In his first 100 days in office, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has turned the corner on years of troubled relations with China.
He has helped arrange a series of high profile meetings between Chinese and Taiwanese leaders, completed a historic agreement on regular flights across the 100-mile-wide (160-kilometer-wide) Taiwan Strait, and opened Taiwan's doors to a sharp increase in mainland tourists.
The moves have been welcomed in Beijing, which contrasts Ma's cooperation to the pro-independence line of predecessor Chen Shui-bian _ a line it said would lead to war if ever acted on. Ma's moves have also been praised in the United States, where his China moderation is seen as the best chance of keeping Washington out of a conflict it is striving to prevent.
The problem is that the lack of Taiwanese movement toward independence does not mean China accepts Taiwan's view of what the future cross-strait relationship would look like:
But for all the enthusiasm over Ma's approach, analysts warn that the bitterness of the past could still return to haunt the volatile western Pacific. Beyond the immediate challenge of conducting complex commercial and political negotiations, the two sides disagree profoundly on Taiwan's future status. Almost 60 years after they split amid civil war, China wants Taiwan to unite with the Communist mainland, while the island of 23 million people wants to continue its de facto independence _ and its hard-won democratic freedoms _ indefinitely.
And China is unwilling to allow any international space that might indicate acceptance of the idea that Taiwan can indefinitely continue their present status:
Taiwan this month launched a bid to join the 16 UN Specialised Agencies instead of seeking membership of the world body itself, in a move generally seen as an olive branch to China. But Beijing said it would not accept the attempted compromise.
"This is simply an isolated event," said Wang Yu-chi, spokesman for President Ma Ying-jeou, adding that Ma's diplomatic truce with Beijing would remained unchanged.
"There is no denying that, overall, the cross-Strait ties have been warming -- as seen in the launching of the first direct flights" in nearly six decades, Wang told AFP.
So China is making no effort to reciprocate Taiwan's policy of warmth and Taiwan says that's just fine. The policy of reaching out to China will continue though China gives up nothing.
And it gets worse from Taiwan's point of view:
Military spending will be 315.2 billion Taiwan dollars (10 billion US), a decline of 10.4 billion Taiwan dollars on this year, the United Daily News said, citing a draft budget pending parliament's approval.
It will account for 17.2 percent of next year's government budget, the report said, but the move has drawn criticism from opposition lawmakers.
"I'm worried that the decline in military expenditures may send a wrong signal to the United States and Japan that Taiwan is short of determination to defend itself against China," said Tsai Huang-lang of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
So Taiwan gets weaker while Chinese determination to absorb Taiwan erodes not one bit.
Yep. China wants Taiwan. Peking would be happy if Taiwan just surrenders so they are happy with Ma's new policy. But Ma can't be warm enough to keep the Chinese from wanting to grab Taiwan if the Taiwanese won't come quietly.
And Taiwan's detente is weakening Taiwanese military strength even as China strengthens its ability to capture Taiwan. And China gives nothing to Taiwan.
This is bad. Taiwan will pay for this policy with their freedom if they don't match their new warmth with a greater ability to keep the Chinese at bay.
UPDATE: Mad Minerva emailed to object that "Taiwan" isn't saying China's lack of reciprocal warmth. "Ma Ying-jeou" is the one fine with it:
But it's truer to say "the Ma Administration says that's just fine." Goodness knows he doesn't speak for everybody on the island, if his plummeting approval rating and all the phone calls to my family from increasingly irate kin and friends over there mean anything. He's only been in office for 100 days.
MM points out the recent opposition mass rally. Point taken. I tend to use the nation name or capital as shorthand for the country as a unit. Old Poli sci training, there. Ma runs Taiwan (you know what I mean) and so is "Taiwan" under that model. I suppose there are Chinese leaders who don't think it is important to reclaim Taiwan, but they don't run China, so "China" wants Taiwan.
If you want far better reporting on Taiwanese internal politics than I can provide, do visit Mad Minerva.
UPDATE: Feel the love from Taiwan!
In an ongoing effort to seek peace with China, Taiwan dropped plans to develop missiles that can cruise to China, media reports said.
An unnamed military official said that Taipei has dropped plans to develop missiles that could travel up to 1000 km. The government made the decision to drop the missile plan after the National Security Council and the Defense Ministry reached the consensus that Taiwan should focus on self-defense rather than develop attack weapons.
I'm sure it is only a matter of time before China responds with similar good will and "moves" all those missiles pointed at Taiwan--by firing them at Taiwan's ports, air fields, air defenses, and command and control facilities, no doubt.
