Despite howls in some circles (right up to the four star level), the “threat” from China’s 60 or so submarines seems very limited. Rarely are there more than 4-6 boats at sea at any time, often there are none at all, and a number of units (the Han nuke boats, for example), seem never to go to sea at all.
The article goes on to note that Chinese subs are usually accompanied by surface ships--just in case the sub runs into difficulties and needs a prompt rescue.
As I say everytime I link to a piece about Chinese weaknesses, I don't disagree with a word of it.
But this isn't the whole story. Yes, there is a "but" involved here.
Like I've said, America is far stronger than China. We'd beat them tomorrow if it came to a general war (and the availability of all our Army if it came home from Iraq the next day wouldn't matter one bit in the aerial and naval fight we'd have with China).
But this doesn't mean China couldn't use what it has in a narrow scenario in a way that would challenge our achievement of victory.
Take Taiwan, for example. In a war over Taiwan, China needs to beat Taiwan--not America and Japan. China only needs to stall American and Japanese intervention long enough to defeat Taiwan. Once established on Taiwan, the military problem for America and Japan changes tremendously. From intervening with relatively small forces to bolster an ally defending their homes, we'd have to contemplate invading a defended island with no local forces to carry on the bulk of the fight.
China will want to keep their actions ambiguous for as long as possible as they get their forces set for a blitz to overwhelm the Taiwanese defenders rapidly. The Chinese military will want to complicate American and Japanese decision-making by putting Chinese forces between Taiwan and our forces. If we have to strike first to get past them or risk letting the Chinese get in an effective first strike if we ignore the PLAN to get to Taiwan, we will hesitate as we weigh the risks.
I figure the crappy Chinese subs could be sent to mine Taiwanese ports, lay barrier fields at the northern and southern ends of the strait, and perhaps lay some mines to the east of Taiwan to worry US or Japanese fleet units.
Only a small number of good modern subs could really complicate our tasks. Just putting to sea and remaining undetected will force us to exercise greater caution. Recall the problems the British had in the Falklands War and the wholesale retreat to port by the Argentinian navy when the Belgrano was torpedoed and sunk by a British nuclear sub. Indeed, the British declared a naval excusion zone before their subs reached the region! The Argentinians could hardly determine if the Brits were undersea there or not. So even if all of the best Chinese subs stay in the Taiwan Strait to protect the invasion fleet, we would not know for sure if some were cruising to the east of Taiwan looking to put a missile into one of our carriers.
And China is getting the modern submarines it needs--and on a crash basis it seems. The PLAN will have its eight Kilos by next year.
The threat from China's submarine fleet isn't that they'd defeat us, but that they will delay us until it is too late.
