So it is no shock to see another round of "we're doomed" analysis crop up:
Are we losing Afghanistan to the resurgent Taliban? The facts and figures set out in the 152-page report the Pentagon sent Congress last week compel the conclusion that we are.
And this from a war supporter.
This has been prompted by a Pentagon report on the status of the fight.
The facts and figures do not compel the conclusion that we are losing. Fighting up? Yeah. duh. We have far more forces and are far more active. The enemy had sanctuaries in Pakistan operating unmolested until recent Pakistani military efforts. Al Qaeda admitted defeat in Iraq--their one-time main front--and shifted to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
And a quarter of the population in key districts support the "national" government is a sign of looming disaster? Since those are largely areas we need to pacify and have lots of enemy supporters, I'm impressed the number is that high. Shouldn't the Taliban be worried that a quarter of the people in their strongholds support their enemy? Indeed, given the general view of Afghans toward a central government in the best of times, I'm shocked the positive number would be that high, period, among any group of Afghans. And the Taliban are not liked at all. Plus other measures of opinion are moving in a good direction. It is simply wrong to conclude from that statistic that we are losing. And I don't care how hard the writer wants to believe it is Obama's fault.
So yes, the Taliban should be worried:
The Taliban guerilla war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is, based on the historical record, not looking good for the guerillas. In the past, guerillas in situations like the Taliban find themselves (hated by most of their countrymen, and losing external sources of support) faced almost certain defeat.
Why are things not looking good?
The Taliban had support from fellow Pushtuns in Pakistan, until recently. But now the Pakistani Army is clearing out one Taliban stronghold after another. So serious are the Pakistanis, that they just moved 100,000 troops from the Indian border and into the tribal territories. This doubled the number of troops there, even as the Taliban have lost half their combat strength in the last six months. Pakistani Taliban are now fleeing into Afghanistan for refuge.
But there is no joy for the Taliban in Afghanistan either. While the Afghan Taliban have considerable support from the drug gangs (which use the Taliban as muscle to protect the production and smuggling of opium and heroin), NATO troops are making a major effort to shut down the drug operations. This is enormously popular worldwide, and especially inside Afghanistan and neighboring countries. That because the local nations, despite their poverty, find themselves with millions of drug (usually the cheaper opium) addicts. While the drug gangs bribe many local officials and security forces, the majority of the population is firmly against the drug operations.
Even among their core supporters in Helmand province, and around Kandahar, the Taliban are losing support. This region was always the heartland of Taliban support (the original Taliban came from the Pushtun tribes in this area), but the Taliban have been having a harder time recruiting fighters from these Pushtun tribes because, despite the high pay (several times what an Afghan policeman or soldier makes), Taliban tactics get these guys killed too easily. A current example can be seen in the battle for Marjah, where the Taliban leadership got out, and left behind local hires, with promises that they would be able to get out after killing some foreign troops. Hasn’t been working out that way. While the Taliban will pay the families of these dead gunmen, other potential recruits will not be encouraged by this generosity.
Are we losing in Afghanistan? Good grief, people, no we aren't. And we won't unless we insist our objective has to be a unified modern state run from Kabul, or conclude we are doomed and must retreat immediately before we seriously get beaten.
Come on, people, fight the enemy. Win.
