monolithic bloc of people rather than a group of different people in Asia. So "panethnic" has to be added to clarify that. "European panethnic community," anyone?

Putin has more territorial ambitions. Although honestly, Putin has the sidekick role in this reboot of the historical drama.

That which was once racist is now science: Biden orders ban on travel from Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. Gosh, nuance is hard. Via Instapundit.


Sure, Putin is being an aggressive jerk: "Vladimir Putin is an expert at bluffing and keeping the West on its toes, pushing relations to the edge before pivoting without warning." But he's no expert. Except at effing up royally. Why the usually paranoid Russians aren't wondering if Putin is the second person sent by foreign enemies to undermine Russia is beyond me. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

This answers my previous question and concern: "he U.S. Navy is helping the United Kingdom recover its F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter that crashed in the Mediterranean last week."

I do hope we have some of that vaunted Smart Diplomacy® at work here.

Welp, here we go again:



You never can tell what will trigger a revolution: "Protests in Iran turned violent as police cracked down on thousands of people who turned out to demand the revival of a river the government diverted to factories." One day the mullah masters will pay for their crimes.

The Danes clearly believe that the only good pirate is a dead pirate.

I literally laughed out loud:


 

Congratulations to Coach Harbaugh who finally reversed bad trends. I was perplexed that he didn't build this team well before now. But despite some well deserved criticism in the past, by God he earned a lot of credit this year. My children were there! Although honestly, I think Michigan State fans should be on suicide watch for the next week. Before the game that ended our long national nightmare with a 42-27 Michigan win over Ohio State:


Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida: "'I will consider all options, including possessing so-called enemy base strike capability, to pursue strengthening of defense power that is necessary,' Kishida said in an address to hundreds of Ground Self-Defense Force members in olive-colored helmets and uniforms."

What fresh Hell is this?

Huh. San Francisco doesn't protect small merchants from looters but will protect the providers of fine luxury merchandise from looters. Party of the blue collar, my ass. Tip to PJ Media.

I used to always drop money in Salvation Army kettles. This is no big money, of course. But I did. Especially since liberals suddenly hated the charity in recent years. Well, I'm out now, too. Via Instapundit.

"Climate change" seems like the new "God wills it": "Reducing available fuel seems and obvious strategy for fire risk management. But according to the [Australian] CSIRO, the real culprit is climate change." Now go and emit no more. Via Instapundit.

The British are going to move to brigade combat teams. Well that explains the many hits from Britain for a while to this post that noted my Military Review defense of divisions. But Britain doesn't have the number of brigades to justify reliance on the division. The emphasis is on supporting allied capabilities. I wrote about that Thin Red Line.

This is certainly needed: "This Month, Marine Corps and Navy fighter jets and support aircraft assigned to the Indo-Pacific area of operations conducted a series of simulated strikes against naval targets. Targeting and striking enemy warships, with their potent anti-aircraft defenses, is a wholly different experience than dropping bombs on terrorists and insurgents in an air superiority environment." The Marines did refocus on sea control, recall.

Huh: "Collapse of ancient Liangzhu culture caused by climate change[.]" Who knew the climate could change without human intervention. Look, mankind in the modern era affects the climate. But I have no idea if mankind's effect is decisive. Via Instapundit.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

And Now For Something Completely Different

Was it over when the Germans memed Pearl Harbor?















 

 

 


 

 


Friday, November 26, 2021

An Argument From An Alternate Timeline

The idea that America is less prepared to face China because of two decades of counterinsurgency warfare is completely wrong. 

 

I occasionally read asides in articles on America's preparations for an era of great power competition that say that fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan harmed America's ability to face China and Russia now.

One, that ignores the fact that we needed to win the wars were in and not lose them because we valued preparing for a future potential war.

Two, it ignores the initial invasion of Iraq in 2003 which absolutely highlighted the ability of the American military to slash through an enemy at high speed while inflicting disproportional casualties.

But most importantly, the charge assumes that America would have prepared for fighting China absent the war on terror campaigns after 9/11. That is a highly unlikely assumption.

On the eve of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, America was a decade into the post-Cold War "peace dividend" that gave America undermanned and under-resourced units to begin the war on Islamist terror. 

Two decades of warfare gave us new weapons and equipment plus combat-experienced officers and NCOs. 

It also unbalanced our military, as our Air Force and ground forces lost conventional warfare capabilities and practice while focused on fighting insurgents and terrorists. 

But rebalancing toward training for conventional warfare has been going on for a decade now, really, as the Afghanistan surges receded. Although don't forget that President Obama basically declared a "Ten-Year Rule" at the beginning of his presidency to hobble that shift.

Once rebalanced, with war reserve stocks restored and logistics improved, America will have a much better military than if the "peace dividend" had gone on two more decades. 

But the question of whether America ended Obama's ten-year rule in time is still open.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

France Steps Up

I've expressed my confidence that local NATO states can handle whatever the Russians do in the Mediterranean Sea. The French bolster my confidence.

The French hosted multinational naval exercises:

Polaris 21, which comes from the French name for the exercise — Préparation Opérationnelle en Lutte Aéromaritime, Résilience, Innovation et Supériorité — also includes a segment on the Atlantic coast of mainland France. The French Army and Navy and partner nations Greece, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and a NATO element are participating in the drills.

I suppose if you rotate the orientation 90 degrees right, Sardinia and Corsica provide an approximation of Crete and Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, with the Atlantic vessels playing the role of ships in the Black Sea. 

http://www.emersonkent.com/images/eastern_mediterranean_countries.jpg

 

Red forces, like say Russian for example, would be headed south or perhaps coming from the east in Syria, while blue forces come in from the west.

French forces in France could simulate Russians from Syria or Turks from the north. Spain could stand in for Greece and Turkey. Sicily would just be NATO forces on Sicily.

Turkey isn't involved in the French exercises. Perhaps because of recent French-Turkish naval tangling. So I suppose if there needs to be a Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean Sea should Turkey go rogue outside of NATO, red forces could be the Turks.

Although I'm hoping recent Russian-Turkish tensions are reminding Turks of their long history of warfare against Russia and why NATO is still a good idea for them.

