Strategypage writes about the new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement that increases routine American access to Filipino bases:
The U.S. was, however, vague about what kind of support if would provide if China managed to continue driving Filipino ships out of areas claimed by China (most of the South China Sea including Filipino coastal waters) without using armed force.
That's the key. If the Philippines is content to remain weak enough to let the Chinese take Filipino islands without a fight, we're not going to fight China when the Philippines will not.
To get American (and Japanese) active help, the Philippines has to be able to fight and win low-level fights and therefore compel China to escalate to military actions that obviously trigger the alliance:
We can't build up the Philippines to the point where they can defeat the Chinese. All we can do is give the Philippines that "credible" capability to fight at low levels and thus force China to escalate to win and therefore risk drawing in America or Japan.
The Philippines does seem to be arming up to be able to fight the Chinese above the level of fishermen and coast guard vessels that have been bullying the Philippines out of the South China Sea.
With this capability, I imagine that Manila can count on our logistics and surveillance assistance for small fights and China has to worry about our active direct assistance if China escalates to major combat operations to defeat the Philippines.
