In early September, Israel’s military shelled a series of Hezbollah factories and installations in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. The strikes represented the most significant Israeli operation against the terrorist group since the 2006 Lebanon War. It also marked the start of what could well become another military conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia. ...
[Notwithstanding the Israeli strike campaign against Iran in Syria], in recent weeks, the Israeli-Iranian front has shifted further west to Lebanon. There, Israeli experts say, Iran is assisting Hezbollah with what amounts to a major industrial project designed to improve the accuracy and precision of its extensive arsenal of short-range missiles and rockets. In turn, this “precision project” represents a grave threat to Israeli security, because it has the potential to qualitatively alter the missile threat facing the Jewish state.
Well, I've long thought (at least 9 years now) Israel would go to war with Hezbollah over masses of unguided rockets.
As I've noted, Israel's Iron Dome defenses can be overwhelmed by massed unguided rocket attacks and the defensive system can run out of anti-missiles long before Hezbollah runs out of rockets. The quoted article above doesn't appreciate the ability of mass "dumb" rockets to overwhelm Israel's defenses. But it is right that precision missiles are a whole new level of threat.
Which is why I've assumed that war would essentially be a giant Israeli ground raid deep into Lebanon to rip apart Hezbollah and its infrastructure.
I've been wrong a long time connecting dots on that issue.
And there is this:
The United States navy destroyer USS Ramage docked briefly in Lebanon, the US embassy in Beirut said on Sunday, amid heightened regional tensions.
The Arleigh-Burke-class vessel, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, stopped Saturday for a "one-day goodwill visit on the sidelines of its participation in ongoing efforts to ensure freedom of navigation and free-flow commerce in the eastern Mediterranean", a statement from the US embassy said.
Ramage could conceivably stand off shore and help intercept Hezbollah long-range missiles in case of war. Just saying.
More broadly I hope this visit could be a dot signalling that the Lebanese military will stay out of the way of a Israel-Hezbollah war that takes place on nominally Lebanese territory--and that Israel won't deliberately try to punish Lebanon for being unable to control Hezbollah.
Will the addition of precision weapons in Hezbollah's terror arsenal raise the incentive for Israel to really tear apart Hezbollah while Syria and Iran are too weak to stop Israel? I think so.
But I've been wrong a long time. All I'll say now is that it makes sense for Israel to go in on the ground to tear up Hezbollah.
UPDATE: Electoral paralysis may freeze the possibility of any military action until the leadership issue is decided:
In an apparent setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, exit polls show the Israeli leader has fallen short of securing a parliamentary majority with his hard-line allies.
Who knows when this will be resolved.
