Sunday, September 01, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

Yes, indeed, chaotic Somalia is right across the Gulf of Aden from chaotic Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE are working to resolve their split that is encouraging more chaos in Yemen.

This author writes about the need to improve America-Russian relations where we have common interests. But oddly, you won't find a mention of China in the article. Until Russia acts like it faces a threat from China and not NATO or America (as opposed to pretending it is a Chinese ally), fixing American-Russian relations will not be possible.

To be fair, it's hard not to enjoy this development. Couldn't happen to a nicer group of insufferable scolds, I say.

The story when Israel hit an Iranian target inside Iraq framed it as "raising tensions," as I noted in the last data dump. I say it is Iran's establishment of forces that attack Israel that raise tension--not Israel's reaction. This article on an Israeli strike on a pro-Iran target (PFLP-GC) in Lebanon says that Israel's action took place "amid rising tensions." So progress in reporting. This article on an Israeli strike on Gaza in response to rocket attacks did not repeat that framing. But it did say that Egypt and Israel are "blockading" Gaza. There is no "blockade." If there was the people of Gaza would have starved or fled long ago. What there is is a screening of imports to Gaza to restrict categories of material that can be used to wage war on Israel (and Egypt, these days). Although there is progress in reporting by noting that Egypt has a role, too, on the Gaza border, and not just Israel.

Romania occupies an important location on the southeastern front of NATO and needs are help to build rule of law and succeed in its post-Soviet life. So this attention is welcome.

So what happened at the Nenoksa Missile Test Site? And why would Russia work on their version of the Pluto failure?

Russian power projection around their borders requires rail lines. So Russia wants more railroad battalions. Remember, getting our troops to our ports (or airfields) is just the shortest step on their journey to combat.

The premise of the New York Times 1619 project is horribly flawed. Slavery and poverty have existed together around the world for thousands of years--until the West both rejected slavery and initiated the industrial revolution that ended our long human history of endless poverty and misery. If slavery caused prosperity, we'd have had prosperity long ago. Tip to Instapundit.

American natural gas production, use, and exports have soared. I'm so old that I remember when Greens liked natural gas because as a substitute for oil and coal, it lowers greenhouse gas emissions. But that was before fracking made it cheap and plentiful.

If being the head of the Catholic Church is too limited for the Pope, maybe he could be a moral pope for all Christians under assault rather than the Green Pope as he seems to prefer being.

Remembering the time the Soviets offered a helping hand to instead of punching a Nazi. It is amazing that Russia--which could portray itself as a fellow victim of communism--defends the stupid policy that led to World War II in Europe and over 30 million dead Soviets. When Russia won't admit that Stalin effed up royally, what are the odds that somebody in Russia will tell Putin he is effing up royally?  The modern China-Russia Non-Aggression Pact will work out much better, I'm sure.

The war drags on in Ukraine. But why isn't the map in the east labeled "Russian-occupied territory?" The talk of how hard it is for Russia to negotiate peace is misleading. There could be instant peace if Russia withdrew their troops and support for the AstroTurf separatists. Still, I've read that Ukraine is on a subliminal offensive that is slowly regaining territory.

The X-37B breaks its space endurance record.

The Navy has conducted a number of Taiwan Strait transits since last summer.

If highlighting what the journalists have written in the past is "intimidating" them, perhaps the problem is what they have written in the past. Or are outrage mobs only allowed to be formed by people with journalism degrees? Sadly for the left-wing journalists, the public has little sympathy for them and is on to their agenda.

If the military needs to consider environmental impacts of its operations, the people who want the military to do this will conclude retreat and surrender is the best option, environmentally speaking. Peak Stupid gets farther away.

The Army seems initially pleased with lengthened infantry basic training. Superior training will be more important when even ill-trained militias and insurgents are marksmen right out of the box.

See? This is how we know we don't live in a dictatorship that actually targets the media. Tip to Instapundit.

It is interesting that instead of platoon- and company-level anti-tank missiles the Chinese use recoilless rifles. I'm assuming that the 120mm RRs are for companies and the smaller one would be in a platoon's weapons squad. Do the Chinese really think their infantry can't handle missiles?

Israel says their strike on an Iranian target in Syria interrupted an Iranian drone attack.

India, Pakistan, and Kashmir.

Winning: "America's poorest 20 percent consumes — rather than measures like income that can be misleading for reasons explained below — the study finds that the poorest fifth of Americans consume more resources than the average person in 64 percent of other countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)." Why would we emulate their failures?

This is really about Russia rallying allies in Central Asia to resist Chinese influence.

The Russians sent a humanoid robot to the International Space Station. Wait. I saw this movie:



Representative ACK! is absolutely wrong to think getting rid of the Electoral College will benefit African Americans. Sadly, politicians aren't trying to maximize their chances in our system by trying to build broader coalitions that the system rewards. Instead they are using a strategy of whipping up their more narrow bases. And since this doesn't work as well in our Electoral College system, it is causing them problems. But instead of trying to build broader coalitions, some on the left want to enable the narrow-base strategy by getting rid of the Electoral College system. I think that is a huge mistake for our country. Tip to Instapundit.

