Saturday, November 10, 2012

Three Possible Futures

Tibetans can envy Hong Kong for their relative freedom. Hong Kong citizens can envy Taiwan for their freedom. Why don't Taiwanese seem to value their freedom from Chinese control?

Tibetans continue to resist Chinese control and assimilation efforts despite being vastly outnumbered by the Chinese and despite living in a region that China considers a core interest that Peking will fight for.

China has controlled Tibet for more than half a century, but Tibetans have not learned to love Han rule:

Reports from China's western Qinghai Province say hundreds or even thousands of Tibetans marched on government offices Friday. The protests come amid attempts by China's government to maintain social stability during a political transition.

Tibetans marched on government offices in Rebkong, a region of eastern Tibet, after a series of self-immolations that drew international attention. Estimates ranged from hundreds to thousands of protesters who began gathering on the streets at 5:00 a.m. Many said they were speaking out against China's education system [which discourages studies in the Tibetan language].

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, citizens there struggle to keep China's system of oppression at bay:

Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing parties have emerged as the victors in Sunday’s local elections. After a tumultuous few weeks in Hong Kong politics that saw rolling anti-government protests, the divided pan-democratic movement struggled to capitalize on its grassroots support.

Who knows? One day self immolation may be the only way Hong Kong citizens can protest their status.

The people of Taiwan who wonder if it is worth the price of defending their freedom should take note of what awaits them if they fail to defend their island democracy free of Chinese control.

If the Taiwanese falter, their children will march in the streets as pro-mainland officials slowly gain power. And their grandchildren will set themselves on fire and protest in the streets as their culture is smothered and killed.

UPDATE: Despite warmer relations, Taiwan continues to work to gain recognition in the world of Taiwan's identity separate from the mainland. Interestingly enough, that includes propping up Hong Kong's efforts to maintain democracy in the face of Peking's drive to erase democratic thinking there.

Which is interesting. China is using warmer relations to try to convince Taiwanese that joining the mainland is good--pleasant even--so why fight?

But maintaining that charm offensive gives Taiwan more room to push back with their own charm offensive.

In a soft power struggle, free Taiwan should beat unfree China.

But if Taiwan neglects their defenses and China believes charm is not working or is working too slowly, China's growing hard power could end the smiling and forced good cheer coming from the mainland and force a solution on China's terms.

Charm softly but carry a big stick, eh? That should be Taiwan's motto, too.