Strategypage writes:
In Afghanistan, or, actually, across the border in Pakistan, al Qaeda has established bases it was unable to maintain in Iraq. Some of the terrorist camps in Pakistan have been there since 2002, but al Qaeda, admitting defeat in Iraq, has sifted people, cash and energy to Pakistan and Afghanistan. The terrorists are having a very different experience on each side of the border. In Afghanistan, the Taliban and al Qaeda are betting beaten. High losses, and lost influence, mark the past few years operations in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, there is much less police and military influence with the terrorists, and the tribal areas along the border have become a rest and rebuilding area for the Taliban and al Qaeda.
This makes more sense. I've already noted the new nature of the war with Afghanistan and Pakistan merging into a Taliban Campaign because of increased jihadi activity in Pakistan. And al Qaeda is putting more resources into the area, but that is because they've admitted defeat in Iraq. Their effort to create a haven in Somalia failed and heading back to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region is their only option left. The real question is whether al Qaeda goes west to Afghanistan or east to Pakistan to wage war.
Remember, we plan to send more troops to Afghanistan next year not to hang by our fingernails in the face of advancing Taliban and al Qaeda but to go on offense across a broader battle space.
And we will work to erase the border that our enemies ignore in this Taliban War (from my Jane's email updates:
NATO assets and the armed forces of Afghanistan and Pakistan are attempting to constrain the Taliban's ability to move across the Afghan-Pakistani border, according to NATO sources. The three partners aim to reduce the Taliban's tactical freedom along the 1,700 km frontier by creating new border control centres to share intelligence as NATO forces in Afghanistan, especially in the country's southern region, have been hampered by the Taliban's operational ease in retreating across the mountainous border to safe areas in Pakistan[.]
Al Qaeda will find its Pakistan sanctuary isn't what they hoped it would be. We're coming for bin Laden.
And we shall see how our anti-Iraq War groups deal with this new campaign. They were surely enthusiastic about a hypotheical war inside Pakistan to hunt bin Laden as an alternative to fighting in Iraq. Let's see how happy they are with an actual campaign inside Pakistan.
