This development highlights the source of my worry:
Taiwan opposition leader Lien Chan and Chinese President Hu Jintao closed the book on decades of hostility on Friday with a simple handshake in Beijing's Great Hall of the People.
The civil war enemies agreed in a two-hour meeting that they described as frank and friendly to work to end enmity between the Kuomintang (KMT), or Nationalist Party, and the Chinese Communist Party and avoid military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints.
"The two parties will work together to facilitate the resumption of negotiations as soon as possible ... and facilitate the ending of a hostile state to achieve a basis for peace," Lien's spokesman told a news conference.
But that will depend also on Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose independence stance has heightened tension with a mainland China, which views Taiwan as its own and is bent on bringing the self-governed island back under its rule.
This isn't just a bout of detente. This isn't the ruling party trying to reduce tensions--this is the oppostiion party free-lancing a foreign policy! How happy would we be with such a development?
It may seem counter-intuitive to worry about the KMT succumbing to the call of the homeland. They were the bitter enemy of the communists for over 80 years now. But the KMT officially believes in one China. They theoretically wanted to rule all of China since being defeated and fleeing to Taiwan over 50 years ago. I think the KMT can be vulnerable to pressure on the point of Chinese pride in what the communists have built. Might they not see developments on the mainland as acceptable? Get rich and be part of a rising Chinese civilization once again. The KMT was not in favor of democracy until the last 15(?) years or so. Pride in Chinese civilization runs deep. Commitment to democracy is still shallow for many of the older KMT leaders.
As I've noted, the Chinese communists need to capture Taiwan before democracy becomes too embedded in Taiwanese thinking to easily absorb without infecting the rest of China. The DPP stands for democracy. The KMT will become more committed as the older age cohorts move on and younger descendents of the KMT refugees grow up knowing nothing but democracy, but we apparently aren't at that point yet.
This also highlights another problem for us. How much advanced technology do we sell Taiwan? We want Taiwan to be able to defend itself. But if Taiwan is vulnerable to a civil war that provides the opening for China to invade and conquer the island, we hardly want to provide a massive military technology infusion and intelligence bonanza as the Taiwanese arsenal and government files are turned over to the Chinese. Sadly, our Plan C (If Plan A to stop an invasion and PLan B to liberate the island if conquered fail) may be to bomb everything we've sold to the Taiwanese into small pieces.
It isn't easy. All the more reason to break out of the Taiwan Strait confrontation path we are on and reshape the strategic environment in a high stakes Great Game.
This decade sucks. I've mentioned that, right?
