The calculations have to be complicated by the commitment of our Left to make sure the next president pulls out of Iraq regardless of conditions:
Obama, Feingold, and Reid, who believe “we need to safely [i.e., immediately] redeploy U.S. troops from Iraq.” Whatever misgivings these senators may have felt about the invasion of Iraq in the first place, today we are there. And so is al-Qaeda. Any “strategy to combat and defeat al Qaeda globally” must begin there.
The second bill entails an immediate timeline for troop withdrawal, regardless of conditions on the ground. The supporting evidence for this approach is thin — “the key to ending [the violence] is political reconciliation, not a huge U.S. troop presence.” When Senate Democrats refuse to recognize the gains we’ve already made, it’s impossible for them to understand the way counterinsurgency warfare develops.
So, given this objective of our Left and the success we are having in Iraq, is a strategic pause more about delaying reductions in US forces this year just in case the new president in January 2009 wants to pull out as fast as he or she can? That is, if a new president will withdraw troops quickly no matter what the situation on the ground is, if the military thinks it needs 10 brigades through 2009, wouldn't it be better to have 15 on the ground in January 2009 so that a new president has to ask the Pentagon for plans to withdraw?
Then the military could draw up plans to withdraw a brigade or so per month, present it sometime in June or July, and then hopefully have Congress review it in September after summer recess.
On the other hand, should a candidate win in November who is determined to fight, the reduction in force to eliminate excess forces could begin that month with the confidence that the new president will maintain the numbers needed to win.
A strategic pause to evaluate troop levels needed to win makes sense in strictly military terms.
But in political terms, this is more like strategic insurance. We are in a race between winning and retreating. If some of us are determined to run, I say make them run farther to get to the same place. We might win with the extra distance to go and time purchased.