Still, having a Plan B is good just in case Erdogan gets a relapse of stupid.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Rule of Law Can Produce Justice and Democracy in the Arab World

America's war on terror is in many ways an effort to avoid collateral damage here and in other parts of the world because of an Islamic civil war. Fleeing Afghanistan will not end the civil war. It just risks more collateral damage in the West. The main fight is still helping the good guys beat the jihadis in the civil war.

Yes:

In the Islamic world, the year 1979 was a landmark. In Iran, a popular revolution overthrew the monarchy; the revolution later evolved into a ruthless Islamic theocracy. In Afghanistan, a general Islamist uprising against a socialist government, which had overthrown that country’s monarchy the previous year, led to an effective takeover of the country by the Soviet Union. Neighboring Pakistan moved decisively toward Islamist governance. In Saudi Arabia, Islamist revolutionaries occupied the Great Mosque of Mecca, the holiest place in the Islamic world. The Saudi state savagely put down the revolt but then, in partnership with Pakistan, strengthened its own commitment to Islamic governance, in order to co-opt the radicals in its midst and confront Iran’s revolutionary claim to be the true leader of the Islamic world.

All three of these explosions originated inside Muslim-majority societies that had struggled to adapt to the modern world. In Iran, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia, Islamist revolutionaries argued that they were revolting against a secular (“un-Islamic or godless”) tyranny bent on modernizing the country from the top down, causing great hardship and disturbing traditional ways of life. Always, the argument included the accusation that the tyrants were corrupted by foreign ways and foreign influence. Americans, Russians, and other “Westerners” were the usual villains. The Islamists promised to fight corruption, restore religious harmony, and preserve law and order based on Islamic jurisprudence. In the revolutions that had upended the Atlantic world in early times, liberty was a touchstone. In the Muslim world, in contrast, the more common appeal was to justice. 

I have believed that democracy with rule of law can end the appeal and generation of jihadi Islamism. Does the desire for justice above all else mean I'm wrong? 

The Arab Spring of a decade ago almost totally failed. But it at least showed a lot of Arab people wanted to try democracy instead of the usual choices of autocracy or religious dictatorships for their governments.

And I did recognize that rule of law was important for democracy to mean more than a one-time vote for dictatorship by the majority. Whether I used the term "constitution," "accountability," or "rule of law" that I usually use, it's all the same thing.

Justice is best guaranteed by rule of law. Which is also a component of functioning democracy. So it is possible for the West to support rule of law in the formal system of even an imperfect democracy. After all, Iran has the forms of democracy with votes and a parliament--just not rule of law. Rule of law is more important in the long run than voting. So don't give up on democracy in the Arab world:

This depressing state of affairs demands that the United States and other actors reconsider their support of Arab dictators and replace their generous supplies of bullets with a renewed commitment to ballots. Ultimately, that is the only way long-term stability, security, and possibly democracy can be achieved.

Yes, eventually democracy can be achieved. Yet don't mistake voting alone--which can be achieved quickly--as being democracy. Rule of law is key. And that takes time. And if Arabs accept rule of law more readily as a pursuit of justice, that's fine. This is the way to end the Islamic civil war.

There are people in Saudi Arabia who reject Islamist violence and who want to change Islam and modernize it. They deserve our support as a path to rule of law, justice, and democracy.

Again, the September 11, 2001 attack was essentially collateral damage in that civil war. I've long recognized that this is the nature of the struggle and that Arabs have to win this civil war by defeating the murderous nutballs in favor of those willing to live and let live.

I wonder if the threat of non-Arab Moslem powers encircling the Middle East will push the good guys to do a better job of defeating the Islamists who help weaken the Arab states.

The Long War goes on. And it is more than just killing jihadis. America and the West will be potential collateral damage in the Islamic civil war whether we fight to keep that from happening or don't out of a misguided notion that if we don't make eye contact the jihadi nutballs will leave us alone.

As an aside, while I agree that America didn't cause or deserve 9/11, I strongly disagree with the author's negative take on the Iraq War. If rule of law justice--and perhaps even democracy--emerges in the Arab world, we may eventually speak of George the Liberator.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Ideally, Taiwan Can Drive Those Who Survive the Gauntlet into the Sea

It is good to see that analysts are accepting that ejecting a Chinese invasion force is necessary to defend Taiwan.


Excellent:

America, Taiwan and any other partners willing to enter the fray would need to concentrate on stopping the invasion, putting every available hindrance in the way of China’s armada and aircraft. Think sea mines and anti-ship and anti-air missiles launched from various platforms on land, at sea and in the air. The defenders would also need to eliminate or eject any Chinese forces that managed to land. [emphasis added]

The public recognition of the need to eliminate the PLA bridgeheads (and air heads) is a new thing, as a Forbes article about a U.S. Army role to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan highlighted

As Brian J. Dunn observed in a seminal assessment for Military Review last year, "To defeat Taiwan and avoid war with America, all China needs to do is get ashore in force and impose a cease-fire prior to significant American intervention." 

The link in the quote goes to my Military Review article where I explored that issue. I go into it a bit more in this post. Heck, even the idea that China can make it ashore in force was mocked not that long ago as a "million-man swim." That is an idea I've long disputed.

But I take issue with part of this:

But meeting this standard of defense will be a tall order. To be able to effectively defend Taiwan — and by extension its other Asian allies — the US will have to drastically reduce its military commitments in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. There simply isn’t enough military capacity to defend Taiwan and other allies in Asia from China while simultaneously fielding a major presence elsewhere. This will leave a vacuum in these regions, which are important but pale in significance compared with Asia.

America's military commitments to Africa are minimal. America's European presence is a shadow of its Cold War level. And America's Middle East commitment is far from the peaks of fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan.

While I do believe the Army has a ground role for Asia and the Pacific, which I addressed in Military Review several years ago, we can afford to commit 15 combat brigades to Europe and the Middle East to support allies and watch threats, I think. America might need to move mobilized National Guard brigades to Europe and the Middle East to allow at least some of the active Army forces to shift to China. But our logistics right now are no doubt too atrophied to sustain even 15 brigades in INDOPACOM in high intensity warfare outside of South Korea.

