Saturday, May 01, 2010

Yin and Yang

Taiwan President Ma's declaration of non-dependence is both troubling and reassuring:

"We will continue to reduce the risks so that we will purchase arms from the United States, but we will never ask the Americans to fight for Taiwan," Ma told CNN's Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview that aired Friday. "This is something that is very, very clear."

Sure, it would be nice if the Taiwanese lessened the popular view that of course America will intervene and save them in time should China invade. Too many on Taiwan still think they need to do little and our cavalry will charge in to wipe out the Chinese. If we are to have a chance to intervene in time, given China's efforts to stall our effective intervention, Taiwan needs to arm up and get a harder attitude about fighting China on their own if necessary. Taiwan can fight long enough to buy us time to help if they prepare for that. But it is foolish to carry that line of reasoning too far, lest Taiwanese conclude that Taiwan can only defend themselves for a set period and that we won't be asked to help Taiwan fend off a Chinese attack. The Taiwanese people might logically conclude that it is pointless to resist at all.

Nor is it wises to give China the impression that we aren't part of Taiwan's defense. That can only convince China to resort to war in a crisis.

And in the long run, it isn't good to give America the idea that we are neither needed nor wanted as Taiwan's ally. Our timelines to intervene are so short, that if we aren't thinking that it is our job, the time to work up the determination to intervene will delay us until it is too late.

Does Ma really think it is wise to tell Americans, the Chinese, and his own people that America does not stand with Taiwan?

UPDATE: Never Ma-nd? The Taiwanese still want our help--no change in policy on Taiwan says the headline--or is it?

Taiwan will maintain a robust defense to deal with a possible Chinese attack, a senior official said Tuesday in the first Defense Ministry comment since the president's contentious statement that the island would never seek U.S. help to defend itself.

Vice Defense Minister Chao Shih-chang's comment came amid a firestorm of criticism from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party over President Ma Ying-jeou's remarks, which were broadcast April 30 during an interview on CNN.

The remarks appeared to represent a fundamental shift in more than 30 years of Taiwanese defense policy, which has been grounded on the assumption that the United States could come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.

That isn't exactly denying Ma's statement. Unless the headline is based on more than they report in the actual article, I'd say this is a fundamental change in Taiwanese policy.