Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Being Stronger at the Point of Contact

Japan is not a helpless victim in a comparison to the larger China, as this article explains:

China's $188 billion military budget far surpasses the $49 billion budget of Japan, its biggest regional rival, even if it doesn't come close to America's budget of $640 billion.

China's military is also much bigger than Japan's, with lots more equipment and 2.3 million active personnel compared to 58,000. Consequently, China ranks third on the Global Firepower Index, which heavily weights sheer numbers, behind the U.S. and Russia and ahead of Japan at tenth.

But is China's military actually stronger than Japan's?

Yes, but not where it counts. While smaller, Japan's military is advanced and well trained.

Although I have no idea where that 58,000 figure comes from. In 2008 (according to my 2008 The Military Balance), anyway, Japan had 240,000 active duty military personnel. And then, China had 2.1 million active duty personnel. China's total did not grow and Japan's did not shrink that much.

As I explained earlier, a potential China-Japan clash would emphasize quality and not allow China to take full advantage of their numerical edge. Indeed, China's ground edge would be virtually useless:

[The] war will be fought on a narrow front by Japanese air and naval forces at least a little better than the Chinese and possibly quite a bit better; and not outnumbered very much at all. China will have the depth to replace losses better than Japan can, but I don't think China will get the time to make attrition have an effect on the fight.

If Japan had a long land border with China--like Russia does without the conventional army to defend it--I'd think Japan should worry more.

[PRE-POSTING UPDATE: Oh. I see. The writer mistakenly grabbed Japan's reserve total from that GFI site. Interesting site. But it grossly over-estimates Russia. Stuff is countable. Intangibles are not.

Look at our airpower and all the non-combat aircraft we deploy. They don't shoot but they contribute to the total air power system that makes our Air Force (and naval and Marine air) the post powerful air force in the world.]