Sadly we've reached Peak Science well before we reach Peak Stupid in this area: "Climate change is supposedly in full swing, yet fewer people are hungry, fewer people are displaced, and we have to fight fewer wars over resources. Extreme poverty has steeply dropped over the past 30 years. There is no evidence that this trajectory is about to change." Sadly, the beatings will continue until consensus faith is imposed. The religious fervor of these nuts is frightening. Now go and emit no more.

As I've said, I'd prefer this issue be a matter of finding and rewarding friendly businesses and not be a matter of law. But if there is going to be a law, it must be to "bake the cake." I'd have more respect for the activists who want the law if they went to Moslem bakers or videographers rather than Christian bakers and videographers. We'd get better laws as people who oppose "bake the cake" laws see real impact because they can't see the down side in a Christian-majority country.

Contra my skepticism, Strategypage thinks recent news on Sudan's governance is very good news.

Well, read this for a take, but I honestly don't think that in naval warfare that networked swarms of attack drones are any different than networked swarms of missiles or precision bombs fired from subs, ships, aircraft, or land bases. And I don't know why the answer to a lot of attacking drones isn't more SeaRAM or updated Phalanx anti-incoming chain guns (for the "Kamikaze" drones that are actually missiles) on our ships.

The Russian and Chinese governments continue to run interference for the hideous and threatening North Korean regime. Lovely people, the lot of them. If not for the civilian casualties, it would be hilarious if the first targets of a North Korean nuclear arsenal is nearby Russia or China rather than more distant America or Japan or fellow Koreans south of the DMZ.

Quantam radar does not detect stealth any better than other radars, but it is not detectable like current active radars--and it provides much more detail. The name alone is a marketing dream, I think. Tip to Instapundit.

For goodness sake, why isn't there Resistance against this level of malevolence and incompetence?

Bolton wen to Belarus, which hailed a "new chapter" in US-Belarus relations. This is good because Belarus may be the most important territory in Europe today.

I don't find Obama's shoreline mansion purchase hypocritical on climate change grounds. So what if it eventually goes underwater according to his global warming beliefs? Or are you telling me that rich people don't spend tons of money on things they won't use for long until they buy a new expensive thing? That mansion will last long enough for him--and his great grandchildren--to enjoy even if he is correct. Rich people do stuff like that. Which is another issue altogether given Obama's statement that at some point you've made enough money. When does he reach that point?

Democratic socialism versus socialism. You think the "democratic" addition makes the "socialism" core better, but the socialism will always try to hurt you. Tip to Red State.

I think "deep state" talk is overblown, but it has a basic truth about the power of a bureaucracy to thwart elected officials until the elected officials tire of the struggle or leave office. But this is no way to disprove deep state talk.

As far as I'm concerned the college grads with huge student loan debts can ef themselves. If they went to a too expensive school, didn't work, stayed in luxurious housing and never missed an awesome spring break, and possibly majored in bullshit, they can enjoy their consequences. And it goes double if their parents didn't put away money for college, preferring better housing, more cars, vacations, cottages, and expensive hobbies. Or do you really want to punish people like this who were responsible young adults? To repeat, there needs to be a lot of self-effing out there. They can whine to one of the many college administrators out there who add nothing to a college education but cost. But don't bother me with your bad choices.

I recently noted my skepticism that "understanding" the culture of an enemy is necessary to defeat them. I ran across a post that indicates that is something I've addressed before.

New vehicles for our infantry brigades? Are they leg infantry or is the Army regretting having light stuff? If so, just give them Strykers and make them motorized medium brigades, or give them IFVs and tanks and make them heavy brigades. Perhaps my puzzlement seems odd given my article in Army magazine on giving infantry brigades tanks. But to be fair I'd rather heavy up our leg infantry to have fewer of those brigades. My suggestion is just a shot of reality if we keep light infantry and expect them to survive on a high intensity battlefield.

Yes, what on Earth are the South Koreans thinking? Has South Korea decided this is the most important problem they have these days? Or are they simply tired of freedom and prosperity? Because they have enemies who can fix that for them.

An American warship conducted a FONOP near two Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea on August 28th to protest excessive territorial claims. One of these days the Chinese are going to ram or fire on one of our ships. I hope we are prepared for that.

Amidst the mockery of the buy Greenland issue (because Orange Man Bad), I did note that China's ambitions make this a serious issue. So yeah.

What's up with this odd DARPA request? By the time this is published I hope we haven't found out we worried about a mineshaft gap developing. Tip to Instapundit.

Wow. For the first time in a long time I have hope that we might have passed Peak Stupid.

The European Union's chief diplomat, Mogherini, says any US deal with Iran must keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Of course she says that. If she didn't exist the world's thug dictators would have to invent her.

