Waking Up After the Nightmare

The Tuaregs thought that the jihadis wouldn't be too bad as allies to gain independence from Mali's government. They've learned their lesson as the jihadis are behaving very badly. If the Tuaregs have an Awakening to turn on the jihadis, it would make the counter-attack north next year possible even without the French leading the way. But what might al Qaeda do with their sanctuary until then?

I've figured that a counter-attack north in Mali needs a French spearhead. I've speculated that a full Tuareg Awakening might make the French unnecessary to eject the jihadis. There have been stories that the Tuaregs would turn on the jihadis in exchange for more autonomy within Mali rather than independence as they originally wanted. Living under the jihadis will do that to you.

Tuaregs seem to be turning on the jihadis:

Islamist gunmen fought Tuareg separatist rebels on Monday in a battle for control of the town of Menaka in Mali's northern desert, close to the border with Niger, both sides said.

The renewed fighting came as African leaders put the finishing touches to an international intervention plan to retake Mali's north from a patchwork of armed groups who the West suspects of providing a platform for militant attacks.

Of course, the Tuareg revolt is a bit premature considering that the southern, internationally blessed counter-offensive is at least 6 months off.

Can the Tuaregs match the jihadis in the short run on their own? Would French or American special forces help the Tuaregs before the counter-offensive begins?

If the Tuaregs manage to defeat the jihadis before then, will the Tuaregs decide independence is on the agenda, after all?

And until they are defeated, will the jihadis use their safe haven for something worse than just ticking off the Tuaregs and destroying local cultural icons?