And why would America abandon the Middle East when anything America has in the Middle East could shift to face China pretty easily by moving across the Indian Ocean. Indeed, our Middle Eastern forces would need to sweep up Chinese military assets on the ground and at sea in the region before shifting to the Pacific.

Although the author's point is certainly strongest for deploying the Navy.

Further, we simply don't have bases to operate all of the aircraft that we have for a campaign against China. So having some in Europe or the Middle East doesn't seem like much of a problem to me. We'll have aircraft in the continental United States to reinforce and replace losses without abandoning the rest of the world.

But because American military commitments outside of Asia really are minimal, this is spot on:

In a war over Taiwan, the UK could help address Chinese forces in other theaters, perhaps alongside India’s efforts. But together with other western European countries, it would need to concentrate on ensuring that Russia and Iran did not see an opportunity to exploit America’s focus on Taiwan.

Indeed, Germany's recent military initiatives in Asia frustrate me beyond belief, as I expressed in this data dump:

What is the fucking point of the German outreach?! "Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi on Friday said Japan will step up military cooperation with Germany in the Indo-Pacific region as he welcomed a port call by the first German warship to visit Japan in about 20 years." Maybe the Germans could focus on controlling the Goddamn Baltic Sea so the Russians can't fight for control. Maybe that's more important? The Germans don't do enough on defense and what little they do is wasted on frivolous gestures.

The bottom line is that America must be able to focus on the Pacific while leveraging regional allied support to deter or fight China; while counting on allies to hold the line in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa with minimal or at least not major American support.

So I salute that author for making those points. And I concede that the question for how much American military power outside of Asia is necessary is up for debate. But abandoning the rest of the world to focus on China seems premature.

Taiwan needs to do more and America can help to keep China from ending a war with troops on Taiwan. But unlike Taiwan which has the one objective of national survival, America has multiple objectives around the world to defend.

Monday, November 22, 2021

The Mystery of Defeating Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Why doesn't the West make Russia's tolerable "forever war" against Ukraine an actual quagmire that hurts Russia enough until it leaves?


 What will end Russia's forever war in Ukraine? 

Seven years after Russia’s occupation of eastern Ukraine, the West’s hopes for peace are ostentatiously ignored by Vladimir Putin.

The article never answers the question in the title. From the beginning I've said the way to end Russia's aggression is to help Ukraine resist and send body bags back to Russian mothers:

[Help] Ukraine kill Russian soldiers at such a level that Putin can't hide the fact.

Heck, Putin isn't shy about increasing the body count of Russian foes. Why should we be more skittish?

Indeed, maybe Ukraine should be holding moving burial ceremonies for dead Russians in their custody and publishing them online.

Perhaps it has seemed crude for me to be arguing for an effort to kill Russian soldiers all along, but that's the reality of stopping Russia. General Hodges just stated the obvious.

This is a Russian weakness because Russians will not endure the casualties their World War II reputation suggests.

The initial article says "thousands" of Russian soldiers have died in the war already. If that is true, clearly it hasn't been enough.

Until the Russians remove their head from their backsides, nothing else will work.

Indeed (back to the first article):

Putin pays a price for his aggression but calculates that the costs are outweighed by the benefits of continually bleeding Ukraine. By keeping the conflict at a low-hostility level, Russia will continue to deplete Ukraine’s limited resources.

Which reinforces my call for Ukraine to resist Russia more effectively by defeating corruption inside Ukraine. 

Russia decided to wage war against Ukraine. Let the Russians face losing that war. Is Ukraine willing to fight corruption to get that?

UPDATE: In for a penny, in for a pound?

Russian deployments are ongoing, and open-source reporting alone can only capture a fraction of the actual military moves. This makes it difficult to establish what exactly is happening. But there appear to be several moves taking place at once, and they are not necessarily related. Some seem to concern Ukraine alone, while others may pose a danger to the European Union and NATO at large.

After our Afghanistan skedaddle debacle, miscalculations could be deadly:

The result could be that an enemy believes it can push America and get away with it; while America believes it must do whatever it takes to stop that enemy in order to reestablish the deterrence of American power.

And so we will have a war. At this point the best-case scenario is that we have a war against a small power rather than against a major power.

Adjust your pucker factor accordingly.

UPDATE: This clarifying map from some Canadian troops many years ago bears repeating:


#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE: Could the Ukraine crisis be a Russian feint to go after Georgia (again)?

Russia will not want to escalate in the Black Sea littoral because it does not want to upset Turkey, whose recent unilateral actions contradict U.S. interests to Moscow’s benefit. 

That leaves Georgia as the only country in the region where the Kremlin can escalate. Of the basin’s five littoral states allied with the United States, Georgia is the only one east of the Black Sea and highly exposed to the Kremlin on its entire northern flank.

Hmm. Russia might think that NATO will forgive action against Georgia more quickly than against Ukraine.

And perhaps Russian finances, worsened by the Xi Jinping Flu, argue for a smaller target. 

UPDATE: So the story the Russians are going to stick with is that even though Ukraine is planning something diabolically evil that Russia would not--or could not--mass troops to stop Ukraine?

The Kremlin on Monday strongly rejected the U.S. claims of a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine, saying it could be a ruse intended to cover up what it described as Ukrainian leadership's aggressive intentions. 

Got it. Do the Russians even think through the implications of their lies before they blurt them out?

Sunday, November 21, 2021

Weekend Data Dump

Of course he did: "Governor Gavin Newsom has quietly signed an executive order extending California’s ‘State of Emergency’ declaration through March 31, 2022."


Given that Russia has pretty much blockaded the Ukrainian military from entering that body of water, this seems prudent: "Ukraine said on Saturday it would speed up the construction of a naval base at the port of Berdyansk to prevent what Kyiv calls a gradual attempt by Moscow to take control of the Sea of ​​Azov that flows past Russian-annexed Crimea."

