Friday, April 18, 2014

Pivot to Sevastopol

If the Ukraine agreement really doesn't ratify Russia's conquest as the price for preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine, we need to pivot back to the Crimea issue, with a particular focus on Sevastopol.

Before Russia formally seized Crimea, I wondered if we could make this a crisis over Sevastopol to limit the damage and end the crisis.

That ship sailed. Russia took the entire region.

But maybe we can return to this idea as a basis for a lasting agreement. If Russia pulls out of Crimea but keeps Sevastopol as a base area after paying Ukraine handsomely for the base, we could lift sanctions.

Couple it with language that adds to Crimea's existing autonomous status within Ukraine to give Russia a visible but nominal victory "protecting ethnic Russians" that can justify withdrawal from Crimea outside of a Sevastopol base area.