Even if we were not fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, we would not have enough troops to occupy a country the size of Iran.
Further, Congress will not authorize the use of force against Iran. Any attack on Iran designed to take out the nuclear infrastructure would need to last weeks to do a really good job and hamper Iranian counter-attack options. So while we might initiate such a campaign, with Congress in the opposition party's hands I don't know if the President will initiate such a campaign and risk Congress halting us in mid-campaign. If we start to take Vienna, we should take Vienna. Congress might not let us take Vienna.
And anything else like a blockade or a seizure of Khuzestan oil fields would also take too long to bear fruit and risk Congressional rejection.
Which means that our only real option is regime change. If there is a revolt in Iran, with extra troops in Iraq and Afghansitan we are in a better position to hold off a desperate Iranian counter-attack with conventional arms.
There is one more choice to consider, however. The question of whether there will be a war between America and Iran (I mean other than the one in Iraq going on right now) could be answered by Iran:
What strategic consequences ensue from Iran's economic misery? Broadly speaking, the choices are two. In the most benign scenario, Iran's clerical establishment will emulate the Soviet Union of 1987, when then-prime minister Mikhail Gorbachev acknowledged that communism had led Russia to the brink of ruin in the face of vibrant economic growth among the United States and its allies. Russia no longer had the resources to sustain an arms race with the US, and broke down under the pressure of America's military buildup.
The second choice is an imperial adventure. In fact, Iran is engaged in such an adventure, funding and arming Shi'ite allies from Basra to Beirut, and creating clients selectively among such Sunnis as Hamas in Palestine.
I continue to predict that Iran will gamble on adventure rather than go the way of Gorbachev.
So will it be a revolt inside Iran that we support or a foreign adventure to strangle that budding revolt? And if Iran strikes first, will be take advantage of that move to end this three-decade crisis with the mullahs?
A lot may ride on who chooses first.