Let's see, the left wants to defund the police and send social workers instead for the calls the left knows won't get violent. But in Seattle, "crime has gotten so bad that some public employees now need security to escort them to and from work." But non-police workers need escorts? What about the poor social workers? Tip to Instapundit.

Because winning wars is too easy: "[The Department of Defense] has been perverted into sock puppets that simply regurgitate the Biden Administration’s claims of an existential climate change crisis[.]" I noted my utter frustration with a Pentagon climate change strategy in the last data dump. Just Control f "climate change strategy" if you are interested.

I have a lot of sympathy for this view on fighting wars as a last resort. What I worry is that we won't do enough short of war because we are as averse to that as we are to open war. And this is revealing in more than one way, "Eisenhower believed in the limits of power. In Korea, he ended the war in a stalemate because he regarded the war as not worth the cost." But Eisenhower didn't walk away from South Korea, either. And in time the stalemate became a victory as South Korea became a modern democracy capable of building its own military.

Russia must be crapping in their pantskies: "China appears to have solved some of its key problems with building high-performance military jet engines. It’s WS-10C engine is now in mass production with factories equipped to build it operating in multiple shifts to deal with the backlog." As I noted oh so recently, "China is using Russia. Have the Chinese mastered jet engine production? If so, the Russians need to worry about the day when China no longer needs to strip post-USSR Russia for high tech parts that China can't make for itself." And yet Russia remains annoyingly aggressive in the west.

Active protection systems for armored vehicles. America is finally adopting them

That is exactly what I thought when I read about the New York Times collusion and hit piece: "I love how the NYT tries to turn getting legal advice on how not to break the law into something sinister-sounding."

Huh: "Earlier this year, Russia unveiled their forthcoming “stealth fighter,” the single-engine Su-75 Checkmate, with bold claims about its expected performance and capabilities. Now, as the fighter is being displayed on foreign soil for the first time at this week’s Dubai Air Show, formal statements from its manufacturer have called its stealth credentials into question." I was not worried about the Su-75.

This is true: "With no cash reserves and no idea how to govern, with the country’s spectacular fruit crops rotting in transport trucks lined up at closed borders, and the population struggling just to survive, Taliban rule is already tottering. That comedown gives the U.S. and its former coalition partners leverage over the group — leverage of a kind we have never enjoyed before." But rather than using Taliban weakness to back our former allies in a counterattack, I suspect the "leverage" will be used to justify a deal that bolsters the Taliban and lets them continue Allah's work of crushing the Taliban's enemies. The fact that the author boasted of mythical "intrusive inspection" provisions in the Iran nuclear deal--seriously, that description has long been known to be BS--as a defense of the approach fills me with dread.

A new drone design able to operate from forward "austere" fields and to carry 16 Hellfire missiles. Well, set some of those loose on a Russian armored formation and it could get very hairy for the tanks.

The Navy wants another stealth fighter for its huge floating targets. Yes, more expensive eggs for the small number of even more expensive nests rather than more and cheaper distributed surface firepower.

The beatings will continue until vaccine compliance improves.

Um, they had a sudden flash of insight and shame that it was money laundering with a nice frame? Tip to The Morning Briefing.

I don't like mistrusting the FBI. I'm a law and order guy. But the FBI seems to want order without any law other than their power to abuse it. My change of attitude began when Comey laid out the evidence against Hillary Clinton's off-the-books email system that violated security protocols and FOIA/records retention requirements--and then said there would be no prosecution. Because reasons. Then it kept adding up, including the recent all-hands-on-deck Mystery of the Purloined Diary dragnet. I'm sure most FBI agents are honest. But my God, the honest ones need to revolt and repair the damage the leadership has done to the bureau. And later, I see this highly relevant article. We may need to break up the FBI for parts.

Uh oh (via Instapundit): "Earlier this week, the International Space Station (ISS) was forced to maneuver out of the way of a potential collision with space junk." As I mentioned about cleaning up space junk: "I'm just going to say that if space debris is collected in space, it can certainly be stored and released as an anti-spacecraft minefield."

China's economic mobility has stalled and Xi Jinping believes more commie bell is the answer. And can I get a 'heh' from the audience: "If Xi thinks government intervention will actually reduce inequality, he might be a real Communist after all — or a Democrat."

I saw a breaking news banner on Yahoo that said "Trump ally Steve Bannon taken into custody on contempt charges." Why are no Democrats arrested for anything described as Biden allies? Or Obama allies? Or Hillary allies? Hell, they are rarely even identified as "Democrats," really. 

I'm just putting this out there as people get upset about Rittenhouse trying to defend against rioters: "The unorganized militia consists of all other able-bodied citizens of this state and all other able-bodied citizens who are residents of this state who have or shall have declared their intention to become citizens of the United States, who shall be age 17 or over and not more than age 60, and shall be subject to state military duty as provided in this act." [emphasis added] This is Michigan, of course. I bet this isn't unique.

Bullshit: "The U.S. military's stepped-up activities around Ukraine have turned into a new "red line" for Moscow that could increase the risk of a large-scale Russian invasion of the country, some military analysts are cautioning as Russian troops mass on Ukraine's border." The idea that potential targets of Russia's loud aggressive intentions can't exercise because it will "provoke" a Russian invasion of Ukraine is such bullshit that I can hardly fathom how analysts can spout that.

Interesting: "Tucked within an icy mountain lies a meticulously preserved World War I bunker. [para] Climate change means we can now see it." But wait. Doesn't it mean that the climate was also warm enough to build and man the bunker more than a century ago? Huh.

So what are the odds that the 25th Amendment has to be used to get rid of Harris? And is it racist for Democrats through their media allies to give the senile white man a pass--for now?--but go after the first woman of color to be vice president? Just asking for a friend.

Some vapid TV host: "We locked you in your homes for a year[.]" [emphasis added] The basic issue logic was absurd. But "We?" Well, siding with the government that locked us down makes sense"What would they do to me," he asked in confidential tones, "if I refuse to fly them?" "We'd probably shoot you," ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen replied. "We?" Yossarian cried in surprise. "What do you mean we? Since when are you on their side?" "If you're going to be shot, whose side do you expect me to be on?" ex-P.F.C. Wintergreen retorted. So there you go. "We."

