Monday, October 10, 2011

Hope is Not a Strategy

I have no regrets for supporting the Arab Spring. Arabs deserve better lives no less than anyone else. Claims they aren't ready for democracy follow on the claims that Asians, Latin Americans, and East Europeans aren't ready for democracy. Shoot, how many of us aren't really ready?

From the beginning, I've urged us to stay involved after the heady moments of regime downfall fade. We need to teach them what "democracy" means, with rule of law and judgment of governance by repeated elections. One election, one time, as Hamas practiced in Gaza is not evidence against "democracy." It surely is a lesson against letting despots participate in elections that will only be used to seize power. But do not confuse what Gaza experienced with democracy.

The Egyptians did not achieve democracy with the military's ouster of the Mubarak government. Egyptians achieved the chance to pursue and develop democracy. This unrest is surely unsettling:

Flames lit up downtown Cairo, where massive clashes raged Sunday, drawing Christians angry over a recent church attack, Muslims and Egyptian security forces. At least 24 people were killed and more than 200 injured in the worst sectarian violence since the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak in February.

I hope that we and our European allies are closely involved in drawing up a path to achieve real democracy in Egypt. I've been clear that this is vital to guiding events to benefit us, Egyptians, and the region.

But if Egypt fails, it is no defense of autocracy as a better alternative. Egypt could certainly end up worse than Mubarak's Egypt. We have the example of the Shah of Iran falling to the mullahs, after all. But to have hope for something better, the old regime had to be swept aside. And if the Egyptians screw up this opportunity, maybe they'll learn for the next time they get a chance. Heck, I still hope the Iranians will learn a better path than autocracy or mullah mis-rule.

People need hope. The Arab Spring has inspired hope. But they need a plan that matches that hope, too.

UPDATE: Unless you cultivate what is growing, spring planting can lead to a healthy crop or weeds. The Arab Spring needs America--we don't "taint" it:

Defeating the militants and fostering democratic modernization requires U.S. involvement. Yet Hamdi quotes Arab sources as saying democracy is "15th" on Barack Obama's list of concerns. Hamdi argues that there is a bitter paradox liberals just don't get: "The Arab revolutions ... make clear that there is no replacement for American leadership, even from the perspective of those thought to be the most anti-American."

Don't let the scum destroy hope because they are the ones with the plan and determination to carry it out.