No Mission Accomplished

Listening to defenders of the Iran nuclear deal insist that without the deal Iran will go nuclear in a year drives me batty. Let me repeat, being able to go nuclear in a year (or any other time period) is a measure--imperfect since we are observing from afar--of technical ability to race to a nuclear device if the Iranians push the pedal to the medal.

The assumption of defenders of this farcical nuclear deal that because Iran now has the ability to race to a bomb in a year that they will race to the bomb without the deal ignores that Iran has achieved this narrow breakout period for the last decade or so. And they have not pulled the trigger yet.

So to believe this claim you have to assume that without the deal, whatever reason was holding Iran back in the past (lack of a warhead design, working ICBM, or adequate defenses?) from making the decision to race to a bomb will no longer hold Iran back.

There is no reason to assume that. Or that a deal will change the calculations of Iran that have so far kept them from making that decision.

It's quite possible Iran thinks they need a decade to get a warhead design, perfect and build an ICBM, and build air defenses, so buying that decade of time that keeps America from attacking them--and providing a cash windfall, too--is a great deal for them.

So yes, no deal is probably better than this deal.