Thursday, April 17, 2008

You Never Know

I've long since given up on trying to connect the dots to anticipate a US strike on Iran's nuclear programs (which would look an awful lot like war). I've been wrong too many times over the last 4 years as I've read about what seemed like indicators for impending war. I gave up.

But there is this:

The United States has agreed to provide Israel with access to its BMEWS (ballistic missile early warning system). The half century old system uses radars and satellites to monitor the planet for ballistic missile launchers (specifically ICBMs, but any large missile launch is detected.) Twice before, in 1991 and 2003, the U.S. allowed Israel to plug into BMEWS (to get warning of Iraqi missile launches). This time around, BMEWS will give Israel warning about any Iranian ballistic missiles headed west.


When you consider that both 1991 and 2003 were years we attacked Iraq and that we worried about Iraq striking at Israel in retaliation to try and build that "let's all just join together and kill Jews" solidarity feeling, letting Israel plug into our missile-launch warning system in 2008 might mean something.

But it just might mean that the Iranians are so loopy that we never know when they'll simply strike first rather than strike back in response to our actions.

Or it might mean that Israel is getting ready to strike Iran.

Or it might mean we just want to put psychological pressure on Iran hoping they believe we are on the verge of attacking unless Tehran backs down over their nuclear programs.

It's hard to say.

Which is why I wonder if our accidental shipment of nuclear triggers to Taiwan was really an accident at all. With Chinese capabilities to invade Taiwan increasing, perhaps we want to install a little bit more uncertainty into Peking's calculations by planting the idea that maybe Taiwan has nukes after all.

It's probably just an error. Governments are more prone to that than clever plots that succeed.

But you never know. It usually only becomes obvious after the fact.