Also, media style guide: "When the Republicans fail, it’s the Republicans’ fault. When the Democrats fail, it’s America’s fault." Buying a subscription to our main media organs should be considered a campaign contribution to Democrats, under federal law.

"Beto" O'Rourke still wants to take away so-called "assault" weapons because they "were originally designed for use on a battlefield." So were muskets. And swords. And perhaps fire-hardened pointy sticks, for that matter. Tip to Treacher

One of the problems with young people panicking over climate change is that they are too young to have seen all the wrong predictions up until now. Apparently, I've survived the end of the world many times. But I have no excuses available for those my age, give or take a decade. Via Instapundit.

If you help somebody even a lot with a particular problem you are awful if you don't solve all their problems, too. Tip to Treacher.

With supply chain disruptions, fights over Black Friday sale items are going to be lit as ef.

Space race: "A report from NASA's inspector general said the U.S. space agency will miss its target for landing humans on the moon in late 2024 by 'several years,' just days after it pushed back its initial target date, citing cost overruns and lawsuits." In this woke age, I imagine NASA thinks that "race" means skin color rather than speed. Tip to Instapundit.

China tests a more kinetic means of disrupting supply chains.

Iran's nutball-dominated theocracy has lots of problems. But while Allah's helping hand is not evident, the nutballs still have hope.

Italy sells some of the rope that China wants to use to hang the West. Tar. Feathers. More tar. More feathers. Via Instapundit.

Cannon fodder: "Last night border security forces in Lithuania, Latvia, and especially Poland reported hundreds of attempts to breach their borders, with migrants pushed by Belarusian security forces, instructed to throw tree trunks and branches at the concertina wire separating the borders, to cut wire fences with wire cutters provided by Lukashenka’s forces, and to hurl rocks at the border guards, police and the military standing their ground on the other side of NATO/EU borders." Will NATO and the EU impose penalties on Belarus and it's patron Russia?

To be fair, the news media has worked very hard to forfeit trust in their integrity. Via Instapundit.

China isn't only trying to gain influence over Washington, D.C.: "Beijing does not limit itself to the national level. Beijing also runs systematic campaigns to influence subnational — that is, state and local — governments."

China will get old before it gets rich. While China will still have the second-largest economy in the world behind America, that won't be enough to fulfill Xi's China Dream of a world-straddling China. And what are the internal implications of the Chinese Communist Party unable to fulfill its promise of ever-expanding prosperity?

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "Astronauts were forced to take cover on the International Space Station after a Russian anti-satellite test generated debris, according to the U.S. State Department."

The war against Iran in Iraq continues. Is this a gift to Iran? "Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer set up a vote this week to advance a major defense funding bill and said it will include a provision to repeal decades-old Iraq war powers." The Democrats still get sad thinking about room-temperature Soleimani, I guess. Or just a premature "mission accomplished" statement?

Is Russia really threatening invasion or is this warning issued with certainty that Russia won't? "NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has assured Ukraine of the alliance’s backing amid what he called an 'unusual concentration' of Russian forces in the area."

Is Germany standing up to Russia or is this just Backbone Theater? "Germany's network regulator said Tuesday that it has suspended its procedure to certify the operator of a new pipeline that would bring Russian gas to the country under the Baltic Sea because of an issue with the company's status under German law."

It began like this: "Artillery shells fired by Russian-backed separatists shrieked into this small town deep in the flatlands of eastern Ukraine, shearing branches from trees, scooping out craters, blowing up six houses and killing one Ukrainian soldier." Ukraine fired back with a drone. And then Russia went all berserk because Ukraine dared defend itself. My view is that not enough Russian troops are dying in their war.

Red Guard assholes in action. Tip to Instapundit.

As long as the Senate is split 50-50, I'm thinking this kind of retribution is premature and dangerous.

Blatant racism from the progressive left is so casual as to be unremarkable today. Via Instapundit.

Democrats are upset that a young man crossed a state line to protect his community (where his dad lived) from rioters. Yet they think it is fine that hundreds of thousands of young men cross our southern international border without so much as a check for vaccination status. Got it.

Get out of Ethiopia now: "State Department spokesperson Ned Price said U.S. passport holders should not expect a Kabul-style airlift if the fighting reaches Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa."

You may recall that I didn't worry too much about the arsenal we left behind being used by the Taliban. Yeah: "Another item not discussed openly is how Pakistan was able to buy the best American weapons captured by the IEA. The official story is these weapons will be retained by the IEA or sold off to local merchants. No mention of foreigners receiving any of this. Many of the $85 billion in weapons and military equipment the U.S. provided to the IRA forces was gone before the IEA took over." They probably paraded what was left. Lord knows how long they can maintain it.

Background on Ukraine's use of a Turkish-built drone to blow up a Russian artillery piece

The Congressional Budget Office says that even in the tightly warped parameters of a ten-year window of partial spending and full revenue that the huge Biden spending package will not be paid for. But "Senior administration officials are urging lawmakers to disregard the budget office assessment, saying it is being overly conservative in its calculations." Yeah, our national debt is so unfathomably massive because for decades assessments have been "overly conservative" in their calculations. 

This assessment by a Singapore official is BS: "Taking sides regardless of issues and context breeds irrelevance." Australia isn't choosing irrelevance by siding with America against China. The idea that you are relevant if you are willing to switch sides on any dispute assumes you have no real commitment to either side. Australia chooses independence and freedom. Australia is choosing relevance through increased usefulness in a crisis. 

Yes, because of Turkey's wavering as a NATO anchor in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Italy has a bigger role in NATO's Plan B where Greece is the front line.

The European Union dream of its own military founders on one reality: "One of the major obstacles in the creation of such a formation is the very nature of the European Union." That is, the EU doesn't have the unity to have its own military. The author is narrowly right but has the broader issue backassward. The European Union wants the authority to build an "army" not for military power but exactly for the purpose of changing the nature of the EU. The EU is a proto-imperial state that wants to accumulate authority so it can eventually strip away the prefix.

