Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Passivity is the Mark of Greatness?

America attacking North Korea plays into China's hands?

North Korea has the United States on a hook. If the US chooses not to attack North Korea, it appears weak, and China would look stronger. And if the US chooses to attack, it could be portrayed as a lawless aggressor.

In a full-scale attack, the US would likely take out North Korea’s nuclear program, and China would be spared that problem. China would then claim that it had been busy mediating and had nearly reached a deal when the American cowboys struck.

Really? I respect George Friedman but I don't know about that logic. How does China letting America solve the problem benefit China?

China claims to dominate (where it doesn't claim to own) the region. If China can't solve the nuclear crisis by ordering their client state that lies right on their border to disarm, doesn't that make China look weak?

If America has to do the job militarily rather than China, doesn't that make China look weak in their own neighborhood sphere of influence?

Doesn't an American strike on North Korea bolster America's reputation as an ally while showing that Chinese friendship won't protect you from America?

After so many decades of talking to North Korea and pleading with China to do something, will anyone believe a Chinese claim that they were moments away from a good deal when America jumped the gun and attacked?

And if the world--as opposed to the communist jokers here who already have their "Hands off North Korea!" signs printed--thinks an American attack on such a horrible regime to disarm it of nuclear weapons is a "cowboy" stunt of lawless aggression, the world can follow Anthony Scaramucci's "yoga" advice to Bannon.

If somebody doesn't resolve this problem,* I sincerely doubt there will be any wave of "human shields" from Europe eager to camp out in American cities within range of North Korean nuclear missiles to protect us.

If China's focus is on the geopolitical balance with America, I'd think a demonstration of Chinese military or diplomatic power to rein in a troublesome client would be better than having China watch America deal with China's client.

I think China ending North Korea's nuclear menace would help China convince American allies in the region to stop building expensive missile defenses that also harm China's conventional and nuclear missile arsenal.

*And as I've said, I think that as a bilateral matter we could deter North Korea if that state gets nukes. The problem is that North Korea will sell nukes to mullah-run Iran, which I don't think we can deter with any level of confidence. Destroy the mullah regime in Iran and I'll reconsider options on North Korea.