Applebaum is worried that we aren't perhaps paying enough attention to keeping Australia in our corner. The Marine Corps presence we plan for Australia seems too small to her in the face of China's growing power:
The Obama administration, as part of its own “pivot” toward Asia, has already tried to stem the tide, announcing a plan to create a de facto base in northern Australia. About 2,500 Marines are to be regularly rotated through. From there, in theory, they could mobilize quickly if trouble arose in Southeast Asia. But in practice, it’s a tiny force with lukewarm congressional support and zero public awareness. Who would back them up if the Marines got in trouble? Who will keep the force funded? Australia doesn’t feature in U.S. news coverage, except in sports, and isn’t on anybody’s political radar.
One, the force is perfectly large enough for South China Sea contingencies where platoons and companies will decide the "ground" campaign.
Two, I sincerely doubt that Congress will veto the spending for such a small force of Marines. Really, how hot is congressional support for any particular location on the globe where Americans deploy? If the Pentagon considers this important, then they'll pay for it out of whatever Congress authorizes the Marines to spend. I doubt the Marines will cut forces for the one place they think they can go back to their amphibious heritage to avoid the budgetary threat of being considered a useless "second Army."
Three, public awareness of virtually any American troop presence (even on American soil unless they happen to live by a base) is zero if bombs aren't going off. That's really not an issue.
Four, again, so what if Australia doesn't feature in American news coverage? They aren't bleeding, so they aren't leading. What has this got to do with whether our military power is sufficient to keep Australia in our corner?
Five, who will back them up? Marines in Guam. Marines in Okinawa. Marines in Hawaii. Marines in California. The Navy. The Air Force. The Australians. Anyone else around the South China Sea worried about China. Heck, our Army will even be willing to help.
Mind you, the broader issue of keeping America powerful enough to reassure Asian countries worried about China that it is safe to count on America to resist the pull of China's call to dutifully orbit the Middle Kingdom is a valid one.
Australia seems perfectly willing to host American forces:
AUSTRALIA'S armed forces will face firmly north and increase their collaboration with the US military, potentially allowing B-52 long-range bombers and drone aircraft to fly from Australian bases, under plans announced by the government yesterday.
Mind you, it would really be helpful if Australia actually funds their defense plans to be able to fight with us rather than just using the plans to bolster electoral battles that lie closer than battles to actually fund the plans. But if Australia is truly worried about our will to help Australia, why would Australia invite our troops in to Australia? As I've written before, we are powerful but we are far away. So Australia needs to be strong enough to hold the line until we can get there.
But don't worry too much about those Marines rotating through Australia. They'll be fine.