Sure, it was good to investigate the Trump-Russia collusion charges. For about a month, if I'm being generous, until it was obvious that it was a Hillary Clinton smear job on Trump. "Lock her up" looks like justice now, eh?

This is a horrible idea: "National security adviser Jake Sullivan raised with his Israeli counterpart the idea of an interim agreement with Iran to buy more time for nuclear negotiations, three Israeli and U.S. sources tell me." Iran won't agree to a deal that doesn't reward them with money while not significantly stopping their nuclear program. Yet the Biden administration will agree to a deal slanted to Iran, which Iran will be happy to keep forever knowing Biden won't dare end it. The Israelis are right to oppose that. And FFS, the original deal is crap.

The military is supposed to have a climate change strategy because changing climate could affect it. Say, the military is worried inflation will have a bad effect on it. Does that mean the military should have a strategy for fighting inflation? Tip to Instapundit.

Doogie Sullivan put U.S.-China diplomacy in 4 "buckets." Bucket one does not in fact have issues America and China agree on. Bucket two has issues we've both worked on--but China works against American interests (although to be fair, so has America). Bucket three is futile because Taiwan is a core Chinese interest that no Psaki-levels of spin and denial can "manage." And bucket four is simply futile. And honestly, I'll need all four buckets to puke in because of how awful our very own Corps Diplomatique Terrestrienne is in advancing American interests.

Hard to argue with this defense of Biden: "In all fairness, though, Biden isn’t the president who chose the worst VP ever. That honor goes to Barack Obama."

The pilot was rescued. But I wonder what happened? "A British pilot flying an F-35B stealth fighter jet off Britain's flagship aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth was forced to bail out of the stealth fighter during flight operations in the Mediterranean, the UK defense ministry revealed Wednesday." I guess the plane was lost. Hopefully nobody else lifts it off the sea floor.

I have no problem with trying to keep extremist views out of our military. But when you muddy the waters with studies that include former military with active duty personnel, how is that related to keeping active duty personnel away from extremism? Honestly, this broadening of the issue seems to indicate the military problem is nowhere near as big as it has been alleged. 

The Army expects to field the military's first hypersonic weapon in the next year or two, with the Air Force not far behind. But they are too expensive to make many. And I wonder about their efficiency compared to other weapons that might do the same job.

The United States is committed to selling F-35s to the UAE. I still have no idea why the UAE needs stealth fighters given that Iran is their likely opponent. I'll be more worried about espionage than comforted by the UAE having them to use against Iran. And if Iran initiates war a lot of ballistic missiles will rain down on UAE airfields. Can we sell the UAE a stripped down version without the coatings, software, and electronics that make the plane effective against top tier defenses? Mind you, I felt this way when Trump proposed the sale, too.

Sucks to be Nigeria.

The deadly leftovers of war.

That's quite the foundation for strong America-China ties: "China’s Communist Party has been, in a real sense, attacking America. Beijing, for instance, took steps that spread COVID-19 beyond China’s borders; Chinese 'money brokers' are enabling Mexican-based gangs selling China’s fentanyl; Chinese hackers and government agencies are engaging in a determined effort to steal U.S. technology and trade secrets; China’s military, reportedly sending social media riot-instruction videos, fomented violence on American streets. The attack on American society has been relentless and ferocious."

I've expressed my doubts about the usefulness of Chinese ground-based hypersonic orbital weapons armed with nuclear warheads. Here are some doubts

When near, appear far.

Are Italian politics really a cause of concern for NATO? During the Cold War, Italian governments seemed to come and go with the seasons yet it still stood strong in NATO. Is it really different now?

China's asset bubble seems to be part of a global bubble. Which isn't nearly as funny.

The headline says Russia is forming a new paratrooper regiment in Crimea. But, "Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu confirmed on Wednesday that an airborne regiment will be activated in Crimea by early December. The 56th Guards Air Assault Brigade will be reformed as the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment." So a downgraded brigade is being moved. And "likely" absorb a battalion already there. A lot (all?) of news about "new" Russian ground units is just about reorganizations.

Traditionally on this blog I distinguished between leftists and Democrats. Democrats could be wrong but weren't fanatics. Leftists might have been Democrats or not, but they were communist or communist-friendly nutjobs. But the the minority of unhinged leftists have, via social media, taken over the national Democratic Party, making my distinction practically meaningless. I want that distinction to be meaningful again. Tip to Instapundit.

Lies in the service of stoking racial hate and fear. Why make stuff up if reality is allegedly so bad? Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Well somebody has to make up for China's past record of building a coal plant every week: "Beginning this week, a new [Los Angeles] law goes into effect forbidding restaurants with 26 or more employees from handing out ketchup and mustard packets without the customer first requesting them. Come April 2022, it will apply to all restaurants." Tip to Instapundit.

Taiwan has activated a wing of its upgraded F-16s.

The Rittenhouse verdict is not guilty. Will BLM answer the alarm? Or does the legal defense of the right of self defense discourage "mostly peaceful" violent protests by left-wing scum? We'll see if the media that got the law and facts for the case wrong for a year works to incite riots.Portland had some violence. But it might have been because if was Friday in Portland and not a reaction to the verdict. There were also protests against the verdict that stayed peaceful around the country. Which is disappointing but perfectly legal. But the week is young.


It's funny how Afghanistan is now "on the brink of catastrophe" only after the allegedly awful America abandoned Afghanistan to the Taliban in Biden's skedaddle debacle. Let our enemies pay to save the Taliban government.

The idea that China will be ready to invade Taiwan in a few years may just be a Chinese information war effort to appear far when near. Recall that in 2017 the Chinese planned to be ready by 2020. Did the pandemic throw off China's timetable?

Substandard navigation skills? The Navy has problems.

The American military wouldn't move to the sound of the guns in Benghazi in 2012 but in 2017 would place soldiers into the midst of many more enemies in Niger without proper support? In related news, the Marine mission set up in the wake of the Benghazi debacle is ending. Letting troops with other missions handle that is now the response. What could go wrong?

