Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Back to the Drawing Board

China came close to nullifying those conventional force comparisons that seem to many observers to indicate that Taiwan can hold off China should China attack Taiwan:

Taiwan averted a military catastrophe recently when it discovered that a new military communications system had been compromised by a Chinese spy, who had bought secret codes from an employee of the American supplier. Now the codes could be changed, but if the Chinese theft had not been discovered, China could have disrupted Taiwanese air-defense communications during an attack.


Or hold off China long enough for us to help, anyway.

At a stroke, China could have negated the need to take out Taiwan's air defenses with conventional attacks on radars, missile sites, and command and control.

The effort also indicates to me that the Chinese plan to hit Taiwan hard and fast. A simple one-dimensional missile barrage strategy or blockade strategy would not benefit from such an air defense take down. Taiwan would then have time to correct the problem once discovered.

No, when you want to take down an enemy's air defenses it is because you want to get your aircraft close enough to drop bombs and missiles or land troops without being shot down. Chinese aircraft able to fly at will could take out Taiwanese defenses and knock out aircraft on the ground and missile batteries that could threaten ships approaching Taiwan.

The Chinese keep looking for novel ways to short-circuit the usual measures of military power. This one failed. What else are they doing that we don't know about?