Where progress toward self-destructive Peak Stupid is always measured as half the distance to the goal line.

Speaking of clusterf*cks. Thank God for UN forces to keep a lid on the potential for much worse. Seriously.

India is hardly a saint, but if Pakistan's prime minister says something about Kashmir--even in the New York Times--I'm inclined to think it is the opposite.

You couldn't, by contrast, put a trained elephant in a circus act without being condemned for animal cruelty. Tip to Instapundit.

An American special operations C-130 flew through the Taiwan Strait in international waters, perhaps overwatched by an American electronic surveillance plane.

"So, thank you, dear left, for your utter disdain for democratic process and for your absolutely batshit crazy, foaming-at-the-mouth, hysterical and hyperbolic consistent daily (over)reaction to Trump and Leave. You just don’t know when to stop, do you?" That really says all you need to know about 2020, doesn't it? So the Resistance types can continue to hate me. Even as the Trump fanboys (and girls) can hate me for not seeing 3-D chess in every presidential Tweet. Tip to Instapundit.

And yes, with all the racisty racists running around--especially in those small rectangular racisty racist states with too many electoral votes and too few organic markets, how on Earth did Barack Obama win two elections handily? You'd think that a country built on racism could do better than that in rigging elections and suppressing votes, no? And I'll say it again, I find it really odd that the racism finally manifested in 2016 when there was no African-American candidate running for president.

Trump says that while we would like to reduce our troops in Afghanistan by a third, he doesn't see a complete withdrawal any time soon.

Okay, I want Ray Cline's formula for measuring national power handy in case I need it. I'm shocked I didn't run across this in college. Or maybe I did and I forgot it.

This is no way to get past Peak Stupid. And it is pretty horrifying legal system abuse, too. Tip to Instapundit.

Representative ACK!'s mental health problem shouldn't be our nation's fiscal problem.

India's hope for a multi-polar Asia in which India can diplomatically maneuver requires a powerful but distant America engaged in Asia, and requires smaller regional powers like Russia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia to have the ability to balance the Chinese behemoth. Otherwise India is just a weaker power that China can exert pressure on to achieve Chinese objectives. Of course, in this thinking China has to be accepted as one of the multiple power poles in Asia. As long as China plays by the rules that India thinks are in India's interests. Good luck with that.

Best and brightest, indeed.

I think even a Snopes fact-check on this satire would rule it true. My observation that feminists are merely the women's auxiliary of the Democratic party rather than truly pro-women holds true broadly for any identity group in the Democratic orbit.

If you don't find this hilarious there is no hope for you. Critics saying it was a "secret" photo ignore that Iran knows what happened at the site--they are right on the ground and are digging through it--and Iran knows we have satellites. Nor do we know if it really is a secret photo. But other than that ...

Does I'm sorry you weren't fired sooner and I'm sorry you aren't in prison count?

We are not going to reach Peak Stupid at this rate. Seriously.

The United States under Trump did the right thing by ending the Obama era refusal to sell Ukraine any weapons to resist Russia's invasion and occupation. So why on Earth is Trump delaying the delivery of weapons? Assuming the story is true as to the framing, of course. The quotes by Democratic lawmakers are ludicrous. In theory if the money is released there will be no delay in sending weapons, if I read the article correctly.

Sweden wants to restart its efforts on peace talks in Yemen. Good luck with that.

As I've said many times, nuclear weapons deter nuclear attack or catastrophic conventional defeat. So a whole lot of conventional war can take place beneath the nuclear threshold--assuming good information that doesn't lead those who control nukes to believe they are under nuclear or imminent catastrophic conventional defeat (or accidental launch). It should be obvious that rational people don't initiate nuclear use when the outcome is the destruction of your country when the purpose of nukes is supposed to be the preservation of your country against severe threats. Anyway, that's the India-Pakistan situation. And it is nothing new if you have any memory of the Cold War.

Additional missile defense for 7th Fleet warships.

Justice delayed. At this point, I assume that at least a few of the Democratic candidates for 2020 think they should be able to vote. Tip to Instapundit.

This article says America needs allies to give it a more comfortable margin to turn back the threat of a rising China setting an international order based on its own authoritarian government. And our allies need to help us resist China or it will be a close contest between America and China. I've basically been saying that for some time.

If a scandal falls in a forest of loving media trees, does it make a story?

North Korea says diplomacy is kind of dead. I never had hopes that nuclear talks would work, frankly. I accepted talks to buy time to get ready to hit North Korea's nuclear infrastructure. I just don't know if we've waited too long.

I know I don't have a fancy journalism degree, but isn't this guy saying Netanyahu is anti-Semitic? Just when did opposing Netanyahu become the standard for proving you aren't anti-Semitic? Do Israelis know this? I mean, I think Netanyahu has set the record for being leader of Israel.

If you have to dig this deep to find anti-Moslem behavior, I think it is safe to say that America is basically fine. Maybe direct your Twitter mob toward China where true outrages are taking place every day on a grand scale.