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is turning Saudi Arabia into a typical autocratic state by attacking rival sources of power. The rival power sources have often been a little too Islamist. So maybe this helps modernize Saudi Arabia and Islam. But it may also make the Saudi government more vulnerable to coups. Which might ease the path for a truly Islamist nutball regime there. Let's hope centralize power moves on to rule of law quickly. 

Huh: "all the stuff you see about inflation in the news is driven by rich people flipping their shit because their parasitic assets aren’t doing as well as they’d like and they’re scared that unemployment benefits + stimmy checks + 15 minimum wage + labor shortage is why" To be clear, Sarah Jeong is not the sister of Kim Jong-Un, reportedly tapped to be his successor one day in that inflation-less people's paradise. But she's no way rich, I assume. All I know for sure is that our "journalists" define "the rich" as people who make more than journalists.

"Gallup has reported a trend against gun control." When you tell people that you don't need guns because the police protect you; and then defund the police and refuse to prosecute criminals, what do you expect will happen?

Yes, this has always bugged me about our justice system.

True: "[Putin's Russia] is a regime that thrives on the notion that it’s a 'besieged fortress,' as Carnegie’s Andrei Kolesnikov puts it. Western belligerence merely reinforces its self-belief." But it is also true that lack of pressure will not undermine Russia's notion of being under siege. No amount of buffer zone can squelch that cherished feeling of victimhood. And maybe if NATO was seen as the natural body to oppose Russia, disappointment in the EU record would be moot.

Tension.

Pay no attention to the Spike NLOS behind the curtain.

I remain shocked that Assad has managed to hold Aleppo. I thought it was too large to control with his manpower. Is it not as quiet as the media shows? If the city is controlled, how did Assad do that?

Even foreigners realize it is easier to manufacture white hate than find it: "[During the 2020 election, Iran] sent thousands of emails purporting to be from the white nationalist Proud Boys group to registered Democrats threatening physical harm if they did not switch parties and vote for then-President Donald Trump, prosecutors said." And they claimed they had evidence of voting system fraud. Stoking divisions is potentially profitable, as the Russians discovered.

Before China invades Taiwan, China's efforts to undermine Taiwanese democracy continue: "'The long-term military threats to Taiwan are increasing,' said Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington. 'But the more immediate threats are actions taken by China that fall into the realm of hybrid warfare and political warfare aimed at subverting institutions and eroding the psychological resiliency of the people of Taiwan.'" I say Taiwan needs to go on offense over the freedom issue.

Russia is using Belarus to fling Moslem migrant cannon fodder at NATO: "Video footage shows the Belarusian military using vehicles to try to take down Polish border posts and wire fencing. They have used lasers to make it impossible for Polish troops to see what is going on, fired blank rounds and even armed migrants with stun grenades. On Tuesday, footage showed children throwing rocks at Polish forces." And yes, Turkey did the same thing to Europe years ago on a huge scale. Which I suspect was prodded along by Putin, too. If Europeans--and Westerners in general--had more faith and confidence in their civilization, this tactic to divide Europeans would be futile. The Europeans would defend their border and that would be the end of it. Sadly, too many Westerners hate the West as much as our enemies hate us.

The F-35 faces competition in Europe for sales. I'd guess the Finns go with the Swedish fighter. Sweden gives Finland depth if Russia attacks. Not only can the plane fly from roads, it could retreat to Swedish airfields--even before Russia attacks--and operate from there if necessary in a war against Russia.

Was there a police riot at the Capitol Building on January 6th? The video is only now being seen. Tip to Instapundit.

Witch hunt. What, for God's sake, is their major malfunction? Tip to Instapundit.

Non-lethal weapons deterrence is BS. One, weapons can only be more or less lethal. Two, if mobs want to kill you, using "non-lethal" weapons just lets them know it is fairly safe to charge and count on numbers to get up close and knifey or fisty with you. You might as well issue rifles to your troops or police and body armor to enemies and you'd have the same effect. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm so old I remember when Democrats claimed they had to get rid of Trump to restore our government's respect for democratic rule of law norms and institutions.

Don't get your hopes up: "France's foreign minister warned Iran on Friday not to come to the next round of talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with a 'sham' negotiating stance[.]" All France wants is for Iran to more credibly pretend it doesn't want nuclear weapons. How can France pretend to believe Iran if Iran is so obviously intent on nukes?

Are Marine Expeditionary Units an endangered species in an era of direct Marine support for the Navy sea control mission?

Moqtada al-Sadr: "Iraq’s influential Shiite cleric who emerged as a winner in last month’s general elections on Thursday called on the country’s myriad pro-Iran Shiite armed factions to disband if they want to join his upcoming government." Good, if true. But not sufficient if he only wants a free run at being a Shia dictator. I fear we'll rue the day we let that 3-time insurrectionist live.

Via Treacher, Doctor Fauci was asked why he wasn't wearing his mask at a party in a restaurant: “He said, ‘I just decided that if anyone came up that I didn’t know, I would put my mask on.’” Well, it's just science, you know:


Does America have any reason to look down on Chinese bio lab safety protocols? "Federal health and law enforcement officials are investigating the discovery of several frozen vials that were labeled "smallpox" at a Pennsylvania facility that does vaccine research, authorities said." Tip to Instapundit.

Now this seems like only a really fancy website (via Instapundit): "Caribbean country Barbados plans to become the first nation to set up a diplomatic embassy in the metaverse, a virtual reality version of the internet." Call me when sovereignty moves there, too.

At this point because of Chinese secrecy, I assume the Xi Jinping Flu leaked from a Chinese laboratory: "And with the continuing failure to find any evidence of infected animals for sale in Chinese markets, the astonishing truth remains this: the outbreak happened in a city with the world’s largest research programme on bat-borne corona-viruses, whose scientists had gone to at least two places where these Sars-CoV-2-like viruses live, and brought them back to Wuhan — and to nowhere else." Tip to Instapundit.

Could Rittenhouse sue Joe Biden for comparing Rittenhouse to white supremacists given that Biden was a private citizen when he slandered the young man?

God can part the Red Sea and flood the world. I don't think God cares about climate change the way the theologian Pelosi claims: "'For me,' said Pelosi, 'it’s a religious thing. I believe this is God’s creation, and we have a moral obligation to be good stewards.'" Now go and emit no more.

