I wondered if Asgari was planted by the Iranians to produce the NIE they got.
James Lewis seems on board with this idea:
The new NIE might be the result of Iranian phony defector reports. Since we seem to have very poor human intelligence inside the Khomeinist regime, the Guard defectors (there were several of them) might be greeted by Democrat partisans in the bureaucracy like manna from heaven. The new phony intelligence would confirm their passionately held biases - a routine technique in disinformation ops.
I've mentioned this technique, myself. If you want to hide what you are doing, the best way isn't to actually try to hide what you are doing, but provide an alternative explanation for what can be seen that fits with what the other side is looking for.
Asgari is in somebody's hands. That seems clear. But is he working for whoever is talking to him or is he working for Iran?
He could either have information confirming Iran's nuclear programs or information refuting them.
He could either be talking to the CIA or to another intelligence agency.
If the tale he is telling clears Iran, why would he flee Iran to do so?
If the tale he is telling fingers Iran, he must not be in the CIA's control (unless you believe the CIA would simply lie about what he told them).
Asgari defecting to tell us that Iran is innocent makes no sense. While there is no indication that Asgari is the source of this dramatic reversal in the intelligence community's conclusion about the status of Iran's military nuclear programs, what else could trigger such a reversal of past reports?
The bias of our CIA against stopping Iran is clear, too, in the efforts of some in the intelligence community to sway the press reports of the NIE. As I keep saying, read the NIE summary. It is not the sweeping declaration of innocence that the press has conveyed (with few exceptions). Arthur K. emailed Victor Hanson's comments which quite appropriately highlight the efforts of unnamed intelligence officials to focus the press:
I don't think most in and out of government ever wanted to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. But as we see here, we have a national crisis with our intelligence agencies: their analyses are uneven, contradictory, and may well be partisan-driven. And upon their publication, a number of high-ranking intelligence officials will immediately whisper to reporters in anonymous fashion to explain what is 'really' going on and shape a story for either personal or political reasons.
I'm sure Iran is delighted with all this.
I'm sure Iran is delighted with this NIE summary, too. The only question is whether they are so delighted that they make a fatal mistake and press their luck too far while President Bush is in office.
Oh, and in case you aren't clear about my absolute confidence that a full reading of the NIE summary will lead you to conclude that the press is not accurately conveying the full NIE, go read the NIE summary.
Just so you're clear, you can read the NIE summary here.
