Handing Off

I've been reluctant to say there is a definite trend in our casualties in Iraq since we've had other lulls that ended with an escalation. Casualties have gone up and down with a general upward trend overall--a not unsurprising trend in a long war and not a reason to declare we are losing.

But lowering our casualties is important to maintaining support for the fight in Iraq. We will need to support Iraqi troops for quite a while until victory even when our troops aren't on point.

But looking at the killed in action numbers seems to show a real trend of late.

From March 2003 until October 2005, there have been ten periods when our KIA went down from the prior month. Five were one-month decreases followed by an increase the next month. Five were two-month decreases followed by increases.

Starting in November 2005 and continuing through February 2006, we've seen four straight months of declining KIA. March 2006 will likely continue that trend unless there is an unusual large-casualty event (like an AAV getting hit or a transport helicopter crashing). This will bring us to a record five straight months of killed in action declining over the prior month.

We shall see. I'm cautiously optimistic about the trend. Iraqis are becoming real partners and a real asset in the fight against the Islamists.