"The Rittenhouse Verdict is Only Shocking if You Followed the Last Year of Terrible Reporting[.]" I guess democracy rule of law dies in darkness. Guess who turned out the lights? Will the media even admit their lies and bias, let alone fix themselves? To Hell with our media. Tip to Instapundit.

Fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

I'm not shocked that Russia revealed the contents of diplomatic notes between it and the Germans and French. What should be shocking is the amount of faith the Europeans place in holding meetings with Russia to resolve their nearly nine-year old invasion of Ukraine. Body bags going back to Russia are the only solution.

Please note that before the Rittenhouse verdict the state of Wisconsin put 500 Army National Guard soldiers--and not 500 social workers--on alert in case the protests get too burny and shooty.

Good job: "US intelligence agencies found evidence this year of construction work on what they believed was a secret Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates, which was stopped after Washington’s intervention, according to a report on Friday." And the UAE wants to buy F-35s from us? If the UAE is hedging that hard I'm thinking that sale is a really bad idea. The UAE denies any base or outpost intent. Well, check the definitions section.

Well that's a bit of good news for the Navy: "The U.S. Navy is satisfied with the solution to its littoral combat ship combining gear woes, having accepted delivery of the first ship to receive the new system, service leaders announced."

House Democrats censured Paul Gosar and stripped him of his committee assignments for his mostly entirely peaceful meme. What doesn't outrage the House Democrats is the real problem.

Surveillance.

I don't think an American no-first use policy is a good idea. Our enemies won't believe it. And we will think it obviously makes us safe from nuclear attack.

Birds of a feather: "President Joe Biden on Friday pardoned two Thanksgiving turkeys, saying that the white male birds were selected based on their 'temperament, appearance and, I suspect, vaccination status.'"


I was prepared to exonerate Fauci for helping to, through NIAID, fund cruel beagle experiments and edit the meme post to correct the record. This article said the false charge was based on a publishing error of another publication. Well that settles that, eh? That specific allegation is false. But the story was so focused on anti-Republican attacks that I kept reading. And then I got to paragraph 58 of 75 (!): "The congressional letter [attacking Fauci] did not mention the trapped-beagles study but focused on a different experiment, one the NIAID did fund, in which 44 beagles were injected with an HIV/AIDS drug and euthanized so their tissues could be examined for toxic effects." So there actually were a lot of dead beagles.

Effing China: "Chinese coast guard ships blocked and sprayed a powerful stream of water at two Philippine boats carrying supplies to troops at a disputed South China Sea shoal, prompting Manila to order Beijing’s ships to back off and warn that its supply vessels are covered by a mutual defense treaty with the United States, Manila’s top diplomat said Thursday." I say the response to China's blockade should be a Berlin Airlift (East).

If conservatives were behind this, it would be called racist ethnic cleansing of our popular culture.


Um, they want territory, fear, and attention? The author's reference to Wellington's campaign in Portugal and Spain to wear out France is actually what the West should be doing to Russia. And I disagree with this assessment: "Putin has a weak hand to play; but he plays it well." Please stop.

Rittenhouse said he "made it through the hard part" after his acquittal. Sadly, no. The media and the left will hound him for the rest of his life for failing to accept either a beating by leftist street thugs or a beating by the leftist media thugs. And coping with the fact that he took two lives--no matter how justified he was--will haunt him. It's better than being dead, crippled, or imprisoned. But he has no easy life ahead of him. And he's just 18. On the other hand, he has time for a lot of libel lawsuits to keep him focused.

Poland and other countries in the line of Russian fire are expanding their ground forces, spending more, and happy to have American tripwire forces. For all the complaints about America: "The United States is the favored source of these armed hostages because the U.S. is a superpower and, compared to all the alternatives, the least likely to take advantage of the situation. " It can get worse for those NATO states.

Guam is important enough to attract a lot of Chinese attention: "Guam 'would absolutely need' the Navy’s SM-6 missile for its defense against a hypersonic missile attack, the program executive for Aegis ballistic missile defense said Thursday."

Oman wants to shift from oil revenue to being a transportation hub for the Persian Gulf. So far it isn't paying off. The port of Duqm has seen the new British carrier group visit. But so far I guess it hasn't attracted the United States Navy as was hoped. But Oman's plan would pay off to bypass the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian threat.

Look, Rittenhouse shouldn't have been in Kenosha armed and ready to defend his city. It was a bad decision. But being there armed was not against the law. And rioters shouldn't have been in the city putting it in need of defense. And the city and state should have provided the protection from the rioters. And rioters with criminal records shouldn't have attacked Rittenhouse. And the media shouldn't have spent a year spreading lies about all of that. The bottom line is you're damned right Rittenhouse exercised his right of self defense.

Peace and the Abraham Accords: "Israel is set to sign a declaration of intent with neighboring Jordan on building a major solar power plant in the kingdom that will be used to generate electricity for Israel, as well as power a desalination plant there to send water onto Jordan, an Israeli official said Sunday."

America, NATO, and Ukraine all seem to be taking Russian actions a little more seriously this time: "Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times." If true NATO should be rushing anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to Ukraine before the Russians strike. Russia is trapped between its territorial ambitions in the west and a rising China in the east. Does Putin think NATO will forgive it for western aggression in time to help Russia against China? 

The best social justice requires the best loot. I miss the traditional barbarians who stole the livestock.

I'm not sure why conservatives are complaining about the lack of public results for Biden's cognitive test. Come on, man! The doctors were very thorough, even sticking a scope up his butt in a futile search for his brain. And all they found were a couple polyps. FACT CHECK: Results--released.

Wow, I missed the news about the failed terrorist bombing in Liverpool a week ago: "Iraq-born asylum seeker Emad Al Swealmeen, 32, who was a passenger in the taxi, died when his bomb exploded." Thank God Emad found refuge from the violence that drove him from his home country!

The Left in America has gone nuts. Liberals need to purge these nutballs from positions of power and influence in the Democratic Party. Tip to Instapundit.