President Obama has repeatedly and publicly expressed solidarity with the Ukrainian people—and warned Russian leader Vladimir Putin that there will be consequences if he takes over any more Ukrainian territory. Yet Obama’s administration has so far been reluctant to hand over the kind of intelligence the Ukrainians could use to defend themselves. U.S. officials and members of Congress briefed on the crisis in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that senior U.S. military officers have been instructed to refrain from briefing their Ukrainian counterparts in detail about what the United States knows about the Russians troops amassing on the border.
I understand that we don't want to expose methods since Ukraine is infiltrated by Russian intelligence from the Yanukovich days. But surely we can share information that doesn't tell the Russians anything they don't know about our capabilities.
And the fact that Russia has infiltrated Ukraine would be to our advantage if Russia knows that Ukraine knows enough to make an invasion more difficult and costly.
I'd like to point out that we shared satellite information with Saddam's Iraq about Iranian deployments in their war because we recognized that an Iranian victory would be worse than an Iraqi victory in that war. We didn't have any sentiments of solidarity with the Iraqis at that point. Just a sense of realism.
It's still quite possible that we don't think Russia will invade and we are building up expectations of what Russia can achieve in order to deter Russia which surely has an idea that their military can't match those expectations. I lean to that explanation since I think Russia's military isn't the juggernaut that Putin wants the success of Crimea to bolster. War and actual battles with weaker Ukraine would expose Russian weaknesses.
Yes, mobile hospitals are a sign of invasion. But they could also be a sign that the Russians know we'd see those units and then draw the conclusion that the Russians are preparing to invade. This could be bluff to scare Kerry into a better deal.
If so, why not share information with Ukraine to make the reality of war even worse for the Russians?
And if Russia really is getting ready to invade? It is even more important to share information so Ukraine can prepare. Our intelligence didn't think Putin would invade Crimea, after all.
Somebody needs to explain to the Obama administration that "no-brainer" means you don't need a brain to come up with the right answer--not that you lack a brain to make a good decision.
