Iran's local quisling, Muqtada al Sadr, is still alive and walking (and yapping) freely, to my continued amazement. Already defeated in two uprisings, I suspect we will see him in a third, when Iran makes another serious attempt to destroy a free, pro-American Iraq. The Shias may not be willing to follow Sadr, but if the Iranians fully back a Sadr-led pro-Iran coup and infiltrate Iranian spooks to pose as Shia Iraqis, it could have a chance at succeeding long enough to convince Americans to pull out in frustration, leaving Iraqis at the mercy of well-financed and armed thugs from Iran.
Today, with the Sunni resistance faltering and Sadr weakened, Iran would face a choice of escalating or retreating. While the last year saw the Iranians introduce EFPs and increase their support for Iranian stooges in Iraq, no major effort has taken place.
Or has it? Was Round Three really round one for Iran?
Iran's state-run media have de facto confirmed that this was no spontaneous "uprising." Rather, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) tried to seize control of Iraq's second-largest city using local Shiite militias as a Trojan horse.
My idea was right:
I've worried that the next enemy we might have to face inside Iraq would be Iran. But given that Iran failed at the level of supporting and leading local Iraqi stooges, might we see Tehran escalate rather than see their efforts fail? Might the next step be fully formed Iranian light infantry units that enter Iraq and call themselves "Iraqis?"
Sadr lost Round Three. But the campaign may yet become one between Iraq and Iran. Since Iran has been at war with us for three decades since seizing our Tehran embassy, I hope we won't be too stupid to see who we need to stand with in that showdown.
I just might have missed that it already happened.
Our side's victory might have been greater than it appeared to me. And it would mean that our press got Round Three even more wrong than I though possible. God, they suck.
I hope to see more information on this in the near future to confirm this claim or refute it. If Taheri is correct, I imagine we will ferret out the details in due time.
